研发项目柔性外包管理框架构建及关键技术分析
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摘要
研发项目外包过程存在多源不确定因素,给外包运营管理带来巨大挑战。为应对不确定因素影响,将柔性思想运用到研发项目外包管理中,使决策者在外包管理行动上具有灵活性。首先,介绍柔性管理以及研发项目柔性外包的概念;其次,对研发项目柔性外包过程进行任务分解,以任务间逻辑关系为依据构建管理框架;最后,归纳柔性外包管理关键技术。旨在为决策者提供系统的分析工具,为中小型研发企业应用柔性外包策略提供技术支持。
There are multiple sources of uncertainty in the R&D outsourcing process which bring great challenges to the operation and management of R&D outsourcing. In this paper, flexibility is applied in the R&D outsourcing process to give decision-makers the flexibility in outsourcing management actions. First, the concept of flexibility and the flexible outsourcing process of R&D projects are introduced; then, the flexible outsourcing process is decomposed into three tasks, the flexible management framework is constructed based on the logical relationship of these three tasks;finally, the key technologies for the flexible outsourcing process are summarized. This research will provide a systematic way to support flexible outsourcing of R&D projects and offer fundamental principles to help decision makers reduce the effects of uncertainty in R&D project management.
There are multiple sources of uncertainty in the R&D outsourcing process which bring great challenges to the operation and management of R&D outsourcing. In this paper, flexibility is applied in the R&D outsourcing process to give decision-makers the flexibility in outsourcing management actions. First, the concept of flexibility and the flexible outsourcing process of R&D projects are introduced; then, the flexible outsourcing process is decomposed into three tasks, the flexible management framework is constructed based on the logical relationship of these three tasks;finally, the key technologies for the flexible outsourcing process are summarized. This research will provide a systematic way to support flexible outsourcing of R&D projects and offer fundamental principles to help decision makers reduce the effects of uncertainty in R&D project management.
引文
[1]鲁菁.中国医药研发外包服务产业发展研究[D].长沙:中南大学公共卫生学院, 2012.
[2]许宪春.取得巨大新成就的收官之年:《2015年统计公报》评续[EB/OL].(2016-12-19)[2018-07-01]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/201602/t20160229_1323939.html.
[3]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中华人民共和国2005年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2005-02-28)[2018-07-01]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/200602/t20060227_30019.html.
[4]江小国,吴凤平.企业业务外包风险分析与量化评估[J].统计与决策, 2009(10):179-180.
[5] DE NEUFVILLE R, SCHOLTES S. Flexibility in engineering design[M]. Cambridge:MIT Press, 2011.
[6]VAN HAVERBEKE W, DE VRANDE V V.Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options[C]. Singapore:IEEE, 2008:954-958.
[7]TRIGEORGIS L.Real options:managerial flexibility and strategy in resource allocation[M].Cambridge:MIT Press, 1996.
[8]ZHANG M M, ZHOU P, ZHOU D Q. A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China[J].Energy Economics,2016, 59:213-226.
[9]KRISHNAN V, BHATTACHARYA B.Technology selection and commitment in new product development:the role of uncertainty and design flexibility[J].Management Science,2002,48(3):313-327.
[10]吴建祖,宣慧玉.可暂停研发项目投资决策的实物期权方法[J].科技进步与对策, 2007, 24(2):161-163.
[11]牛静,扈文秀,穆庆榜,等.基于实物期权的基础设施投资担保负担测度及其风险管理研究[J].管理评论,2012, 24(8):11-20.
[12]鲁皓,张宗益.基于实物期权方法的新兴技术项目投资时机和投资规模选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):1068-1074.
[13]TAN C, SIA S K.Managing flexibility in outsourcing[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 2006, 7(4):179-205.
[14]许毅刚,邓光军,曾勇,等.不确定需求下的多产品柔性制造和外包[J].系统工程, 2012(10):69-77.
[15] WANG J, YANG C Y. Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2012, 135(2):823-831.
[16]周凯,杨梅英.基于人工神经网络的高新技术企业合作研发项目风险评价研究[J].科技管理研究, 2010(20):39-42.
[17]欧阳轶翔,雷井生.基于因子分析的企业研发项目风险评估模型及实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2010(1):133-136.
[18]CARDIN M-A. Enabling flexibility in engineering systems:a taxonomy of procedures and a design framework[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2014,136(1):1-14.
[19]CASSIMON D, DE BACKER M, ENGELEN P J. Incorporating technicalriskincompoundrealoptionmodelstovaluea pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity[J].Research Policy,2011,40(9):1200-1216.
[20]SANTIAGO L P, VAKILI P.On the value of flexibility in R&D projects[J].Management Science,2005,51(8):1206-1218.
[21]KIND A. Pricing American-style options by simulation[J].Financial Market Reasearch,2005,18(1):109-116.
[22]BLACK F,SCHOLES M.The pricing of options and corporate liabilities[J].The Journal of Political Economy, 1973, 81(3):637-654.
[23]曹鸿章.基于实物期权的新能源汽车研发项目价值评估方法研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2014.
[24]曹博洋,姜明辉.多种风险下研发项目投资决策博弈分析[J].运筹与管理,2015,24(5):66-74.
[25]YAO T, JIANG B, LIU H. Impact of economic and technical uncertainties on dynamic new product development[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2013,60(1):175-168.
[26]PENNINGS E, LINT O. The option value of advanced R&D[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1997, 103(1):83-94.
[27]COX J C, ROSS S A, RUBINSTEIN M. Option pricing:a simplified approach[J].Journal of financial Economics, 1979,7(3):229-263.
[28]HUCHZERMEIER A, LOCH C H. Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D[J].Management Science,2001,47(1):85-101.
[29]BENAROCH M, WEBSTER S, KAZAZ B. Impact of sourcing flexibility on the outsourcing of services under demand uncertainty[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,219(2):272-283.
[30]ARIAS-ARANDA D, BUSTINZA O F, BARRALES-MOLINA V.Operations flexibility and outsourcing benefits:an empirical study in service firms[J].Service Industries Journal,2011,31(11):1849-1970.
[31]张宗明,刘树林,解慧慧,等.不确定条件下的IT外包时机选择问题研究[J].管理科学, 2012, 25(2):87-97.
[32]谷晓燕.基于实物期权的研发项目动态投资决策模型[J].中国管理科学, 2015, 23(7):94-102.
[33]TSUI M. Valuing innovative technology R&D as a real option:application to fuel cell vehicles[D]. Cambridge:Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005.
[34]VAN ZEE R D, SPINLER S.Real option valuation of public sector R&D investments with a down-and-out barrier option[J].Technovation,2014,34(8):477-484.
[35]HU J,CARDIN M A.The value of flexible capacity expansion strategies in design of complex decentralized engineering systems[C]. Boston:ASME, 2015.
[36]DE NEUFVILLE R,SCHOLTES S,WANG T.Real options by spreadsheet:parking garage case example[J]. Journal of Infrastructure System,2006,12(2):107-111.
[37]HU J F, GUO P, POH K L. Flexible capacity planning for engineering systems based on decision rules and differential evolution[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2018,123:254-262.
[38]KUHN D, PARPAS P, RUSTEM B. Bound-based decision rules in multistage stochastic programming[J]. Kybernetika, 2008, 44(2):134-150.
[39] ZHANG S X, BABOVIC V. An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions[J].Decision Support Systems,2011,51(1):119-129.
[40]ZHAO S, HASKELL W B, CARDIN M A. Decision rule-based method for flexible multifacility capacity expansion problem[J].IISE Transactions,2018,50(7):553-569.
[2]许宪春.取得巨大新成就的收官之年:《2015年统计公报》评续[EB/OL].(2016-12-19)[2018-07-01]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/201602/t20160229_1323939.html.
[3]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中华人民共和国2005年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2005-02-28)[2018-07-01]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/200602/t20060227_30019.html.
[4]江小国,吴凤平.企业业务外包风险分析与量化评估[J].统计与决策, 2009(10):179-180.
[5] DE NEUFVILLE R, SCHOLTES S. Flexibility in engineering design[M]. Cambridge:MIT Press, 2011.
[6]VAN HAVERBEKE W, DE VRANDE V V.Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options[C]. Singapore:IEEE, 2008:954-958.
[7]TRIGEORGIS L.Real options:managerial flexibility and strategy in resource allocation[M].Cambridge:MIT Press, 1996.
[8]ZHANG M M, ZHOU P, ZHOU D Q. A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China[J].Energy Economics,2016, 59:213-226.
[9]KRISHNAN V, BHATTACHARYA B.Technology selection and commitment in new product development:the role of uncertainty and design flexibility[J].Management Science,2002,48(3):313-327.
[10]吴建祖,宣慧玉.可暂停研发项目投资决策的实物期权方法[J].科技进步与对策, 2007, 24(2):161-163.
[11]牛静,扈文秀,穆庆榜,等.基于实物期权的基础设施投资担保负担测度及其风险管理研究[J].管理评论,2012, 24(8):11-20.
[12]鲁皓,张宗益.基于实物期权方法的新兴技术项目投资时机和投资规模选择[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):1068-1074.
[13]TAN C, SIA S K.Managing flexibility in outsourcing[J]. Journal of the Association for Information Systems, 2006, 7(4):179-205.
[14]许毅刚,邓光军,曾勇,等.不确定需求下的多产品柔性制造和外包[J].系统工程, 2012(10):69-77.
[15] WANG J, YANG C Y. Flexibility planning for managing R&D projects under risk[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2012, 135(2):823-831.
[16]周凯,杨梅英.基于人工神经网络的高新技术企业合作研发项目风险评价研究[J].科技管理研究, 2010(20):39-42.
[17]欧阳轶翔,雷井生.基于因子分析的企业研发项目风险评估模型及实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2010(1):133-136.
[18]CARDIN M-A. Enabling flexibility in engineering systems:a taxonomy of procedures and a design framework[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2014,136(1):1-14.
[19]CASSIMON D, DE BACKER M, ENGELEN P J. Incorporating technicalriskincompoundrealoptionmodelstovaluea pharmaceutical R&D licensing opportunity[J].Research Policy,2011,40(9):1200-1216.
[20]SANTIAGO L P, VAKILI P.On the value of flexibility in R&D projects[J].Management Science,2005,51(8):1206-1218.
[21]KIND A. Pricing American-style options by simulation[J].Financial Market Reasearch,2005,18(1):109-116.
[22]BLACK F,SCHOLES M.The pricing of options and corporate liabilities[J].The Journal of Political Economy, 1973, 81(3):637-654.
[23]曹鸿章.基于实物期权的新能源汽车研发项目价值评估方法研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,2014.
[24]曹博洋,姜明辉.多种风险下研发项目投资决策博弈分析[J].运筹与管理,2015,24(5):66-74.
[25]YAO T, JIANG B, LIU H. Impact of economic and technical uncertainties on dynamic new product development[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2013,60(1):175-168.
[26]PENNINGS E, LINT O. The option value of advanced R&D[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1997, 103(1):83-94.
[27]COX J C, ROSS S A, RUBINSTEIN M. Option pricing:a simplified approach[J].Journal of financial Economics, 1979,7(3):229-263.
[28]HUCHZERMEIER A, LOCH C H. Project management under risk:using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D[J].Management Science,2001,47(1):85-101.
[29]BENAROCH M, WEBSTER S, KAZAZ B. Impact of sourcing flexibility on the outsourcing of services under demand uncertainty[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,219(2):272-283.
[30]ARIAS-ARANDA D, BUSTINZA O F, BARRALES-MOLINA V.Operations flexibility and outsourcing benefits:an empirical study in service firms[J].Service Industries Journal,2011,31(11):1849-1970.
[31]张宗明,刘树林,解慧慧,等.不确定条件下的IT外包时机选择问题研究[J].管理科学, 2012, 25(2):87-97.
[32]谷晓燕.基于实物期权的研发项目动态投资决策模型[J].中国管理科学, 2015, 23(7):94-102.
[33]TSUI M. Valuing innovative technology R&D as a real option:application to fuel cell vehicles[D]. Cambridge:Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005.
[34]VAN ZEE R D, SPINLER S.Real option valuation of public sector R&D investments with a down-and-out barrier option[J].Technovation,2014,34(8):477-484.
[35]HU J,CARDIN M A.The value of flexible capacity expansion strategies in design of complex decentralized engineering systems[C]. Boston:ASME, 2015.
[36]DE NEUFVILLE R,SCHOLTES S,WANG T.Real options by spreadsheet:parking garage case example[J]. Journal of Infrastructure System,2006,12(2):107-111.
[37]HU J F, GUO P, POH K L. Flexible capacity planning for engineering systems based on decision rules and differential evolution[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2018,123:254-262.
[38]KUHN D, PARPAS P, RUSTEM B. Bound-based decision rules in multistage stochastic programming[J]. Kybernetika, 2008, 44(2):134-150.
[39] ZHANG S X, BABOVIC V. An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions[J].Decision Support Systems,2011,51(1):119-129.
[40]ZHAO S, HASKELL W B, CARDIN M A. Decision rule-based method for flexible multifacility capacity expansion problem[J].IISE Transactions,2018,50(7):553-569.