近35年吉林省玉米气候适宜度及其变化
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摘要
利用吉林省50个气象站1981～2015年的气象数据及玉米产量数据,利用模糊数学方法建立吉林省分区域玉米逐旬温度、降水、日照时数和气候适宜度模型,并利用加权分析法计算玉米全生育期、营养生长期、营养生长与生殖生长并进期、生殖生长期的单要素适宜度和气候适宜度,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:玉米全生育期、营养生长期各区域基本是日照时数适宜度最高,其次是温度适宜度,降水适宜度最低;并进期多数情况下温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度仍然最低;而生殖生长期日照时数适宜度最高,温度和降水适宜度不同区域不同年份高低不定。因此,水分是影响吉林省玉米生长发育的主要关键气象因子。各时期降水适宜度均呈西低东高的特点,导致气候适宜度基本也是西低东高。气候适宜度在各区域生殖生长期以及东部的并进期呈不显著上升趋势,其他各生育时期各区域均呈不显著的下降趋势。
Based on yield data of maize and daily meteorological data from1981 to 2015 of 50 automatic meteorological stations, temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and climate suitability models were established in every ten days in each region with the method of fuzzy mathematical method. Then suitability of single factor and climate suitability in the whole stages, vegetative stage, stage of vegetative and reproductive, reproductive stage was calculated using the method of weighted analysis, and their temporal-spatial variation characteristics were analyzed. The result showed that in the whole stages and vegetative stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, next was the temperature, and suitability of precipitation was the lowest. Suitability of temperature in most cases was the highest in the stage of vegetative and reproductive, while suitability of precipitation was still the lowest. In the reproductive stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, but suitability of temperature and precipitation were unstable in different regions and different years. Therefore, water content was the key meteorological factor that affected the development of maize in Jilin Province. Suitability of precipitation in west was lower, while in east was higher, which result in the climate suitability has the same characteristics. Climate suitability in reproductive stage in all regions, and stage of vegetative and reproductive in east were rising but not significant, the others were declining.
Based on yield data of maize and daily meteorological data from1981 to 2015 of 50 automatic meteorological stations, temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and climate suitability models were established in every ten days in each region with the method of fuzzy mathematical method. Then suitability of single factor and climate suitability in the whole stages, vegetative stage, stage of vegetative and reproductive, reproductive stage was calculated using the method of weighted analysis, and their temporal-spatial variation characteristics were analyzed. The result showed that in the whole stages and vegetative stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, next was the temperature, and suitability of precipitation was the lowest. Suitability of temperature in most cases was the highest in the stage of vegetative and reproductive, while suitability of precipitation was still the lowest. In the reproductive stage, suitability of sunshine duration was the highest, but suitability of temperature and precipitation were unstable in different regions and different years. Therefore, water content was the key meteorological factor that affected the development of maize in Jilin Province. Suitability of precipitation in west was lower, while in east was higher, which result in the climate suitability has the same characteristics. Climate suitability in reproductive stage in all regions, and stage of vegetative and reproductive in east were rising but not significant, the others were declining.
引文
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[18]侯英雨,张艳红,王良宇,等.东北地区春玉米气候适宜度模型[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(11):3207-3212.
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[3]程叶青.吉林省玉米加工业发展对我国粮食安全的影响及其政策建议[J].农业现代化研究,2010,31(1):1-4.
[4]陈群,耿婷,侯雯嘉,等.近20年东北气候变暖对春玉米生长发育及产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(10):1904-1916.
[5]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(9):2199-2206.
[6]陈家金,陈惠,马治国,等.福建农业气候资源时空分布特征及其对农业生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):1-4.
[7]张艳红,吕厚荃,钱永兰.1987-2012年黄淮海地区冬小麦生育期气候适宜指数时空分布特征[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(36):48-54.
[8]宫丽娟,王晨轶,王萍,等.东北三省玉米气候适宜度变化分析[J].玉米科学,2013,21(5):140-146.
[9]张彩霞,肖金香,叶清,等.近60年中国南方早稻气候适宜度变化特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2015,38(1):45-52.
[10]宋英男,李颖,任学慧,等.1956-2010年辽西地区玉米气候适宜度时空分布特征[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(3):306-315.
[11]代立芹,李春强,魏瑞江,等.河北省冬小麦气候适宜度及其时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(3):399-406.
[12]李树岩,陈怀亮.河南省夏玉米气候适宜度评价[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):751-759.
[13]王连喜,顾嘉熠,李琪,等.江苏省冬小麦适宜度时空变化研究[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):67-75.
[14]金志凤,叶建刚,杨再强,等.浙江省茶叶生长的气候适宜性[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(4):967-973.
[15]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.耦合土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数在山东省冬小麦产量动态预报中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):187-194.
[16]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
[17]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.山东省冬小麦产量动态集成预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(2):191-200.
[18]侯英雨,张艳红,王良宇,等.东北地区春玉米气候适宜度模型[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(11):3207-3212.
[19]宋迎波,王建林,杨霏云,等.粮食安全气象服务[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:32-39.