自由贸易试验区对资本流动的影响效应研究——基于准自然实验的视角
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摘要
自由贸易试验区是中国新一轮对外开放的"国家试验田",深化国际投融资管理制度改革,扩大金融领域开放是自贸区建设的重要内容。本文从准自然实验角度出发,基于2004—2016年省级面板数据,采用合成控制法研究样本期内上海、天津、广东和福建自贸区设立对跨境资本流动的影响效应。研究表明,自贸区设立有效地促进了国际资本"引进来"和国内资本"走出去",国际资本双向流动效应明显;整体上,自贸区对ODI的影响效应大于FDI;具体而言,由于各自贸区改革的重点领域及区域经济发展水平不同,导致各自贸区对资本流动的影响效应存在差异。因此,应从完善金融监管、分类管理对外投资、深化金融创新以及与国内市场衔接等方面推进自贸区建设,维护国际资本平稳有序流动。
The free trade zone(FTZ) is a" national experimental field" for a new round of opening-up for China.Deepening the reform of the international investment system and expanding the opening up of the financial sector are important contents of the FTZ. From the perspective of quasi-natural experiment, and based on China's provincial panel data from2004 to 2016, this paper adopted the synthetic control method to study the effects of the establishment of free trade zones in Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian on cross-border capital flows in the sample period. The establishment of the FTZ has effectively promoted the"bringing in"of international capital and the"going out"of domestic capital. Overall, the outflow effect of ODI generated by the establishment of the four FTZs is greater than the inflow effect of FDI. Specifically, the capital flow effects generated are different due to the differences among key reform areas of the FTZs and regional economic development levels. Therefore, the establishment of FTZ should be promoted from the aspects of improving financial supervision, managing ODI in a classified manner, deepening financial innovation and uonnecting with domestic market, so as to maintain the steady and orderly flow of international capital.
The free trade zone(FTZ) is a" national experimental field" for a new round of opening-up for China.Deepening the reform of the international investment system and expanding the opening up of the financial sector are important contents of the FTZ. From the perspective of quasi-natural experiment, and based on China's provincial panel data from2004 to 2016, this paper adopted the synthetic control method to study the effects of the establishment of free trade zones in Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian on cross-border capital flows in the sample period. The establishment of the FTZ has effectively promoted the"bringing in"of international capital and the"going out"of domestic capital. Overall, the outflow effect of ODI generated by the establishment of the four FTZs is greater than the inflow effect of FDI. Specifically, the capital flow effects generated are different due to the differences among key reform areas of the FTZs and regional economic development levels. Therefore, the establishment of FTZ should be promoted from the aspects of improving financial supervision, managing ODI in a classified manner, deepening financial innovation and uonnecting with domestic market, so as to maintain the steady and orderly flow of international capital.
引文
[1]陈卫东,王有鑫.人民币贬值背景下中国跨境资本流动:渠道、规模、趋势及风险防范[J].国际金融研究,2016(4):3-12
[2]黄启才.自由贸易试验区政策溢出效应的个案研究[J].经济纵横,2017(5):92-98
[3]刘秉镰,吕程.自贸区对地区经济影响的差异性分析——基于合成控制法的比较研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(3):51-66
[4]罗素梅.自贸区金融开放下资本流动的动因和机制研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5):75-81
[5]罗素梅,周光友.上海自贸区金融开放、资本流动与利率市场化[J].上海经济研究,2015(1):29-36
[6]彭冬冬,杜运苏.中间品贸易自由化、融资约束与贸易方式转型[J].国际贸易问题,2016(12):52-63
[7]谭娜,周先波,林建浩.上海自贸区的经济增长效应研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(10):14-86
[8]王力,黄育华主编,自贸区蓝皮书:中国自贸区发展报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017年06月
[9]王利辉,刘志红.上海自贸区对地区经济的影响效应研究——基于“反事实”思维视角[J].国际贸易问题,2017(2):3-15
[10]王鹏,郑靖宇.自由贸易试验区的设立如何影响贸易方式转型——基于广东自由贸易试验区的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2017(6):71-82
[11]项后军,何康.自贸区的影响与资本流动——以上海为例的自然实验研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):3-15
[12]杨子晖,陈创练.金融深化条件下的跨境资本流动效应研究[J].金融研究,2015(5):34-49
[13]叶修群.自由贸易试验区与经济增长——基于准自然实验的实证研究[J].经济评论,2018(4):18-30
[14]殷华,高维和.自由贸易试验区产生了“制度红利”效应吗?——来自上海自贸区的证据[J].财经研究,2017(2):48-59
[15] Abadie A,Gardeazabal,J. The Economic Costs of Conflict:A Case Study of the Basque Country[J]. American Economic Review,2003(1):112-132
[16] Abadie A. Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,2005(1):1-19
[17] Abadie A,Diamond A,Hainmueller,J. Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies:Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010(105):493-505
[18] Castilho Marta,Menéndez Marta,Sztulman Aude. Poverty and Inequality Dynamics in Manaus:Legacy of a Free Trade Zone?[J]. Working Paper,2015
[19] Chauffour Jean-Pierre,Maur J. Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development:A Handbook[M]. World Bank Publications,2011
[20] Daqing Yao,John W. The China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone:Background,Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts[J]. The World Economy,2016
[21] Feils D J,Rahman M. Regional Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment:The Case of NAFTA[J].Management International Review,2008(2):147-163
[22] Jenkins G P,Chun-Yan Kuo. Taxing Mobile Capital in Free Trade Zones to the Detriment of Workers[J]. Development Discussion Papers,JDI Executive Programs,2013
[23] Mundell,Robert A. International Trade and Factor Mobility[J]. American Economic Review,1957(3):321-35
[24] Polaski S. The Employment Consequences of NAFTA[J]. Testimony Submitted to the Senate Subcommittee on International Trade of the Committee on Finance,2006,11(9):1-24
[25] Venables A J. Winners and Losers from Regional Integration Agreements[J]. The Economic Journal,2003(490):747-761
(1)数据来源于《自贸区五周年,跑出改革加速度》,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-11/25/c_1123764647.htm,2018年11月25日。
(1)国家外汇管理局《2017年中国国际收支报告》显示,在2017年中国非储备性质金融账户中,直接投资和证券投资均表现为顺差,分别为663亿美元和74亿美元。
(1)篇幅所限,最优权重结果未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,安慰剂检验未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
[2]黄启才.自由贸易试验区政策溢出效应的个案研究[J].经济纵横,2017(5):92-98
[3]刘秉镰,吕程.自贸区对地区经济影响的差异性分析——基于合成控制法的比较研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(3):51-66
[4]罗素梅.自贸区金融开放下资本流动的动因和机制研究[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5):75-81
[5]罗素梅,周光友.上海自贸区金融开放、资本流动与利率市场化[J].上海经济研究,2015(1):29-36
[6]彭冬冬,杜运苏.中间品贸易自由化、融资约束与贸易方式转型[J].国际贸易问题,2016(12):52-63
[7]谭娜,周先波,林建浩.上海自贸区的经济增长效应研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(10):14-86
[8]王力,黄育华主编,自贸区蓝皮书:中国自贸区发展报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017年06月
[9]王利辉,刘志红.上海自贸区对地区经济的影响效应研究——基于“反事实”思维视角[J].国际贸易问题,2017(2):3-15
[10]王鹏,郑靖宇.自由贸易试验区的设立如何影响贸易方式转型——基于广东自由贸易试验区的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2017(6):71-82
[11]项后军,何康.自贸区的影响与资本流动——以上海为例的自然实验研究[J].国际贸易问题,2016(8):3-15
[12]杨子晖,陈创练.金融深化条件下的跨境资本流动效应研究[J].金融研究,2015(5):34-49
[13]叶修群.自由贸易试验区与经济增长——基于准自然实验的实证研究[J].经济评论,2018(4):18-30
[14]殷华,高维和.自由贸易试验区产生了“制度红利”效应吗?——来自上海自贸区的证据[J].财经研究,2017(2):48-59
[15] Abadie A,Gardeazabal,J. The Economic Costs of Conflict:A Case Study of the Basque Country[J]. American Economic Review,2003(1):112-132
[16] Abadie A. Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,2005(1):1-19
[17] Abadie A,Diamond A,Hainmueller,J. Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies:Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010(105):493-505
[18] Castilho Marta,Menéndez Marta,Sztulman Aude. Poverty and Inequality Dynamics in Manaus:Legacy of a Free Trade Zone?[J]. Working Paper,2015
[19] Chauffour Jean-Pierre,Maur J. Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development:A Handbook[M]. World Bank Publications,2011
[20] Daqing Yao,John W. The China(Shanghai)Pilot Free Trade Zone:Background,Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts[J]. The World Economy,2016
[21] Feils D J,Rahman M. Regional Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment:The Case of NAFTA[J].Management International Review,2008(2):147-163
[22] Jenkins G P,Chun-Yan Kuo. Taxing Mobile Capital in Free Trade Zones to the Detriment of Workers[J]. Development Discussion Papers,JDI Executive Programs,2013
[23] Mundell,Robert A. International Trade and Factor Mobility[J]. American Economic Review,1957(3):321-35
[24] Polaski S. The Employment Consequences of NAFTA[J]. Testimony Submitted to the Senate Subcommittee on International Trade of the Committee on Finance,2006,11(9):1-24
[25] Venables A J. Winners and Losers from Regional Integration Agreements[J]. The Economic Journal,2003(490):747-761
(1)数据来源于《自贸区五周年,跑出改革加速度》,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-11/25/c_1123764647.htm,2018年11月25日。
(1)国家外汇管理局《2017年中国国际收支报告》显示,在2017年中国非储备性质金融账户中,直接投资和证券投资均表现为顺差,分别为663亿美元和74亿美元。
(1)篇幅所限,最优权重结果未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
(1)篇幅所限,安慰剂检验未予以列示,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。