地震短期综合预测的一种思路
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摘要
本文介绍了一种地震短期综合预测思路,即以虚报率较低的短期异常作为"引信",在出现1个或数个"引信"异常后,再依据其它异常综合判定发震地点和震级,其优点是据此做出的综合预测意见的成功率较高。本文以2012年江苏高邮-宝应4.9级地震和2016年江苏射阳4.4级地震的震前实时跟踪过程为例,详细介绍了该思路的应用,该综合预测思路对指导今后震情跟踪工作有实际意义。
This paper introduces a comprehensive approach to short-term earthquake prediction.The basic idea is to use short-term anomalies with low false alarm rate as "fuze". After one or more "fuze"anomalies occur,the location and magnitude of the earthquake are comprehensively determined according to other anomalies. The advantage of this method is the high success rate of the comprehensive forecast. In this paper,taking the real-time pre-earthquake tracking process of the Gaoyou-Baoying,Jiangsu earthquake with MS4.9 in 2012 and the Sheyang,Jiangsu earthquake with M_S4.4 in 2016 as an example,the application of this idea is introduced in detail in this paper.This method is of practical significance for tracking short-term earthquake conditions in the future.
This paper introduces a comprehensive approach to short-term earthquake prediction.The basic idea is to use short-term anomalies with low false alarm rate as "fuze". After one or more "fuze"anomalies occur,the location and magnitude of the earthquake are comprehensively determined according to other anomalies. The advantage of this method is the high success rate of the comprehensive forecast. In this paper,taking the real-time pre-earthquake tracking process of the Gaoyou-Baoying,Jiangsu earthquake with MS4.9 in 2012 and the Sheyang,Jiangsu earthquake with M_S4.4 in 2016 as an example,the application of this idea is introduced in detail in this paper.This method is of practical significance for tracking short-term earthquake conditions in the future.
引文
陈立德,1993,地震综合预报的权重集成法,地震研究,16(3),267-271.
陈章立、李志雄,2008,对地震预报的科学思考(二)——前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点,地震,28(2),1-16.
韩渭宾、廖志和、王维恩,1997,川滇分带地震学短期综合预报方法的研究,见:国家地震局预测预防司,地震短临预报的理论与方法——“八五”攻关三级课题论文集,72-80,北京:地震出版社.
蒋延林、袁桂平、李鸿宇等,2016,高邮与应4.9级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征初步分析,中国地震,32(1),143-150.
李平、朱元清、肖兰喜等,2000,华北地区强震前兆空间动态场中短期综合预报研究,地震,20(2),37-47.
缪阿丽、冯志生、沈红会等,2014,苏22井水温映震效能及典型地震前兆特征分析,地震地磁观测与研究,35(3-4),140-145.
王维、叶碧文、沈红会等,2016,高邮-宝应M4.9地震前周围水位的群体特征,震灾防御技术,11(4),791-799.
徐桂明、郑江蓉、杨从杰等,2010,江苏05井、06井水温的中短期地震异常典型特征研究,地震研究,33(4),274-280.
陈章立、李志雄,2008,对地震预报的科学思考(二)——前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点,地震,28(2),1-16.
韩渭宾、廖志和、王维恩,1997,川滇分带地震学短期综合预报方法的研究,见:国家地震局预测预防司,地震短临预报的理论与方法——“八五”攻关三级课题论文集,72-80,北京:地震出版社.
蒋延林、袁桂平、李鸿宇等,2016,高邮与应4.9级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征初步分析,中国地震,32(1),143-150.
李平、朱元清、肖兰喜等,2000,华北地区强震前兆空间动态场中短期综合预报研究,地震,20(2),37-47.
缪阿丽、冯志生、沈红会等,2014,苏22井水温映震效能及典型地震前兆特征分析,地震地磁观测与研究,35(3-4),140-145.
王维、叶碧文、沈红会等,2016,高邮-宝应M4.9地震前周围水位的群体特征,震灾防御技术,11(4),791-799.
徐桂明、郑江蓉、杨从杰等,2010,江苏05井、06井水温的中短期地震异常典型特征研究,地震研究,33(4),274-280.