城镇化、第三产业和房价的关系研究
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摘要
城镇化进程加速带来了庞大的住房需求,房产市场供不应求,房价涨幅攀升。城镇化和第三产业相互促进发展,房价持续高涨危害社会稳定和经济增长。本文选取2008～2017年全国30个省级面板数据,针对城镇化、第三产业和房价的关系进行分析,实证结果表明:在1%显著性水平下,城镇化水平和房价、第三产业产值和房价均显著正相关,城镇化水平的提升、第三产业产值的增长会带来当地房价的上涨,且存在明显的区域差异性。推进城镇化的同时应完善住房保障制度、优化第三产业结构,有效调控房价水平。
The acceleration of urbanization has brought huge demand for housing,the housing market is in short supply,and housing prices are rising. Urbanization and the third industries promote each other's development. Housing prices continue to rise will endanger social stability and economic growth. This paper selects 30 provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2017 for analyzing the relationship among urbanization,the third industry and housing price. The empirical results show that urbanization level and housing price,the third industry output value and housing price are significantly positively correlated under the 1% significant level. The promotion of urbanization level and the increase of the third industry output value will bring about the rise of local housing prices. The price increases and there are obvious regional differences. While promoting urbanization,we should improve the housing security system,optimize the third industrial structure and effectively control the level of housing prices.
The acceleration of urbanization has brought huge demand for housing,the housing market is in short supply,and housing prices are rising. Urbanization and the third industries promote each other's development. Housing prices continue to rise will endanger social stability and economic growth. This paper selects 30 provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2017 for analyzing the relationship among urbanization,the third industry and housing price. The empirical results show that urbanization level and housing price,the third industry output value and housing price are significantly positively correlated under the 1% significant level. The promotion of urbanization level and the increase of the third industry output value will bring about the rise of local housing prices. The price increases and there are obvious regional differences. While promoting urbanization,we should improve the housing security system,optimize the third industrial structure and effectively control the level of housing prices.
引文
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[2]常亮,贾金荣.房价与城镇化进程关系及影响研究[J].经济经纬,2012,(3):50~54.
[3]谢福泉,黄俊晖.城镇化与房地产市场供需:基于中国数据的检验[J].上海经济研究,2013,(8):115~123.
[4]张延,张静.城镇化对房价的影响:理论与实证分析[J].财政研究,2016,(6):95~102.
[5]骆永民.城市化对房价的影响:线性还是非线性?[J].财经研究,2011,(4):135~143.
[6]邓翔,孔红枚.基于动态面板模型的城市化与房价关系研究[J].统计与决策,2013,(12):105~107.
[7]黄庆华,姜松.城镇化、门槛效应与房地产价格变动[J].财经问题研究,2014,(11):99~106.
[8] Singelmann Joachim,The Sectoral Transformation of the Labor Force in Seven Industrialized Countries,1920~1970[J]. American Journal of Sociology,1978,(5):1224~1234.
[9] Messina J. Institutions and Service Employment:A Panel Study for OECD Countries[R]. European Central Bank Working Paper,2004,(3):16~20.
[10]张晓燕,冉光和,季健.金融集聚、城镇化与产业结构升级——基于省级空间面板数据的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2015,34(9):123~130.
[11]彭荣胜.第三产业发展与城市化进程关系的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2006,(10):54~58.
[12]马鹏,李文秀,方文超.城市化、集聚效应与第三产业发展[J].财经科学,2010,(8):101~108.
[13]杨文举.中国城镇化与产业结构关系的实证分析[J].经济经纬,2007,(1):78~81.
[14]王希琼.城市化与第三产业互动发展的偏差检验与优化协调[J].统计与决策,2011,(16):117~120.
[15]陈建军,崔春梅.商务成本与产业结构变动的动态关系研究[J].上海经济研究,2010,(10):49~65.
[16]刘志伟.城市房价、劳动力流动与第三产业发展——基于全国性面板数据的实证分析[J].经济问题,2013,(8):44~47.
[17]高波,陈健,邹琳华.区域房价差异、劳动力流动与产业升级[J].经济研究,2012,(1):66~79.
[18]张平,张鹏鹏.房价、劳动力异质性与产业结构升级[J].当代经济科学,2016,(2):87~93.