和平之困:南苏丹分离公投及其反思
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摘要
南苏丹公投是近年较为少见的成功分离案例,它是苏丹内战和平谈判的结果,属于协议式的民主分离公投。苏丹内战本来并不必然导致分裂,但苏丹南北的殖民历史等特性,使得和平解决苏丹内战的道路极为有限。由于苏丹地理位置特殊,境内资源分布不均、南北文化差异过大等内部原因,加上国际社会从中斡旋,公投解决南北争端成了一种可被尝试的且能够被各方接受的选择。然而,与外界的期待不同,南苏丹公投既有积极影响,也有严重的消极作用。南苏丹目前深陷内外交困的局面,究其根源,这与全面和平协议本身的缺陷、过于相信分离与和平的因果关系、外部大国追求自身利益等因素均有一定的关系。通过反思南苏丹公投,本文认为公投与分离都不是解决一个国家内部冲突的良方,而问题的本质在于如何处理权力与资源的分配问题。
The South Sudan referendum is a rare case of successful separation in recent years. This referendum is the result of peaceful negotiations on the Sudan's civil war,and is a protocol referendum of democratic separation. In fact,the Sudan's civil war did not necessarily lead to secession. However,the colonial history and diversity of the North and South Sudan made it extremely difficult for a peaceful resolution. Due to the special geographic location of Sudan,its uneven distribution of resources,apparent cultural differences between the North and the South,as well as the mediation of the international community,using referendum to solve disputes has become a possible option that can be accepted by all parties. The referendum has both positive and negative influences,and probably does not develop as the outside had expected. While North-South relations were unpredictable,the South faces fierce and cruel internal waves. The roots of internal and diplomatic difficulties in South Sudan might lie in the flaws in the comprehensive peace agreement,the farfetched link separation with peace,and the pursuit of self-interest by major stakeholders. This paper argues that neither referendum nor secession are good ways to resolve a country's internal conflicts. Actually,the essential problem is to find an effective and lasting-peace strategy.
The South Sudan referendum is a rare case of successful separation in recent years. This referendum is the result of peaceful negotiations on the Sudan's civil war,and is a protocol referendum of democratic separation. In fact,the Sudan's civil war did not necessarily lead to secession. However,the colonial history and diversity of the North and South Sudan made it extremely difficult for a peaceful resolution. Due to the special geographic location of Sudan,its uneven distribution of resources,apparent cultural differences between the North and the South,as well as the mediation of the international community,using referendum to solve disputes has become a possible option that can be accepted by all parties. The referendum has both positive and negative influences,and probably does not develop as the outside had expected. While North-South relations were unpredictable,the South faces fierce and cruel internal waves. The roots of internal and diplomatic difficulties in South Sudan might lie in the flaws in the comprehensive peace agreement,the farfetched link separation with peace,and the pursuit of self-interest by major stakeholders. This paper argues that neither referendum nor secession are good ways to resolve a country's internal conflicts. Actually,the essential problem is to find an effective and lasting-peace strategy.
引文
(1)“苏丹南北”是一个地理上的概念,亦简称为南方和北方,与此类似的还包括南部和北部,以及南方人、北方人、南北双方、南北之间、南北矛盾、南北内战等,特指分裂前的苏丹内部的南北关系;从2005年到分裂后则演化成了苏丹(北苏丹)与南苏丹的关系,为了遵循习惯用法,笔者称之为“南、北苏丹”。同时,在地理概念之下的二者关系也衍生出了不同的政治概念,比如:在分裂前可区分为:中央政府与南方叛乱团体,中央政府与南方政权或政府、南方自治政府(2005-2011)等等;分裂后,即是苏丹政府与南苏丹政府。
(2)“2010 World Fact Book:Sudan People 2010,”United States Central Intelligence Agency,January 27,2010,https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/download/download-2010/index. html,登录时间:2018年10月24 日。
(1)Deon Geldenhuys,“Darfur and Sudan's Politics of Deviance,”Africa Insight,Vol.35,No.3,2005,p.40.
(2)Alison J.Ayers,“Beyond The Ideology of‘Civil War':The Global-Historical Constitution of Political Violence in Sudan,”The Journal of Pan African Studies,Vol.4,No.10,2012,p.280.
(3)Ahmed T.el-Gaili,“Federalism and the Tyranny of Religious Majorities:Challenges to Islamic Federalism in Sudan,”Harvard International LawJournal,Vol.45,No.2,2004,p.520.
(4)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,Vol.22,No.4,1999,pp.346-347.
(5)Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos,“When Do Religious Leaders Support Faith-Based Violence?Evidence from a Survey Poll in South Sudan,”Political Research Quarterly,Vol.68,No.4,2015,p.760.
(6)Heather J.Sharkey,“Arab Identity and Ideology in Sudan:The Politics of Language,Ethnicity and Race,”African Affairs,Vol.107,No.426,2008,p.39.
(7)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.348.
(1)Wendy Isaacs-Martin,“National Identity and Distinctiveness:Developing a Common Identity in a Nation State(with References to South Africa),”Africa Insight,Vol.42,No.2,2012,p.171.
(2)Kenneth Omeje and Nicodemus Minde,“The SPLM Government and the Challenges of Conflict Settlement,State-Building and Peace-Building in South Sudan,”African Insight,Vol.45,No.1,2015,p.53.
(3)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.345.
(1)Mansour Khalid,War and Peace in the Sudan:A Tale of Two Countries,London:Kegan Paul International,2003,p.344.
(2)余建华:《南苏丹“独立”:投票易分家难》,载《文汇报》2011年1月31日,第6版。
(3)Curtis Bell and Scott Wolford,“Oil Discoveries,Shifting Power,and Civil Conflict,”International Studies Quarterly,Vol.59,No.3,2015,p.517.
(4)Luke A.Patey,“Crude Days Ahead?Oil and the Resource Curse in Sudan,”African Affairs,Vol.109,No.437,2010,p.631.
(1)东非政府间发展组织,英文名称为“Intergovernmental Authority on Development”,简称“IGAD”。成立于1996年,其前身是东非政府间抗旱发展组织,目前共有八个会员国,分别是吉布提、埃塞俄比亚、索马里、厄立特里亚、苏丹、肯尼亚、乌干达和南苏丹。苏丹为创始会员国,南苏丹于2011年建国后加入该组织。
(2)英文原文为“right to self-determination”,直译为“自决权”。许多外国学者乃至官方机构都将国际法上的“自决权”与宪政意义上的“自决权”混用,后者其实是指民主制度安排下的自治。但为尊重原作者,本文仍采取直译办法。
(3)Salman M.A.Salman,“South Sudan Road to Independence:Broken Promises and Lost Opportunities,”G lobal Business&Development LawJournal,Vol.26,No.2,2013,pp.385-386.
(4)Sharath Srinivasan,“The Politics of Negotiating Peace in Sudan,”in Devon Curtis and Gwinyayi Dzinesa,eds.,Peacebuilding,Power,and Politics in Africa,Athens:Ohio University Press,2012,p.204.
(1)“Machakos Protocol:IGAD‘Secretariat on Peace in the Sudan’,”United Nations,July 20,2002,https://peacemaker.un.org/sudan-machakos-protocol2002,登录时间:2018年11月8日。
(2)“Southern Sudan Referendum Final Results Report,”Southern Sudan Referendum Commission,February7,2011,http://southernsudan2011.com/,登录时间:2018年10月26日。
(3)南苏丹公投的积极意义包括:第一,以和平方式结束了长达半个世纪的苏丹南北内战,遏制了更大冲突的爆发;第二,在一定程度上缓解了东非地缘政治上的紧张局势;第三,营造了和平的地区与国际政治环境。消极意义则是可能间接给其他地区的分离主义提供某种示范作用,分离运动或会更加活跃。
(4)王英津:《自决权理论与公民投票》,北京:九州出版社2007年版,第183页。
(1)Marc Weller,“Settling Self-determination Conflicts:Recent Developments,”The European Journal of International Law,Vol.20,No.1,2009,p.113.
(2)Michel Rosenfeld and Andras Sajo,The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Constitutional Law,Oxford:Oxford University Press,2002,pp.501-502.
(3)王英津:《自决权理论与公民投票》,第245-246页。
(4)Anthony J.Christopher,“Secession and South Sudan:An African Precedent for the Future?”South African G eographical Journal,Vol.93,No.2,2011,p.125.
(5)Glen Anderson,“Unilateral Non-Colonial Secession and the Criteria for Statehood in International Law,”Brooklyn Journal of International Law,Vol.41,No.1,2015,p.6.
(1)Scott P.Sheeran,“International Law,Peace Agreements and Self-determination:The Case of the Sudan,”International and Comparative LawQuarterly,Vol.60,No.2,2011,p.437.
(1)Jeremy Astill-Brown,South Sudan's Slide into Conflict:Revisiting the Past and Reassessing Partnerships,London:Chatham House,Royal Institute of International Affairs,December 2014,pp.3-4.
(2)Sharath Srinivasan,“The Politics of Negotiating Peace in Sudan,”p.209.
(3)Ibid.,pp.196,207.
(4)Terence M cN amee,The First Crack in Africa's Map?Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan,South Africa:The Brenthurst Foundation,January 2012,p.21.
(1)Matt Qvortrup,“Referendums on Independence,1860-2011,”The Political Quarterly,Vol.85,No.1,2014,p.64.
(2)Alex de Waa,l“When Kleptocracy Becomes Insolvent:Brute Causes of the Civil War in South Sudan,”African Affairs,Vol.113,No.452,2014,pp.367,348.
(3)Redie Bereketeab,“Redefining National Identity and Nation-Building in Post-secession Sudans:Civic and Ethnic M odels,”Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism,Vol.14,No.2,2014,p.303.
(4)Kiertisak Toh and Prahlad Kastur,i“Foreign Aid in Post-Conflict Countries:The Case of South Sudan,”Journal of Third World Studies,Vol.29,No.2,2012,p.203.
(1)Terence McN amee,The First Crack in Africa's Map?Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan,pp.3,9.
(2)Rogen Dean,“Rethinking the Civil War in Sudan,”Civil Wars,Vol.3,No.1,2000,p.81.
(3)Thomas W.Simon,“Remedial Secession:What the LawShould Have Done,from Katanga to Kosovo,”G eorgia Journal of International and Comparative Law,Vol.40,No.1,2011,p.142.
(4)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.337.
(5)Obehi S.Okojie,“Between Secession and Federalism:The Independence of South Sudan and the Need for a Reconsidered Nigeria,”Global Business&Development LawJournal,Vol.26,No.2,2013,p.439.
(1)James D.Fearon,“Separatist Wars,Partition,and World Order,”Security Studies,Vol.13,No.4,2004,p.394.
(2)Sedfrey M.Candelaria and Regina Ann L.Nonato,“An Overviewof the International Legal Concept of Peace Agreements as Applied to Current Philippine Peace Processes,”Ateneo LawJournal,Vol.53,No.2,2008,pp.294-295.
(3)Jenik Radon and Sarah Logan,“South Sudan:Governance Arrangements,War,and Peace,”Journal of International Affairs,Vol.68,No.1,2014,p.159.
(2)“2010 World Fact Book:Sudan People 2010,”United States Central Intelligence Agency,January 27,2010,https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/download/download-2010/index. html,登录时间:2018年10月24 日。
(1)Deon Geldenhuys,“Darfur and Sudan's Politics of Deviance,”Africa Insight,Vol.35,No.3,2005,p.40.
(2)Alison J.Ayers,“Beyond The Ideology of‘Civil War':The Global-Historical Constitution of Political Violence in Sudan,”The Journal of Pan African Studies,Vol.4,No.10,2012,p.280.
(3)Ahmed T.el-Gaili,“Federalism and the Tyranny of Religious Majorities:Challenges to Islamic Federalism in Sudan,”Harvard International LawJournal,Vol.45,No.2,2004,p.520.
(4)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”Studies in Conflict&Terrorism,Vol.22,No.4,1999,pp.346-347.
(5)Matthias Basedau and Carlo Koos,“When Do Religious Leaders Support Faith-Based Violence?Evidence from a Survey Poll in South Sudan,”Political Research Quarterly,Vol.68,No.4,2015,p.760.
(6)Heather J.Sharkey,“Arab Identity and Ideology in Sudan:The Politics of Language,Ethnicity and Race,”African Affairs,Vol.107,No.426,2008,p.39.
(7)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.348.
(1)Wendy Isaacs-Martin,“National Identity and Distinctiveness:Developing a Common Identity in a Nation State(with References to South Africa),”Africa Insight,Vol.42,No.2,2012,p.171.
(2)Kenneth Omeje and Nicodemus Minde,“The SPLM Government and the Challenges of Conflict Settlement,State-Building and Peace-Building in South Sudan,”African Insight,Vol.45,No.1,2015,p.53.
(3)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.345.
(1)Mansour Khalid,War and Peace in the Sudan:A Tale of Two Countries,London:Kegan Paul International,2003,p.344.
(2)余建华:《南苏丹“独立”:投票易分家难》,载《文汇报》2011年1月31日,第6版。
(3)Curtis Bell and Scott Wolford,“Oil Discoveries,Shifting Power,and Civil Conflict,”International Studies Quarterly,Vol.59,No.3,2015,p.517.
(4)Luke A.Patey,“Crude Days Ahead?Oil and the Resource Curse in Sudan,”African Affairs,Vol.109,No.437,2010,p.631.
(1)东非政府间发展组织,英文名称为“Intergovernmental Authority on Development”,简称“IGAD”。成立于1996年,其前身是东非政府间抗旱发展组织,目前共有八个会员国,分别是吉布提、埃塞俄比亚、索马里、厄立特里亚、苏丹、肯尼亚、乌干达和南苏丹。苏丹为创始会员国,南苏丹于2011年建国后加入该组织。
(2)英文原文为“right to self-determination”,直译为“自决权”。许多外国学者乃至官方机构都将国际法上的“自决权”与宪政意义上的“自决权”混用,后者其实是指民主制度安排下的自治。但为尊重原作者,本文仍采取直译办法。
(3)Salman M.A.Salman,“South Sudan Road to Independence:Broken Promises and Lost Opportunities,”G lobal Business&Development LawJournal,Vol.26,No.2,2013,pp.385-386.
(4)Sharath Srinivasan,“The Politics of Negotiating Peace in Sudan,”in Devon Curtis and Gwinyayi Dzinesa,eds.,Peacebuilding,Power,and Politics in Africa,Athens:Ohio University Press,2012,p.204.
(1)“Machakos Protocol:IGAD‘Secretariat on Peace in the Sudan’,”United Nations,July 20,2002,https://peacemaker.un.org/sudan-machakos-protocol2002,登录时间:2018年11月8日。
(2)“Southern Sudan Referendum Final Results Report,”Southern Sudan Referendum Commission,February7,2011,http://southernsudan2011.com/,登录时间:2018年10月26日。
(3)南苏丹公投的积极意义包括:第一,以和平方式结束了长达半个世纪的苏丹南北内战,遏制了更大冲突的爆发;第二,在一定程度上缓解了东非地缘政治上的紧张局势;第三,营造了和平的地区与国际政治环境。消极意义则是可能间接给其他地区的分离主义提供某种示范作用,分离运动或会更加活跃。
(4)王英津:《自决权理论与公民投票》,北京:九州出版社2007年版,第183页。
(1)Marc Weller,“Settling Self-determination Conflicts:Recent Developments,”The European Journal of International Law,Vol.20,No.1,2009,p.113.
(2)Michel Rosenfeld and Andras Sajo,The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Constitutional Law,Oxford:Oxford University Press,2002,pp.501-502.
(3)王英津:《自决权理论与公民投票》,第245-246页。
(4)Anthony J.Christopher,“Secession and South Sudan:An African Precedent for the Future?”South African G eographical Journal,Vol.93,No.2,2011,p.125.
(5)Glen Anderson,“Unilateral Non-Colonial Secession and the Criteria for Statehood in International Law,”Brooklyn Journal of International Law,Vol.41,No.1,2015,p.6.
(1)Scott P.Sheeran,“International Law,Peace Agreements and Self-determination:The Case of the Sudan,”International and Comparative LawQuarterly,Vol.60,No.2,2011,p.437.
(1)Jeremy Astill-Brown,South Sudan's Slide into Conflict:Revisiting the Past and Reassessing Partnerships,London:Chatham House,Royal Institute of International Affairs,December 2014,pp.3-4.
(2)Sharath Srinivasan,“The Politics of Negotiating Peace in Sudan,”p.209.
(3)Ibid.,pp.196,207.
(4)Terence M cN amee,The First Crack in Africa's Map?Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan,South Africa:The Brenthurst Foundation,January 2012,p.21.
(1)Matt Qvortrup,“Referendums on Independence,1860-2011,”The Political Quarterly,Vol.85,No.1,2014,p.64.
(2)Alex de Waa,l“When Kleptocracy Becomes Insolvent:Brute Causes of the Civil War in South Sudan,”African Affairs,Vol.113,No.452,2014,pp.367,348.
(3)Redie Bereketeab,“Redefining National Identity and Nation-Building in Post-secession Sudans:Civic and Ethnic M odels,”Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism,Vol.14,No.2,2014,p.303.
(4)Kiertisak Toh and Prahlad Kastur,i“Foreign Aid in Post-Conflict Countries:The Case of South Sudan,”Journal of Third World Studies,Vol.29,No.2,2012,p.203.
(1)Terence McN amee,The First Crack in Africa's Map?Secession and Self-Determination after South Sudan,pp.3,9.
(2)Rogen Dean,“Rethinking the Civil War in Sudan,”Civil Wars,Vol.3,No.1,2000,p.81.
(3)Thomas W.Simon,“Remedial Secession:What the LawShould Have Done,from Katanga to Kosovo,”G eorgia Journal of International and Comparative Law,Vol.40,No.1,2011,p.142.
(4)Sarah Kenyon Lischer,“Causes of Communal War:Fear and Feasibility,”p.337.
(5)Obehi S.Okojie,“Between Secession and Federalism:The Independence of South Sudan and the Need for a Reconsidered Nigeria,”Global Business&Development LawJournal,Vol.26,No.2,2013,p.439.
(1)James D.Fearon,“Separatist Wars,Partition,and World Order,”Security Studies,Vol.13,No.4,2004,p.394.
(2)Sedfrey M.Candelaria and Regina Ann L.Nonato,“An Overviewof the International Legal Concept of Peace Agreements as Applied to Current Philippine Peace Processes,”Ateneo LawJournal,Vol.53,No.2,2008,pp.294-295.
(3)Jenik Radon and Sarah Logan,“South Sudan:Governance Arrangements,War,and Peace,”Journal of International Affairs,Vol.68,No.1,2014,p.159.