改革开放四十年来中国国际收支的演变历程、发展趋势与政策涵义
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摘要
从2012年起,中国的国际收支双顺差格局已经逐渐消失。在未来,随着经常账户内部货物贸易顺差继续下降以及服务贸易逆差继续上升、人口老龄化以及高杠杆导致国内储蓄投资缺口收窄甚至倒挂,中国的经常账户可能呈现出短期顺逆差交替、中期转为持续逆差的格局;随着中国产业结构的升级转型、金融市场的双向开放以及资本管制程度的下降,中国的非储备性质金融账户可能呈现出余额变动不居的特点;随着人民币汇率市场化程度的提高、经常账户余额最终由正转负、"一带一路"倡议的推进以及藏汇于民格局的形成,中国的外汇储备存量中期内有望逐渐下降。中国国际收支格局变化导致的政策涵义至少包括:第一,无论是人民币汇率的波动性,还是中国国内资产价格的波动性,在未来均会显著增强;第二,中国央行的货币政策操作框架将会发生深刻改变;第三,各种资金频繁的大进大出将会增加中国金融体系面临的内外部冲击;第四,中国投资者对美国国债的投资需求将会发生趋势性下降,中期内美国国债市场存在显著调整的风险。
The twin surpluses in China's balance of payments have gradually vanished since 2012. Asthe result of the declining goods trade surplus, the increasing services trade deficit, theshrinking domestic savings-investment gap caused by population aging and the risinghousehold leverage in the coming years, China's current account may suffer from frequentdeficits in the short term and persistent deficits in the mid-term. Along with the upgrading ofChina's industry structure, the two-way opening up of its financial markets and looseningcapital regulation, China's non-reserve financial account may swing between surplus anddeficit. China's foreign exchange reserve may decline gradually as the liberalization ofrenminbi exchange rate regime improves, the current account surplus declines and becomesnegative, the Belt and Road Initiative is carried out, and foreign exchange holdings byenterprises and households increase. The evolution of China's balance of payments has thefollowing policy implications: First, the volatilities of both renminbi exchange rate anddomestic asset prices would significantly intensify; second, the operational framework ofChina's monetary policy would change dramatically; third, the increasing two-way capitalflows would amplify the internal and external impacts on China's financial system; last but notleast, the US'treasury bond market would face heavy pressure of volatility in the mid-term asa result of the shrinking demand from Chinese investors.
The twin surpluses in China's balance of payments have gradually vanished since 2012. Asthe result of the declining goods trade surplus, the increasing services trade deficit, theshrinking domestic savings-investment gap caused by population aging and the risinghousehold leverage in the coming years, China's current account may suffer from frequentdeficits in the short term and persistent deficits in the mid-term. Along with the upgrading ofChina's industry structure, the two-way opening up of its financial markets and looseningcapital regulation, China's non-reserve financial account may swing between surplus anddeficit. China's foreign exchange reserve may decline gradually as the liberalization ofrenminbi exchange rate regime improves, the current account surplus declines and becomesnegative, the Belt and Road Initiative is carried out, and foreign exchange holdings byenterprises and households increase. The evolution of China's balance of payments has thefollowing policy implications: First, the volatilities of both renminbi exchange rate anddomestic asset prices would significantly intensify; second, the operational framework ofChina's monetary policy would change dramatically; third, the increasing two-way capitalflows would amplify the internal and external impacts on China's financial system; last but notleast, the US'treasury bond market would face heavy pressure of volatility in the mid-term asa result of the shrinking demand from Chinese investors.
引文
[1]以上数据为笔者根据Wind相关数据计算得到。
[1]张明:“全球国际收支失衡的调整及对中国经济的影响”,《世界经济与政治》,2007年第7期,第75~80页。
[1]刘瑶、张明:“全球经常账户再平衡:特征事实、驱动因素与有效路径”,《世界经济研究》,2018年第7期,第3~14页。
[2]殷剑峰:“储蓄不足、全球失衡与‘中心—外围’模式”,《经济研究》,2013年第6期,第33~44页;张明:“全球经济再平衡:美国和中国的角色”,《世界经济与政治》,2010年第9期,第132~148页;刘瑶、张明:“全球经常账户失衡的调整:周期性驱动还是结构性驱动”,《国际金融研究》,2018年第8期,第33~43页。
[1]余永定、肖立晟:“解读中国的资本外逃”,《国际经济评论》,2017年第5期,第97~115页。
[1]张明:“中国国际收支双顺差:演进前景及政策涵义”,《上海金融》,2012年第6期,第3~9页。
[2]余永定、覃东海:“中国的双顺差:性质、根源和解决办法”,《世界经济》,2006年第3期,第31~41页; Zhang, Ming and Xiaofen Tan,“The Vanishing of China’s Twin Surpluses and Its PolicyImplications”, China&World Economy, Vol.23, No.1, 2015, pp.101-120;余永定:“见证失衡——双顺差、人民币汇率和美元陷阱”,《国际经济评论》,2010年第3期,第7~44页。
[1]张明:“全球国际收支失衡的调整及对中国经济的影响”,《世界经济与政治》,2007年第7期,第75~80页。
[1]刘瑶、张明:“全球经常账户再平衡:特征事实、驱动因素与有效路径”,《世界经济研究》,2018年第7期,第3~14页。
[2]殷剑峰:“储蓄不足、全球失衡与‘中心—外围’模式”,《经济研究》,2013年第6期,第33~44页;张明:“全球经济再平衡:美国和中国的角色”,《世界经济与政治》,2010年第9期,第132~148页;刘瑶、张明:“全球经常账户失衡的调整:周期性驱动还是结构性驱动”,《国际金融研究》,2018年第8期,第33~43页。
[1]余永定、肖立晟:“解读中国的资本外逃”,《国际经济评论》,2017年第5期,第97~115页。
[1]张明:“中国国际收支双顺差:演进前景及政策涵义”,《上海金融》,2012年第6期,第3~9页。
[2]余永定、覃东海:“中国的双顺差:性质、根源和解决办法”,《世界经济》,2006年第3期,第31~41页; Zhang, Ming and Xiaofen Tan,“The Vanishing of China’s Twin Surpluses and Its PolicyImplications”, China&World Economy, Vol.23, No.1, 2015, pp.101-120;余永定:“见证失衡——双顺差、人民币汇率和美元陷阱”,《国际经济评论》,2010年第3期,第7~44页。