基于灰色关联度和联系数耦合的农业旱灾脆弱性评价和诊断研究
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摘要
农业旱灾脆弱性评价和诊断是科学防范农业旱灾风险的关键,在区域农业旱灾风险调控实践中具有重要作用。为定量评价区域农业旱灾脆弱性强弱程度、识别影响其强度变化的主要指标,通过改进差异度系数的计算方法,建立了基于灰色关联度和联系数耦合的区域农业旱灾脆弱性评价模型,对区域农业旱灾脆弱性进行动态评估,并根据此模型提出了基于五元减法集对势的区域农业旱灾脆弱性诊断方法,用以识别影响脆弱性的主要指标。在蚌埠市的应用结果表明:蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性评价等级从2001-2003年的超3级水平改善到2004-2010年的3级水平,农业旱灾脆弱性呈减弱趋势,农业系统对干旱灾害的承受能力呈逐年提升趋势;通过诊断模型识别出影响蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性的主要指标有农民人均GDP、单位耕地面积农机动力、农业万元GDP用水量和单位农业增加值耗水量,其中单位农业增加值耗水量与农业旱灾脆弱性的相关性最大。这些结果可为区域农业旱灾风险调控提供科学依据,对促进农业旱灾风险定量研究具有重要意义。
The assessment and diagnosis of agricultural drought vulnerability is the key to control of regional agricultural drought risk scientifically. Meanwhile,it plays an important role in the practices of regional agricultural drought risk control. To quantitatively evaluate the regional agricultural drought vulnerability and identify the main indicators which affect the vulnerability changes,a regional agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation model based on grey correlation and connection number is established by improving the calculation method of the difference coefficient I. Furthermore,a method for regional agricultural drought vulnerability diagnosis based on five-variables set pair potential is proposed to identify the main influence factors. The results show that the evaluation grade of regional agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City had been improved from the grades which is greater than 3 to the grade 3,it reflected that the ability of agricultural system to carry drought disaster had been improved from 2001 to 2010. The main indicators which affect the agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City were per capita income of farmers,agricultural machinery power per unit cultivated area,water consumption of per ten thousand yuan GDP and unit added value of agricultural water consumption. Moreover,the relationship between the unit added value of agricultural water consumption and the agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City was the most significant. These results can provide a scientific foundation for the control of regional agricultural drought risk and promote the quantitative study of agricultural drought risk.
The assessment and diagnosis of agricultural drought vulnerability is the key to control of regional agricultural drought risk scientifically. Meanwhile,it plays an important role in the practices of regional agricultural drought risk control. To quantitatively evaluate the regional agricultural drought vulnerability and identify the main indicators which affect the vulnerability changes,a regional agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation model based on grey correlation and connection number is established by improving the calculation method of the difference coefficient I. Furthermore,a method for regional agricultural drought vulnerability diagnosis based on five-variables set pair potential is proposed to identify the main influence factors. The results show that the evaluation grade of regional agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City had been improved from the grades which is greater than 3 to the grade 3,it reflected that the ability of agricultural system to carry drought disaster had been improved from 2001 to 2010. The main indicators which affect the agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City were per capita income of farmers,agricultural machinery power per unit cultivated area,water consumption of per ten thousand yuan GDP and unit added value of agricultural water consumption. Moreover,the relationship between the unit added value of agricultural water consumption and the agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City was the most significant. These results can provide a scientific foundation for the control of regional agricultural drought risk and promote the quantitative study of agricultural drought risk.
引文
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[31]金菊良,吴开亚,魏一鸣.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.
[32] ZOU Q,ZHOU J,ZHOU C,et al. Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[33]金菊良,沈时兴,郦建强,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(1):1-9.
[34] CUI Y,FENG P,JIN J L,et al. Water resources carrying capacity evaluation and diagnosis based on set pair analysis and improved the entropy weight method[J]. Entropy,2018,20(5):359.
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[36]吴博,赵法锁,段钊,等.基于熵权的属性识别模型在陕西土质滑坡危险度评价中的应用[J].灾害学,2018,33(1):140-145.
[2]金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,等.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398-412.
[3]李梦娜,钱会,乔亮.关中地区农业干旱脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):166-174.
[4]尹树斌,巢礼义,冯发林.湖南省农业干旱灾害特征与水资源高效利用模式[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2005,28(4):80-84.
[5]史培军.综合风险防范:科学、技术与示范[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.
[6]刘兰芳,刘盛和.湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与定量评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):78-83.
[7] Wilhite D A. A methodology for drought preparedness[J]. Natural Hazards,1996,13(3):229-252.
[8] HAO L,ZHANG X,LIU S. Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit[J]. Natural Hazards,2012,61(2):785-801.
[9] Lestari D R,Pigawati B. Drought disaster vulnerability mapping of agricultural sector in Bringin District,Semarang Regency[C]//2018:012031.
[10]苏筠,吕红峰,黄术根.农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价—以湖南鼎城区为例[J].灾害学,2005,20(4):1-7.
[11] ZHANG D,WANG G,ZHOU H. Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2011,21(2):167-175.
[12]杜云.淮河流域农业干旱灾害风险评价研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2013.
[13]宋占智,蒋尚明,金菊良,等.蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2017,39(3):56-63.
[14]王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,23(12):1897-1904.
[15]王积全,李维德.基于信息扩散理论的干旱区农业旱灾风险分析—以甘肃省民勤县为例[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):826-830.
[16]李陶,付强,丁红.基于灰色关联度的集对分析差异系数研究[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2010,37(1):97-99.
[17]陈骥,邹树梁,唐德文,等.基于灰色关联度的集对分析方法在高层建筑火灾危险性评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(5):136-141.
[18]谭星宇,谢贤平,唐绍辉.基于灰色关联度与集对分析的尾矿库溃坝风险评价[J].黄金,2014,35(9):70-73.
[19]王静爱,商彦蕊,苏筠,等.中国农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断与区域可持续发展[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2005,50(3):130-137.
[20]商彦蕊.农业旱灾风险与脆弱性评估及其相关关系的建立[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版),1999,23(3):420
[21]阿拉腾图娅,金阿丽,包玉海,等.内蒙古旱灾系统风险诊断性评价研究[C]//中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会年会,2010.
[22]邵立周,白春杰.系统综合评价指标体系构建方法研究[J].海军工程大学学报,2008,20(3):48-52.
[23]邵强,李友俊,田庆旺.综合评价指标体系构建方法[J].大庆石油学院学报,2004,28(3):74-76.
[24]金菊良,吴开亚,李如忠,等.信息熵与改进模糊层次分析法耦合的区域水安全评价模型[J].水力发电学报,2007,26(6):61-66.
[25]费振宇.区域农业旱灾风险评估研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2014.
[26]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M].杭州:浙江科技出版社,2000.
[27]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[28]马小凡,苏海华,任建峰,等.白城市生态农业经济系统灰色关联分析[J].吉林大学学报(理学版),2003,41(4):551-555.
[29]张文.基于灰色关联分析与集对分析的区域水资源承载力评价研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2018.
[30]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.
[31]金菊良,吴开亚,魏一鸣.基于联系数的流域水安全评价模型[J].水利学报,2008,39(4):401-409.
[32] ZOU Q,ZHOU J,ZHOU C,et al. Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[33]金菊良,沈时兴,郦建强,等.基于联系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断分析方法[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(1):1-9.
[34] CUI Y,FENG P,JIN J L,et al. Water resources carrying capacity evaluation and diagnosis based on set pair analysis and improved the entropy weight method[J]. Entropy,2018,20(5):359.
[35]安徽省统计局,国家统计局安徽调查总队.安徽统计年鉴(2002版-2011版)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2000-2013.
[36]吴博,赵法锁,段钊,等.基于熵权的属性识别模型在陕西土质滑坡危险度评价中的应用[J].灾害学,2018,33(1):140-145.