不确定性规避、长期导向与中美经常账户不平衡
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摘要
本文旨在考察国家心理文化中的不确定性规避以及长期导向因素对中美之间经常账户不平衡的贡献。首先,本文从心理文化因素对贴现因素的影响入手,构造心理文化对经常账户影响的简单理论分析框架,得出心理文化中长期导向程度越高、不确定性规避程度越低的经济体,其经常账户顺差(逆差)越大(越小)的结论。其次,在69个经济体1981～2014年数据的基础上,有效验证了上述心理文化异质性确实是经常账户的重要影响因素。再次,进一步量化国家心理文化因素对经常账户余额的贡献:优势分析发现,不确定性规避和长期导向程度对经常账户的解释力超过了财政余额、金融发展水平以及政府冲销干预等因素;外部平衡评估的分析发现,在2014年中美4.36%的经常账户余额差异中,不确定性规避和长期导向因素的贡献高达2.71%。
引文
(1)金耀基:《从传统到現代》,时报文化出版事业有限公司(台湾地区),1983年。
(2)谭之博、赵岳:《银行集中度、企业储蓄与经常账户失衡》,《经济研究》,2012年第12期。
(3)田丰、徐建炜、杨盼盼、茅锐:《全球失衡的内在根源:一个文献综述》,《世界经济》,2012年第10期。
(4)王道平、范小云:《现行的国际货币体系是否是全球经济失衡和金融危机的原因》,《世界经济》,2011年第1期。
(5)肖立晟、王博:《全球失衡与中国对外净资产:金融发展视角的分析》,《世界经济》,2011年第2期。
(6)徐建炜、姚洋:《国际分工新形态、金融市场发展与全球失衡》,《世界经济》,2010年第3期。
(7)杨盼盼、徐建炜:《全球失衡的百年变迁--基于经验数据与事实比较的分析》,《经济学(季刊)》,2014年第13卷第2期。
(8)叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光:《文化与储蓄:基于优势分析的跨国实证研究》,《金融评论》,2015年第3期。
(9)叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光、李东辉:《消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差》,《经济研究》,2012年第2期。
(10)Aggarwal,R.and J.W.Goodell,2014,“Cross-national Differences in Access to Finance:Influence of Culture and Institutional Environments”,Research in International Business and Finance,31,pp.193~211.
(11)Aggarwal,R.,C.Kearney and B.Lucey,2012,“Gravity and Culture in Foreign Portfolio Investment”,Journal of Banking&Finance,36(2),pp.525~538.
(12)Aizenman,J.,2010,“On the Causes of Global Imbalances and Their Persistence:Myths,Facts and Conjectures”,in Claessens,Stijn,Evenett,Simon J.,Hoekman,Bernard(Eds.),Rebalancing the Global Economy:A Primer for Policymaking,CEPR,London.
(13)Al-Awad,M.and A.Elhiraika,2003,“Cultural Effects and Savings:Evidence from Immigrants to the United Arab Emirates”,The Journal of Development Studies,39(5),pp.139~151.
(14)Bayoumi,T.and C.Saborowski,2014,“Accounting for Reserves”,Journal of International Money and Finance,41,pp.1~29.
(15)Benhima,K.and O.Havrylchyk,2010,“When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?”,The World Economy,33(1),pp.107~128.
(16)Beugelsdijk,S.and B.Frijns,2010,“A Cultural Explanation of the Foreign Bias in International Asset Allocation”,Journal of Banking&Finance,34(9),pp.2121~2131.
(17)Blanchard,O.J.,1985,“Debt,Deficits,and Finite Horizons”,The Journal of Political Economy,93(2),pp.223~247.
(18)Budescu,D.V.,1993,“Dominance Analysis:A New Approach to the Problem of Relative Importance of Predictors in Multiple Regression”,Psychological Bulletin,114,pp.542~551.
(19)Caballero,R.J.,E.Farhi and P.O.Gourinchas,2008,“An Equilibrium Model of‘Global Imbalances’and Low Interest Rates”,American Economic Review,98(1),pp.358~393.
(20)Carroll,C.D.,B.K.Rhee and C.Rhee,1994,“Are there Cultural Effects on Saving?Some Cross-Sectional Evidence”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109(3),pp.685~699.
(21)Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland and D.N.Weil,2000,“Saving and Growth with Habit Formation”,American Economic Review,pp.341~355.
(22)Chamon,M.D.and E.S.Prasad,2010,“Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?”,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2(1),pp.93~130.
(23)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2007,“Current Account Balances,Fnancial Development and Institutions:Assaying the World Saving Glut”,Journal of International Money and Finance,26,pp.546~569.
(24)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2008a,“Global Current Account Imbalances:American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings”,Review of International Economics,16(3),pp.479~498.
(25)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2008b,“A New Measure of Financial Openness”,Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis,10(3),pp.309~322.
(26)Chinn,M.D.and E.S.Prasad,2003,“Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries:An Empirical Exploration”,Journal of International Economics,59,pp.47~76.
(27)Coeurdacier,N.,S.Guibaud and K.Jin,2015,“Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy”,The American Economic Review,105(9),2838~2881.
(28)Du,Q.and S.J.Wei,2013,“A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive”,Journal of International Economics,91(2),pp.275~289.
(29)Frijns,B.,A.Gilbert,T.Lehnert and A.Tourani-Rad,2013,“Uncertainty Avoidance,Risk Tolerance and Corporate Takeover Decisions”,Journal of Banking&Finance,37(7),pp.2457~2471.
(30)Gr?mping,U.,2007,“Estimators of Relative Importance in Linear Regression Based on Variance Decomposition”,The American Statistician,61(2),pp.139~147.
(31)Guiso,L.,P.Sapienza and L.Zingales,2006,“Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?”,Journal of Economic Perspectives,20(2),pp.23~48.
(32)Henriksen,E.,2003,“A Demographic Explanation of US and Japanese Current Account Behavior”,Unpublished manuscript,Carnegie Mellon University,pp.1~30.
(33)Hofstede,G.,G.J.Hofstede and M.Minkov,2010,Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind,Revised and Expanded 3rd Edition,New York:McGraw-Hill,USA.
(34)Johansson,A.C.and X.Wang,2012,“Financial Repression and External Imbalances”,China Economic Research Center Working Paper,20.
(35)Kwok,C.C.and S.Tadesse,2006,“National Culture and Financial Systems”,Journal of International Business Studies,37(2),pp.227~247.
(36)Laibson,D.,1997,“Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112(2),pp.443~478.
(37)Lane,P.R.and G.M.Milesi-Ferretti,2007,“The External Wealth of Nations mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities 1970~2004”,Journal of International Economics,73(2),pp.223~250.
(38)Mendoza,E.G.,V.Quadrini and J.V.Ríos-Rull,2009,“Financial Integration,Financial Development,and Global Imbalances”,Journal of Political Economy,117(3),pp.371~416.
(39)Normandin,M.,1999,“Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis”,Journal of International Economics,49(1),pp.171~193.
(40)Obstfeld,M.and K.S Rogoff,1996,Foundations of International Macroeconomics,Cambridge,MA:MIT Press.
(41)Obstfeld,M.and K.S.Rogoff,2010,“Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis:Products of Common Causes”,in:Asia Economic Policy Conference Volume:Asia and the Global Financial Crisis,Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,pp.131~172.
(42)O'Donoghue,T.and M.Rabin,1999,“Doing it Now or Later”,American Economic Review,89(1),pp.103~124.
(43)Phillips,S.,L.Cat?o,L.A.Ricci,R.Bems,M.Da,J.Di Giovanni and M.Vargas,2013,“The External Balance Assessment(EBA)Methodology”,IMF Working Paper,WP/13/272.
(44)Rabin,M.,1998,“Psychology and Economics”,Journal of Economic Literature,36(1),pp.11~46.
(45)Song,Z.,K.Storesletten,and F.Zilibotti.2011,“Growing like China”,The American Economic Review,101(1),pp.196~233.
(46)Spolaore,E.and R.Wacziarg,2009,“The Diffusion of Development”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,124(2),pp.469~529.
(47)Steiner,A.,2014,“Current Account Balance and Dollar Standard:Exploring the Linkages”,Journal of International Money and Finance,41,pp.65~94.
(48)Wei,S.J.and X.Zhang,2011,“The Competitive Saving Motive:Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China”,Journal of Political Economy,119(3),pp.511~564.
(49)Zheng,X.,S.El Ghoul,O.Guedhami and C.C.Kwok,2012,“National Culture and Corporate Debt Maturity”,Journal of Banking&Finance,36(2),pp.468~488.
(1)Obstfeld和Rogoff(1996)的经常账户跨期调整理论指出,经常账户的持续逆差、净外部资产头寸的不断恶化并不能长期维持,一国当前的外部赤字需要依靠未来的经常账户盈余来弥补。
(2)开放状态下的世界利率必然位于两类经济体封闭状态下的利率之间。
(3)除上述5个维度之外,Hofstede新增了纵欲与节制维度,用于反映及时行乐还是严格遵守社会道德规范,但是由于不同国家对于幸福的界定并不一致,且缺乏足够数据的支持,该指标尚未被广泛接受。
(4)如解释变量有p个,则具有2p-1个子集。
(2)谭之博、赵岳:《银行集中度、企业储蓄与经常账户失衡》,《经济研究》,2012年第12期。
(3)田丰、徐建炜、杨盼盼、茅锐:《全球失衡的内在根源:一个文献综述》,《世界经济》,2012年第10期。
(4)王道平、范小云:《现行的国际货币体系是否是全球经济失衡和金融危机的原因》,《世界经济》,2011年第1期。
(5)肖立晟、王博:《全球失衡与中国对外净资产:金融发展视角的分析》,《世界经济》,2011年第2期。
(6)徐建炜、姚洋:《国际分工新形态、金融市场发展与全球失衡》,《世界经济》,2010年第3期。
(7)杨盼盼、徐建炜:《全球失衡的百年变迁--基于经验数据与事实比较的分析》,《经济学(季刊)》,2014年第13卷第2期。
(8)叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光:《文化与储蓄:基于优势分析的跨国实证研究》,《金融评论》,2015年第3期。
(9)叶德珠、连玉君、黄有光、李东辉:《消费文化、认知偏差与消费行为偏差》,《经济研究》,2012年第2期。
(10)Aggarwal,R.and J.W.Goodell,2014,“Cross-national Differences in Access to Finance:Influence of Culture and Institutional Environments”,Research in International Business and Finance,31,pp.193~211.
(11)Aggarwal,R.,C.Kearney and B.Lucey,2012,“Gravity and Culture in Foreign Portfolio Investment”,Journal of Banking&Finance,36(2),pp.525~538.
(12)Aizenman,J.,2010,“On the Causes of Global Imbalances and Their Persistence:Myths,Facts and Conjectures”,in Claessens,Stijn,Evenett,Simon J.,Hoekman,Bernard(Eds.),Rebalancing the Global Economy:A Primer for Policymaking,CEPR,London.
(13)Al-Awad,M.and A.Elhiraika,2003,“Cultural Effects and Savings:Evidence from Immigrants to the United Arab Emirates”,The Journal of Development Studies,39(5),pp.139~151.
(14)Bayoumi,T.and C.Saborowski,2014,“Accounting for Reserves”,Journal of International Money and Finance,41,pp.1~29.
(15)Benhima,K.and O.Havrylchyk,2010,“When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?”,The World Economy,33(1),pp.107~128.
(16)Beugelsdijk,S.and B.Frijns,2010,“A Cultural Explanation of the Foreign Bias in International Asset Allocation”,Journal of Banking&Finance,34(9),pp.2121~2131.
(17)Blanchard,O.J.,1985,“Debt,Deficits,and Finite Horizons”,The Journal of Political Economy,93(2),pp.223~247.
(18)Budescu,D.V.,1993,“Dominance Analysis:A New Approach to the Problem of Relative Importance of Predictors in Multiple Regression”,Psychological Bulletin,114,pp.542~551.
(19)Caballero,R.J.,E.Farhi and P.O.Gourinchas,2008,“An Equilibrium Model of‘Global Imbalances’and Low Interest Rates”,American Economic Review,98(1),pp.358~393.
(20)Carroll,C.D.,B.K.Rhee and C.Rhee,1994,“Are there Cultural Effects on Saving?Some Cross-Sectional Evidence”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,109(3),pp.685~699.
(21)Carroll,C.D.,J.Overland and D.N.Weil,2000,“Saving and Growth with Habit Formation”,American Economic Review,pp.341~355.
(22)Chamon,M.D.and E.S.Prasad,2010,“Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?”,American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2(1),pp.93~130.
(23)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2007,“Current Account Balances,Fnancial Development and Institutions:Assaying the World Saving Glut”,Journal of International Money and Finance,26,pp.546~569.
(24)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2008a,“Global Current Account Imbalances:American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings”,Review of International Economics,16(3),pp.479~498.
(25)Chinn,M.D.and H.Ito,2008b,“A New Measure of Financial Openness”,Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis,10(3),pp.309~322.
(26)Chinn,M.D.and E.S.Prasad,2003,“Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries:An Empirical Exploration”,Journal of International Economics,59,pp.47~76.
(27)Coeurdacier,N.,S.Guibaud and K.Jin,2015,“Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy”,The American Economic Review,105(9),2838~2881.
(28)Du,Q.and S.J.Wei,2013,“A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive”,Journal of International Economics,91(2),pp.275~289.
(29)Frijns,B.,A.Gilbert,T.Lehnert and A.Tourani-Rad,2013,“Uncertainty Avoidance,Risk Tolerance and Corporate Takeover Decisions”,Journal of Banking&Finance,37(7),pp.2457~2471.
(30)Gr?mping,U.,2007,“Estimators of Relative Importance in Linear Regression Based on Variance Decomposition”,The American Statistician,61(2),pp.139~147.
(31)Guiso,L.,P.Sapienza and L.Zingales,2006,“Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?”,Journal of Economic Perspectives,20(2),pp.23~48.
(32)Henriksen,E.,2003,“A Demographic Explanation of US and Japanese Current Account Behavior”,Unpublished manuscript,Carnegie Mellon University,pp.1~30.
(33)Hofstede,G.,G.J.Hofstede and M.Minkov,2010,Cultures and Organizations:Software of the Mind,Revised and Expanded 3rd Edition,New York:McGraw-Hill,USA.
(34)Johansson,A.C.and X.Wang,2012,“Financial Repression and External Imbalances”,China Economic Research Center Working Paper,20.
(35)Kwok,C.C.and S.Tadesse,2006,“National Culture and Financial Systems”,Journal of International Business Studies,37(2),pp.227~247.
(36)Laibson,D.,1997,“Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,112(2),pp.443~478.
(37)Lane,P.R.and G.M.Milesi-Ferretti,2007,“The External Wealth of Nations mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities 1970~2004”,Journal of International Economics,73(2),pp.223~250.
(38)Mendoza,E.G.,V.Quadrini and J.V.Ríos-Rull,2009,“Financial Integration,Financial Development,and Global Imbalances”,Journal of Political Economy,117(3),pp.371~416.
(39)Normandin,M.,1999,“Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis”,Journal of International Economics,49(1),pp.171~193.
(40)Obstfeld,M.and K.S Rogoff,1996,Foundations of International Macroeconomics,Cambridge,MA:MIT Press.
(41)Obstfeld,M.and K.S.Rogoff,2010,“Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis:Products of Common Causes”,in:Asia Economic Policy Conference Volume:Asia and the Global Financial Crisis,Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,pp.131~172.
(42)O'Donoghue,T.and M.Rabin,1999,“Doing it Now or Later”,American Economic Review,89(1),pp.103~124.
(43)Phillips,S.,L.Cat?o,L.A.Ricci,R.Bems,M.Da,J.Di Giovanni and M.Vargas,2013,“The External Balance Assessment(EBA)Methodology”,IMF Working Paper,WP/13/272.
(44)Rabin,M.,1998,“Psychology and Economics”,Journal of Economic Literature,36(1),pp.11~46.
(45)Song,Z.,K.Storesletten,and F.Zilibotti.2011,“Growing like China”,The American Economic Review,101(1),pp.196~233.
(46)Spolaore,E.and R.Wacziarg,2009,“The Diffusion of Development”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,124(2),pp.469~529.
(47)Steiner,A.,2014,“Current Account Balance and Dollar Standard:Exploring the Linkages”,Journal of International Money and Finance,41,pp.65~94.
(48)Wei,S.J.and X.Zhang,2011,“The Competitive Saving Motive:Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China”,Journal of Political Economy,119(3),pp.511~564.
(49)Zheng,X.,S.El Ghoul,O.Guedhami and C.C.Kwok,2012,“National Culture and Corporate Debt Maturity”,Journal of Banking&Finance,36(2),pp.468~488.
(1)Obstfeld和Rogoff(1996)的经常账户跨期调整理论指出,经常账户的持续逆差、净外部资产头寸的不断恶化并不能长期维持,一国当前的外部赤字需要依靠未来的经常账户盈余来弥补。
(2)开放状态下的世界利率必然位于两类经济体封闭状态下的利率之间。
(3)除上述5个维度之外,Hofstede新增了纵欲与节制维度,用于反映及时行乐还是严格遵守社会道德规范,但是由于不同国家对于幸福的界定并不一致,且缺乏足够数据的支持,该指标尚未被广泛接受。
(4)如解释变量有p个,则具有2p-1个子集。