中国税收自动稳定器功能的双重约束研究
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摘要
本文的研究发现,以间接税为主体的税收结构和城乡二元经济结构形成了中国税收充分发挥其自动稳定器功能的"双重约束"。具体而言,本文通过构建符合中国城乡二元经济结构特征的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了二元经济结构特征、税收结构和产出波动之间的关联。结果发现:随着城乡生产率差距、对农民工的就业歧视以及农村居民在总人口中比重的变小,也即随着二元经济结构特征的弱化,中国税收的自动稳定器功能也在增强;随着间接税在总税收中比重的提升,税收自动稳定器功能减弱;随着个人所得税累进性的增加,税收的自动稳定器功能增强,但由于个税在总税收中比重较低其增强幅度有限。据此,为保障税收能够更好地发挥自动稳定器功能,应努力弱化城乡二元经济结构特征、降低间接税在总税收中的比重并提升所得税的累进程度。
Since its opening-up,China has chosen a discretionary fiscal policy whenever there have been economic tremors. This policy has alleviated economic fluctuations. However,it has also had negative impacts on the macro economy. This paper contends that,when confronted with a huge-scale economy with a complex structure such as China's,it is very difficult for decision makers to enforce a precise and effective discretionary fiscal policy with few side effects in the pursuit of economic stability. Therefore, automatic fiscal stabilizers are particularly important. However, Chinese researchers have not paid enough attention to the study of automatic fiscal stabilizers.China's existing social security system and transfer payment system are not strong enough to be the most important automatic fiscal stabilizers because the scale of the economic resources involved is relatively small. Therefore,the most important automatic stabilizer is the tax system. However,differing from developed countries,China's tax system still has the obvious characteristics of its dual economic structure and the tax structure is heavily weighted towards indirect taxes.This paper is particularly concerned with whether the dual economic structure and the high proportion of indirect taxes have hindered China's tax system from playing its role as an automatic stabilizer fully.By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium( DSGE) model that captures the characteristics of China's dual economic structure,this paper sheds light on the relationship between the characteristics of the dual economic structure,the proportion of indirect taxes,and output volatility. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows.First,following the weakening of dual economic structure resulting from the decrease in the gap between urban and rural productivity,employment discrimination against rural migrant workers,and changes in the proportion of rural residents,the effectiveness of the tax system as an automatic stabilizer is enhanced. Second,with the growth of the proportion of indirect taxes of total revenue,the ability of the tax system to function as an automatic stabilizer is weakening. Third,the growth of income tax progressivity has a positive impact on the effectiveness of the tax system as an automatic stabilizer,but the impact is weak because of the low proportion of income tax in total tax revenue. Lastly,whether the heterogeneity of residents is considered or not,the dual economic structure and the high proportion of indirect taxes have always hindered taxation from fully functioning as an automatic stabilizer. Based on these conclusions,we confirm that the high proportion of indirect taxes and the dual economic structure have placed "dual constraints"on the effectiveness of China's tax system as an automatic stabilizer.To allow taxation to play the role of automatic stabilizer better,efforts should be made in the following ways. At the national level,the progressivity and the proportion of income taxation should be increased. Less developed western provinces should take a"two-pronged"strategy to weaken the dual economic structure and reduce the proportion of indirect taxes.Provinces in the central district should focus on the weakening of the dual economic structure. Eastern developed provinces should consider accelerating the reform of real estate taxes to improve the proportion of direct taxes of total tax revenue.The study makes the following contributions. First,this paper theoretically analyzes the effects of a dual economic structure and a high proportion of indirect taxes on the effectiveness of taxation as an automatic stabilizer. It proves that these constitute "dual constraints"by conducting numerical simulations and econometric analyses. Second,this paper constructs a DSGE model that embodies the characteristics of the dual economic structure and covers the main types of taxes,and then extends the model to analyze the impacts of residents' heterogeneity and income tax progressivity. Third,the conclusions of this paper provide an important theoretical basis for the goals of China's new-type urbanization and the orientation of the tax system reform.
Since its opening-up,China has chosen a discretionary fiscal policy whenever there have been economic tremors. This policy has alleviated economic fluctuations. However,it has also had negative impacts on the macro economy. This paper contends that,when confronted with a huge-scale economy with a complex structure such as China's,it is very difficult for decision makers to enforce a precise and effective discretionary fiscal policy with few side effects in the pursuit of economic stability. Therefore, automatic fiscal stabilizers are particularly important. However, Chinese researchers have not paid enough attention to the study of automatic fiscal stabilizers.China's existing social security system and transfer payment system are not strong enough to be the most important automatic fiscal stabilizers because the scale of the economic resources involved is relatively small. Therefore,the most important automatic stabilizer is the tax system. However,differing from developed countries,China's tax system still has the obvious characteristics of its dual economic structure and the tax structure is heavily weighted towards indirect taxes.This paper is particularly concerned with whether the dual economic structure and the high proportion of indirect taxes have hindered China's tax system from playing its role as an automatic stabilizer fully.By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium( DSGE) model that captures the characteristics of China's dual economic structure,this paper sheds light on the relationship between the characteristics of the dual economic structure,the proportion of indirect taxes,and output volatility. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows.First,following the weakening of dual economic structure resulting from the decrease in the gap between urban and rural productivity,employment discrimination against rural migrant workers,and changes in the proportion of rural residents,the effectiveness of the tax system as an automatic stabilizer is enhanced. Second,with the growth of the proportion of indirect taxes of total revenue,the ability of the tax system to function as an automatic stabilizer is weakening. Third,the growth of income tax progressivity has a positive impact on the effectiveness of the tax system as an automatic stabilizer,but the impact is weak because of the low proportion of income tax in total tax revenue. Lastly,whether the heterogeneity of residents is considered or not,the dual economic structure and the high proportion of indirect taxes have always hindered taxation from fully functioning as an automatic stabilizer. Based on these conclusions,we confirm that the high proportion of indirect taxes and the dual economic structure have placed "dual constraints"on the effectiveness of China's tax system as an automatic stabilizer.To allow taxation to play the role of automatic stabilizer better,efforts should be made in the following ways. At the national level,the progressivity and the proportion of income taxation should be increased. Less developed western provinces should take a"two-pronged"strategy to weaken the dual economic structure and reduce the proportion of indirect taxes.Provinces in the central district should focus on the weakening of the dual economic structure. Eastern developed provinces should consider accelerating the reform of real estate taxes to improve the proportion of direct taxes of total tax revenue.The study makes the following contributions. First,this paper theoretically analyzes the effects of a dual economic structure and a high proportion of indirect taxes on the effectiveness of taxation as an automatic stabilizer. It proves that these constitute "dual constraints"by conducting numerical simulations and econometric analyses. Second,this paper constructs a DSGE model that embodies the characteristics of the dual economic structure and covers the main types of taxes,and then extends the model to analyze the impacts of residents' heterogeneity and income tax progressivity. Third,the conclusions of this paper provide an important theoretical basis for the goals of China's new-type urbanization and the orientation of the tax system reform.
引文
卞志村、杨源源,2016:《结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择》,《经济研究》第3期。
陈昌兵,2014:《可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算》,《经济研究》第12期。
陈彦斌、陈伟泽、陈军、邱哲圣,2013:《中国通货膨胀对财产不平等的影响》,《经济研究》第8期。
盖庆恩、朱喜、史清华,2013:《劳动力市场扭曲、结构转变和中国劳动生产率》,《经济研究》第5期。
贾俊雪,2012:《中国税收收入规模变化的规则性、政策态势及其稳定效应》,《经济研究》第11期。
金戈,2016:《中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算》,《经济研究》第5期。
李永友、周达军,2007:《自动稳定器与相机抉择:财政政策宏观调控机制的权衡与完善》,《财贸经济》第2期。
王国静、田国强,2014:《政府支出乘数》,《经济研究》第9期。
王欧、唐轲、郑华懋,2016:《农业机械对劳动力替代强度和粮食产出的影响》,《中国农村经济》第12期。
吴晓刚、张卓妮,2014:《户口、职业隔离与中国城镇的收入不平等》,《中国社会科学》第6期。
许志伟、吴化斌、周晶,2013:《个人所得税改革的宏观福利分析》,《管理世界》第12期。
姚先国、赖普清,2004:《中国劳资关系的城乡户籍差异》,《经济研究》第7期。
章上峰、许冰,2009:《时变弹性生产函数与全要素生产率》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
周波,2014:《基于我国省域面板的财政政策产出稳定效应研究》,《管理世界》第7期。
周月书、王悦雯,2015:《二元经济结构转换与城乡资本配置效率关系实证分析》,《中国农村经济》第3期。
朱喜、史清华、盖庆恩,2011:《要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率》,《经济研究》第5期。
Auerbach,A.,and D.Feenberg,2000,“The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers”,Journal of Economic Perspectives,14(3),37-56.
Blanchard,O.,2006,“Comments on‘The Case Against the Case Against Discretionary Policy’”,in:Kopcke,R.,Tootell,G.,and Triest,R.,(eds.),The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy,MIT Press,Boston.
Blanchard,O.,G.Dell'Ariccia,and P.Mauro,2010,“Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy”,Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,42(6),199-215.
Blinder,A.S.,1975,“Distribution Effects and the Aggregate Consumption Function”,Journal of Political Economy,83(3),447-475.
Christiano,L.J.,1984,“A Reexamination of the Theory of Automatic Stabilizers”,Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,20(1),147-206.
Colciago,A.,T.Ropele,V.A.Muscatelli,and P.Tirelli,2008,“The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union:are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?”,Review of International Economics,16(3),591-610.
Cottarelli,C.,and A.Fedelino,2010,“Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government:Correcting a Common Misunderstanding”,IMF Working Paper,No.10/155.
Dolls,M.,C.Fuest,and A.Peichl,2012,“Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis:US vs.Europe”,Journal of Public Economics,96(3-4),279-294.
Fatás,A.,and I.Mihov,2001,“Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers:International and Intranational Evidence”,Journal of International Economics,55(1),3-28.
Funashima,Y.,2015,“Automatic Stabilizers in the Japanese Tax System”,Journal of Asian Economics,39(4),86-93.
Haan,W.J.D.,2009,“Solving Dynamic Models with Heterogeneous Agents and Aggregate Uncertainty with Dynare or Dynare++”,Meeting Paper from Society for Economic Dynamics,No.776.
Kniesner,T.,and J.Ziliak,2002,“Tax Reform and Automatic Stabilization”,American Economic Review,92(3),590-612.
Kumhof,M.,and D.Laxton,2013,“Simple Fiscal Policy Rules for Small Open Economies”,Journal of International Economics,91(1),113-127.
Maravalle,A.,and P.Claeys,2012,“Boom-bust Cycles and Procyclical Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy”,Journal of Policy Modeling,34(5),735-754.
Mcdonald,J.B.,1984,“Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income”,Econometrica,52(3),647-663.
Mc Kay,A.,and R.Reis,2016,“The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the US Business Cycle”,Econometrica,84(1),141-194.
Preston,B.,and M.Roca,2007,“Incomplete Markets,Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Dynamics”,NBER Working Paper,No.13260.
Sen,H.,and A.Kaya,2013,“The Role of Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer:Evidence from Turkey”,Economic Analysis and Policy,43(3),303-313.
(1)本文所指的弱化二元经济结构中的三个方面(提高城市化水平、农民工就业公平度、农村生产率水平)和党的十八大报告提出的“新型城镇化”建设目标(其目标是不仅要实现农村人口向城镇的转移,更要努力提升农民工待遇以让其真正融入城镇、努力发展农村现代化和新农村建设等等)是完全一致的,而提升直接税比重也和中国未来的税制结构改革方向一致。
(1)由于本文同时考虑到了工农业产品的生产和消费,而两类商品的定价方式并不一致,且很难设定工农业品的相对价格,所以并未考察价格粘性、通货膨胀等问题,而是在传统RBC模型的基础上进行设计。
(1)该参数重点起到一个调节器的作用,用于调节由于单位等原因(比如土地可以用亩、公顷等多种单位)导致的模型中工农业产出比与现实经济的差距。
(1)根据王欧等(2016),全国农作物耕种收综合机械化水平从2003年的33%提高到2014年的61%。
(1)具体的计算过程十分繁琐,为节约篇幅列述于工作论文中,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(2)本文重点采用Haan(2009)提供的“精确汇总算法”(explicit aggregation algorithm)对modelⅡ进行数值分析,其具体内容较为复杂,为节约篇幅不再列入,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(1)在考虑累进性的modelⅡ中,参数较大幅度变动时会导致平均收入等变量发生巨大变化,需要重新估算cx、a、b。
(2)为节约篇幅,这一部分研究的详情列于工作论文中,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(1)为节约篇幅,不再汇报实证结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
陈昌兵,2014:《可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算》,《经济研究》第12期。
陈彦斌、陈伟泽、陈军、邱哲圣,2013:《中国通货膨胀对财产不平等的影响》,《经济研究》第8期。
盖庆恩、朱喜、史清华,2013:《劳动力市场扭曲、结构转变和中国劳动生产率》,《经济研究》第5期。
贾俊雪,2012:《中国税收收入规模变化的规则性、政策态势及其稳定效应》,《经济研究》第11期。
金戈,2016:《中国基础设施与非基础设施资本存量及其产出弹性估算》,《经济研究》第5期。
李永友、周达军,2007:《自动稳定器与相机抉择:财政政策宏观调控机制的权衡与完善》,《财贸经济》第2期。
王国静、田国强,2014:《政府支出乘数》,《经济研究》第9期。
王欧、唐轲、郑华懋,2016:《农业机械对劳动力替代强度和粮食产出的影响》,《中国农村经济》第12期。
吴晓刚、张卓妮,2014:《户口、职业隔离与中国城镇的收入不平等》,《中国社会科学》第6期。
许志伟、吴化斌、周晶,2013:《个人所得税改革的宏观福利分析》,《管理世界》第12期。
姚先国、赖普清,2004:《中国劳资关系的城乡户籍差异》,《经济研究》第7期。
章上峰、许冰,2009:《时变弹性生产函数与全要素生产率》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
周波,2014:《基于我国省域面板的财政政策产出稳定效应研究》,《管理世界》第7期。
周月书、王悦雯,2015:《二元经济结构转换与城乡资本配置效率关系实证分析》,《中国农村经济》第3期。
朱喜、史清华、盖庆恩,2011:《要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率》,《经济研究》第5期。
Auerbach,A.,and D.Feenberg,2000,“The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers”,Journal of Economic Perspectives,14(3),37-56.
Blanchard,O.,2006,“Comments on‘The Case Against the Case Against Discretionary Policy’”,in:Kopcke,R.,Tootell,G.,and Triest,R.,(eds.),The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy,MIT Press,Boston.
Blanchard,O.,G.Dell'Ariccia,and P.Mauro,2010,“Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy”,Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,42(6),199-215.
Blinder,A.S.,1975,“Distribution Effects and the Aggregate Consumption Function”,Journal of Political Economy,83(3),447-475.
Christiano,L.J.,1984,“A Reexamination of the Theory of Automatic Stabilizers”,Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,20(1),147-206.
Colciago,A.,T.Ropele,V.A.Muscatelli,and P.Tirelli,2008,“The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union:are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?”,Review of International Economics,16(3),591-610.
Cottarelli,C.,and A.Fedelino,2010,“Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government:Correcting a Common Misunderstanding”,IMF Working Paper,No.10/155.
Dolls,M.,C.Fuest,and A.Peichl,2012,“Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis:US vs.Europe”,Journal of Public Economics,96(3-4),279-294.
Fatás,A.,and I.Mihov,2001,“Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers:International and Intranational Evidence”,Journal of International Economics,55(1),3-28.
Funashima,Y.,2015,“Automatic Stabilizers in the Japanese Tax System”,Journal of Asian Economics,39(4),86-93.
Haan,W.J.D.,2009,“Solving Dynamic Models with Heterogeneous Agents and Aggregate Uncertainty with Dynare or Dynare++”,Meeting Paper from Society for Economic Dynamics,No.776.
Kniesner,T.,and J.Ziliak,2002,“Tax Reform and Automatic Stabilization”,American Economic Review,92(3),590-612.
Kumhof,M.,and D.Laxton,2013,“Simple Fiscal Policy Rules for Small Open Economies”,Journal of International Economics,91(1),113-127.
Maravalle,A.,and P.Claeys,2012,“Boom-bust Cycles and Procyclical Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy”,Journal of Policy Modeling,34(5),735-754.
Mcdonald,J.B.,1984,“Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income”,Econometrica,52(3),647-663.
Mc Kay,A.,and R.Reis,2016,“The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the US Business Cycle”,Econometrica,84(1),141-194.
Preston,B.,and M.Roca,2007,“Incomplete Markets,Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Dynamics”,NBER Working Paper,No.13260.
Sen,H.,and A.Kaya,2013,“The Role of Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer:Evidence from Turkey”,Economic Analysis and Policy,43(3),303-313.
(1)本文所指的弱化二元经济结构中的三个方面(提高城市化水平、农民工就业公平度、农村生产率水平)和党的十八大报告提出的“新型城镇化”建设目标(其目标是不仅要实现农村人口向城镇的转移,更要努力提升农民工待遇以让其真正融入城镇、努力发展农村现代化和新农村建设等等)是完全一致的,而提升直接税比重也和中国未来的税制结构改革方向一致。
(1)由于本文同时考虑到了工农业产品的生产和消费,而两类商品的定价方式并不一致,且很难设定工农业品的相对价格,所以并未考察价格粘性、通货膨胀等问题,而是在传统RBC模型的基础上进行设计。
(1)该参数重点起到一个调节器的作用,用于调节由于单位等原因(比如土地可以用亩、公顷等多种单位)导致的模型中工农业产出比与现实经济的差距。
(1)根据王欧等(2016),全国农作物耕种收综合机械化水平从2003年的33%提高到2014年的61%。
(1)具体的计算过程十分繁琐,为节约篇幅列述于工作论文中,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(2)本文重点采用Haan(2009)提供的“精确汇总算法”(explicit aggregation algorithm)对modelⅡ进行数值分析,其具体内容较为复杂,为节约篇幅不再列入,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(1)在考虑累进性的modelⅡ中,参数较大幅度变动时会导致平均收入等变量发生巨大变化,需要重新估算cx、a、b。
(2)为节约篇幅,这一部分研究的详情列于工作论文中,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取内容详尽的工作论文。
(1)为节约篇幅,不再汇报实证结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。