美国加征关税对中美制造业的影响——基于改进的关税有效保护率测算方法
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摘要
本文结合投入产出模型,提出全球价值链视角下关税有效保护率的改进测度方法。利用OECD公布的1996—2011年国家间投入产出表和WITS-TRAINS网站公布的HS4位编码的国家间双边关税税率和贸易数据,测算全球64个国家制造业的关税有效保护率。在此基础上,基于中美两轮加征关税的数据模拟了关税上升对中美以及世界其他国家制造业的影响程度。研究发现:从全球来看,大多数国家的关税有效保护率均有所下降,中美之间的差距在不断缩小。美国加征关税不能达到对其国内制造业保护的目的,甚至会损害部分行业的发展。同时,其加征关税对中国制造业的影响也十分有限。因此,共同维护自由贸易体系,加强中美双方经贸合作,才是实现共赢的唯一正确选择。
Combining the input-output model, this paper proposes an improved measurement method for the effective protection rate of tariffs from the perspective of global value chain. Using the input-output tables between countries from 1996 to 2011 published by the OECD and the HS4-digit inter-country bilateral tariff rates and trade data published on the WITSTRAINS website, the effective tariff protection rates for manufacturing in 64 countries around the world are measured. On this basis, the data based on the two rounds of tariffs imposed by China and the United States simulates the extent of the impact of rising tariffs on manufacturing in China and the United States and other countries in the world. The study finds that from a global perspective, the effective protection rate of tariffs in most countries has declined, and the gap between China and the United States has been shrinking. The United States imposes tariffs that cannot achieve the purpose of protecting its domestic manufacturing industry, and may even damage the development of some industries. At the same time, the impact of the increase in tariffs on Chinese manufacturing is also very limited. Therefore, jointly safeguarding the free trade system and strengthening economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States is the only correct choice for achieving a win-win situation.
Combining the input-output model, this paper proposes an improved measurement method for the effective protection rate of tariffs from the perspective of global value chain. Using the input-output tables between countries from 1996 to 2011 published by the OECD and the HS4-digit inter-country bilateral tariff rates and trade data published on the WITSTRAINS website, the effective tariff protection rates for manufacturing in 64 countries around the world are measured. On this basis, the data based on the two rounds of tariffs imposed by China and the United States simulates the extent of the impact of rising tariffs on manufacturing in China and the United States and other countries in the world. The study finds that from a global perspective, the effective protection rate of tariffs in most countries has declined, and the gap between China and the United States has been shrinking. The United States imposes tariffs that cannot achieve the purpose of protecting its domestic manufacturing industry, and may even damage the development of some industries. At the same time, the impact of the increase in tariffs on Chinese manufacturing is also very limited. Therefore, jointly safeguarding the free trade system and strengthening economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States is the only correct choice for achieving a win-win situation.
引文
[1]HUMMELS D,ISHII J,YI K M.The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade[J].Journal of International Economics,2001,54(1):7-96.
[2]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[3]李鑫茹,陈锡康,段玉婉,祝坤福.国民收入视角下的中美贸易平衡分析[J].世界经济,2018,(6):3-27.
[4]段玉婉,杨翠红.基于不同贸易方式生产异质性的中国地区出口增加值分解[J].世界经济,2018,(4):75-98.
[5]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Export[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[6]WANG Z,WEI S J,YU X,et al.Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles[J].NBERWorking Paper,No.w23222,2017.
[7]ZHANG Z,ZHU K,HEWINGS G J D.A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis from the Perspective of Global Production Fragmentation[J].Energy Economics,2017,(64):13-23.
[8]BANG H,PARK M.Global Value Chain and Its Impact on the Linkage Between Exchange Rate and Export:Cases of China,Japan and Korea[J].The World Economy,2018,41(9):2552-2576.
[9]YI K M.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102.
[10]ROUZET D,MIROUDOT S.The Cumulative Impact of Trade Barriers Along The Value Chain:An Empirical Assessment Using the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Model[C].In 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis.2013.
[11]DIAKANTONI A,ESCAITH H,ROBERTS M,et al.Accumulating Trade Costs and Competitiveness in Global Value Chains[J].WTO Working Paper,2017.
[12]倪红福,龚六堂,陈湘杰.全球价值链中的关税成本效应分析--兼论中美贸易摩擦的价格效应和福利效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(8):74-90.
[13]BALASSA,B.Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries:An Evaluation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1965,73(6):573-594.
[14]CORDEN,W M.The Structure of a Tariff System and the Effective Protective Rate[J].Journal of Political Economy.1966,74(3):221-237.
[15]DIAKANTONI A,ESCAITH H.Reassessing Effective Protection Rates in a Trade in Tasks Perspective:Evolution of Trade Policy in Factory Asia[J].WTO Working Paper,2012.
[16]CHEN B,MA H,JACKS D S.Revisiting the Effective Rate of Protection in the Late Stages of Chinese Industrialisation[J].The World Economy,2017,40(2):424-438.
[17]段玉婉,刘丹阳,倪红福.全球价值链视角下的关税有效保护率--兼评美国加征关税的影响[J].中国工业经济,2018,(7):62-79.
[18]LEONTIEF W W.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].The review of economic statistics,1936,105-125.
(1)参见世界投入产出数据库官网:http://www.wiod.org。
(2)参见GTAP数据库官网:https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu。
(3)参见OECD-ICIO数据库官网:https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/inter-country-input-output-tables.htm。
(4)参见EORA数据库官网:http://www.worldmrio.com/countrywise/。
(5)参见WITS数据库官网:https://wits.worldbank.org/。
(6)在一些国家某一年份的关税税率数据不可获取的情况下,采用其最近四年的关税税率数据进行替代。
(1)OECD公布的原始投入产出表共包括34个行业,但因为大多数国家最后一个行业的产出为0,本文参考段玉婉等[17]的做法,将其与第33个行业进行了合并。因此在实际计算的过程中投入产出表共有33个行业分类。
(2)服务业行业的关税税率为0。
(3)由于NEPR_GVC(s,j)的计算结果与NEPR_OWN(s,j)的结果类似,故本文选取NEPR_GVC(s,j)的结果进行分析。
(4)限于篇幅,表3仅展示了各个国家制造业整体的关税有效保护率,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取详细的计算结果。
(1)限于篇幅这里没有展示分行业的结果,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
[2]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade is Pervasive[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,99(1):178-189.
[3]李鑫茹,陈锡康,段玉婉,祝坤福.国民收入视角下的中美贸易平衡分析[J].世界经济,2018,(6):3-27.
[4]段玉婉,杨翠红.基于不同贸易方式生产异质性的中国地区出口增加值分解[J].世界经济,2018,(4):75-98.
[5]KOOPMAN R,WANG Z,WEI S J.Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Export[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[6]WANG Z,WEI S J,YU X,et al.Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles[J].NBERWorking Paper,No.w23222,2017.
[7]ZHANG Z,ZHU K,HEWINGS G J D.A Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis from the Perspective of Global Production Fragmentation[J].Energy Economics,2017,(64):13-23.
[8]BANG H,PARK M.Global Value Chain and Its Impact on the Linkage Between Exchange Rate and Export:Cases of China,Japan and Korea[J].The World Economy,2018,41(9):2552-2576.
[9]YI K M.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102.
[10]ROUZET D,MIROUDOT S.The Cumulative Impact of Trade Barriers Along The Value Chain:An Empirical Assessment Using the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output Model[C].In 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis.2013.
[11]DIAKANTONI A,ESCAITH H,ROBERTS M,et al.Accumulating Trade Costs and Competitiveness in Global Value Chains[J].WTO Working Paper,2017.
[12]倪红福,龚六堂,陈湘杰.全球价值链中的关税成本效应分析--兼论中美贸易摩擦的价格效应和福利效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(8):74-90.
[13]BALASSA,B.Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries:An Evaluation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1965,73(6):573-594.
[14]CORDEN,W M.The Structure of a Tariff System and the Effective Protective Rate[J].Journal of Political Economy.1966,74(3):221-237.
[15]DIAKANTONI A,ESCAITH H.Reassessing Effective Protection Rates in a Trade in Tasks Perspective:Evolution of Trade Policy in Factory Asia[J].WTO Working Paper,2012.
[16]CHEN B,MA H,JACKS D S.Revisiting the Effective Rate of Protection in the Late Stages of Chinese Industrialisation[J].The World Economy,2017,40(2):424-438.
[17]段玉婉,刘丹阳,倪红福.全球价值链视角下的关税有效保护率--兼评美国加征关税的影响[J].中国工业经济,2018,(7):62-79.
[18]LEONTIEF W W.Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic Systems of the United States[J].The review of economic statistics,1936,105-125.
(1)参见世界投入产出数据库官网:http://www.wiod.org。
(2)参见GTAP数据库官网:https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu。
(3)参见OECD-ICIO数据库官网:https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/inter-country-input-output-tables.htm。
(4)参见EORA数据库官网:http://www.worldmrio.com/countrywise/。
(5)参见WITS数据库官网:https://wits.worldbank.org/。
(6)在一些国家某一年份的关税税率数据不可获取的情况下,采用其最近四年的关税税率数据进行替代。
(1)OECD公布的原始投入产出表共包括34个行业,但因为大多数国家最后一个行业的产出为0,本文参考段玉婉等[17]的做法,将其与第33个行业进行了合并。因此在实际计算的过程中投入产出表共有33个行业分类。
(2)服务业行业的关税税率为0。
(3)由于NEPR_GVC(s,j)的计算结果与NEPR_OWN(s,j)的结果类似,故本文选取NEPR_GVC(s,j)的结果进行分析。
(4)限于篇幅,表3仅展示了各个国家制造业整体的关税有效保护率,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取详细的计算结果。
(1)限于篇幅这里没有展示分行业的结果,有兴趣的读者可向作者索取。