我国大宗农产品贸易格局及对外依存度研究——基于虚拟耕地资源的分析和评价
|
摘要
我国已成为农产品进口大国,而所有农产品中都隐含有一定的耕地资源,论文基于农产品虚拟耕地资源的分析和评价,系统研究了我国大宗农产品贸易格局及对外依存度。论文所涉及的大宗农产品及其制品主要是土地资源密集型产品,包括粮食、油料、木薯、植物油、棉花、糖、饲料粕类等7大类,24个具体品种,以2000—2016年分国别的贸易数据为基础,从消费者的角度对大宗农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量进行了分析和评价。研究结果显示,我国大宗农产品虚拟耕地资源净进口量由2000年的675×10~4 hm~2增加到2016年的5 928×10~4 hm~2,其中美国和巴西是中国农产品虚拟耕地进口量最大的国家,进口量分别由2000年的342×10~4 和146×10~4 hm~2,增加到2016年的2 101×10~4 和2 192×10~4 hm~2,占我国虚拟耕地进口总量比例超过70%;2016年农业耕地资源对外依存度达到30.5%,对巴西和美国的依存度分别为11.3%和10.8%。土地密集型农产品的大量进口,在一定程度上缓解了我国耕地资源紧张的压力,保证了粮食安全。
China has become a major importer of agricultural products. Arable land resource is implicit in agricultural products. This paper aims to study the pattern of agricultural products trade and external dependence based on the analysis of virtual land resources of agricultural products. The agricultural products discussed in this paper are mainly land resources intensive products, including seven categories(grain, oil, cassava,vegetable oil, cotton, sugar and feed meal), comprising of 24 specific varieties. This study analyzed and evaluated the virtual land resources from the consumer's perspective based on the trade data from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that Chinese virtual land resources import has increased from 675 × 10~4 hm~2in2000 to 5 928 × 10~4 hm~2 in 2016. The USA and Brazil are the largest exporting country to China, the exported volume increased from 342 × 10~4 and 146 × 10~4 hm~2 to 2 101 × 10~4 hm~2and2 192×10~4 hm~2respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total import of virtual arable land. The external dependence of agricultural land in China reached 30.5% in 2016,accordingly the dependence on Brazil and USA being 11.3% and 10.8%. The large quantities of land intensive agricultural products import alleviate the pressure of being short of arable land resource in our country to a certain extent, and ensure food security.
China has become a major importer of agricultural products. Arable land resource is implicit in agricultural products. This paper aims to study the pattern of agricultural products trade and external dependence based on the analysis of virtual land resources of agricultural products. The agricultural products discussed in this paper are mainly land resources intensive products, including seven categories(grain, oil, cassava,vegetable oil, cotton, sugar and feed meal), comprising of 24 specific varieties. This study analyzed and evaluated the virtual land resources from the consumer's perspective based on the trade data from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that Chinese virtual land resources import has increased from 675 × 10~4 hm~2in2000 to 5 928 × 10~4 hm~2 in 2016. The USA and Brazil are the largest exporting country to China, the exported volume increased from 342 × 10~4 and 146 × 10~4 hm~2 to 2 101 × 10~4 hm~2and2 192×10~4 hm~2respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total import of virtual arable land. The external dependence of agricultural land in China reached 30.5% in 2016,accordingly the dependence on Brazil and USA being 11.3% and 10.8%. The large quantities of land intensive agricultural products import alleviate the pressure of being short of arable land resource in our country to a certain extent, and ensure food security.
引文
[1]HUANG H,LAMPE M V,TONGEREN F V.Climate change and trade in agriculture[J].Food Policy,2011,36(S1):S9-S13.
[2]成升魁,沈镭,徐增让.2010中国资源报告——资源流动:格局、效应及对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.[CHENG S K,SEHN L,XU Z R.China Resources Report—Resource Flow:Pattern,Effect and Countermeasure[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.]
[3]BORGSTR?M G.The hungry planet:The modern world at the edge of famine[J].Journal of European Economic History,1967,22(1):99-112.
[4]REES W E.Ecological Footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J].Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.
[5]HOEKSTRA A Y,HUNG P Q.Globalisation of water resources:International virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):45-56.
[6]ERB K H.Actual land demand of Austria 1926-2000:A variation on ecological footprint assessments[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):247-259.
[7]KASTNER T,NONHEBEL S.Changes in land requirements for food in the Philippines:A historical analysis[J].Land Use Policy,2010,27(3):853-863.
[8]KISSINGER M,REES W E.Importing terrestrial biocapacity:The US case and global implications[J].Land Use Policy,2010,27(2):589-599.
[9]马博虎.我国粮食贸易中农业资源要素流研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2010.[MA B H.Analysis of Agri-resources Elements Flow in China’s Grains Trade.Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2010.]
[10]瞿商,杨祖义.粮食安全与中国耕地关系的动态调整——基于1980—2004年中国虚拟耕地及其贸易的研究[J].当代中国史研究,2009(2):69-75,127.[QU S,YANG Z Y.Dynamic readjustments to the relations between grain security and China’s farmland:Based on studies of China’s virtual farmland and its trade from 1980 to 2004.Contemporary China History Studies,2009(2):69-75,127.]
[11]王维方,刘爱民,强文丽.中国大豆资源的虚拟土贸易及进口依存度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1139-1147.[WANG W F,LIU A M,QIANG W L.Virtual land trades and external dependences of China’s soybean resources.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(7):1139-1147.]
[12]强文丽,刘爱民,成升魁,等.中国农产品贸易的虚拟土地资源量化研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1289-1297.[QIANG W L,LIU A M,CHENG S K,et al.Quantification of virtual land resources in Chinas crop trade.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1289-1297.]
[13]CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y.Virtual Water Flows between Nations in Relation to Trade in Livestock and Livestock Products[R].Value of Water Research Report Series,Delft,the Netherlands:UNESCO-IHE,Institute for Water Education,2003.
[2]成升魁,沈镭,徐增让.2010中国资源报告——资源流动:格局、效应及对策[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.[CHENG S K,SEHN L,XU Z R.China Resources Report—Resource Flow:Pattern,Effect and Countermeasure[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.]
[3]BORGSTR?M G.The hungry planet:The modern world at the edge of famine[J].Journal of European Economic History,1967,22(1):99-112.
[4]REES W E.Ecological Footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J].Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.
[5]HOEKSTRA A Y,HUNG P Q.Globalisation of water resources:International virtual water flows in relation to crop trade[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):45-56.
[6]ERB K H.Actual land demand of Austria 1926-2000:A variation on ecological footprint assessments[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):247-259.
[7]KASTNER T,NONHEBEL S.Changes in land requirements for food in the Philippines:A historical analysis[J].Land Use Policy,2010,27(3):853-863.
[8]KISSINGER M,REES W E.Importing terrestrial biocapacity:The US case and global implications[J].Land Use Policy,2010,27(2):589-599.
[9]马博虎.我国粮食贸易中农业资源要素流研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2010.[MA B H.Analysis of Agri-resources Elements Flow in China’s Grains Trade.Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2010.]
[10]瞿商,杨祖义.粮食安全与中国耕地关系的动态调整——基于1980—2004年中国虚拟耕地及其贸易的研究[J].当代中国史研究,2009(2):69-75,127.[QU S,YANG Z Y.Dynamic readjustments to the relations between grain security and China’s farmland:Based on studies of China’s virtual farmland and its trade from 1980 to 2004.Contemporary China History Studies,2009(2):69-75,127.]
[11]王维方,刘爱民,强文丽.中国大豆资源的虚拟土贸易及进口依存度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1139-1147.[WANG W F,LIU A M,QIANG W L.Virtual land trades and external dependences of China’s soybean resources.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(7):1139-1147.]
[12]强文丽,刘爱民,成升魁,等.中国农产品贸易的虚拟土地资源量化研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(8):1289-1297.[QIANG W L,LIU A M,CHENG S K,et al.Quantification of virtual land resources in Chinas crop trade.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(8):1289-1297.]
[13]CHAPAGAIN A K,HOEKSTRA A Y.Virtual Water Flows between Nations in Relation to Trade in Livestock and Livestock Products[R].Value of Water Research Report Series,Delft,the Netherlands:UNESCO-IHE,Institute for Water Education,2003.