经济下行压力下我国上市公司财务风险成因的实证研究
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摘要
为了研究经济下行压力加大情况下上市公司财务风险的成因,本文选取我国A股股票市场中2017年度首次实施特别处理的20家上市公司(ST公司)和20家与之配对的上市公司为研究对象,首先运用显著性检验分析方法和主成份分析方法,提取财务风险成因的变量;在此基础上运用Probit回归模型对2015——2017年财务数据进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:与正常经济情况相比,在经济下行情况下,上市公司财务风险成因有较为显著的不同。经济下行压力加大情况下,反映公司股权结构和管理层持股与否等表外信息指标对上市公司财务风险的影响显著增加。
In order to study the causes of financial risk of listed companies under increasing downward pressure,this paper selects some samples as the object of study in China's A share stock market in 2017,namely,20 listed companies( ST companies) with special treatment for the first time and their matching listed companies. First,the causes of the financial risk variables are extracted by using analytical methods and principal component analysis,and the author conducts an empirical analysis of financial data during 2015-2017 by Profit Regression Model. The findings show that the causes of the financial risk of listed companies under the economic downturn are strikingly different from ones in normal economic conditions,the company's ownership structure and management information increasingly significant to the financial risk of listed companies.
In order to study the causes of financial risk of listed companies under increasing downward pressure,this paper selects some samples as the object of study in China's A share stock market in 2017,namely,20 listed companies( ST companies) with special treatment for the first time and their matching listed companies. First,the causes of the financial risk variables are extracted by using analytical methods and principal component analysis,and the author conducts an empirical analysis of financial data during 2015-2017 by Profit Regression Model. The findings show that the causes of the financial risk of listed companies under the economic downturn are strikingly different from ones in normal economic conditions,the company's ownership structure and management information increasingly significant to the financial risk of listed companies.
引文
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[2]于福生等.企业治理影响公司财务风险吗[J].会计研究,2009,(10):52-60.
[3]刘银国,吴夏琴,董事会特征和公司财务风险相关性研究[J].会计之友,2009,(11):9-14.
[4]吴国鼎,张会丽.多元化经营是否降低了企业的财务风险?---来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].中央财经大学学报,2015,(08):94-101.
[5]岳晓利.我国上市公司频繁并购的风险探析---以蓝色光标为例[J].财会月刊,2017,(16):96-101.
[6]陈有志,丁黎青,徐世腾.上市公司跨国并购财务风险及影响因素研究[J].管理现代化,2016,(06):105-107.
[7]李伟.上市公司财务风险和宏观经济相关性分析[J].轻工科技,2017,(03):132-133.
[8]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(03):49-51.
[9]张鸣,程涛.上市公司财务预警实证研究的动态视角[J].财经研究,2005,(01):23-27.
[10]林娟,杨美萍.中小企业财务预警创新指标体系实证研究[J].会计之友,2010,(02):50-52.
[11]陈毅浩.我国房地产上市公司治理结构与财务风险关系的实证研究[D].上海:上海社会科学院,2017.