中国与“一带一路”沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势及其虚拟耕地资源流量估算
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摘要
中国与"一带一路"沿线国家共同开展互利共赢的更大范围、更高水平、更深层次农业合作,特别是加强与"一带一路"沿线主要粮食出口国经贸关系,对中国更好地充实耕地资源占有量和保障国家粮食安全战略实施有重要现实意义。以稻米、小麦、玉米和大豆为例,分析了1995—2016年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家粮食贸易演变趋势,并估算了双方粮食贸易的虚拟耕地资源流量。结果表明:中国与"一带一路"沿线国家粮食贸易量持续波动变化,2008年以来中国一直处于净进口地位且净进口量不断增长,2013年"一带一路"倡议提出以来增速更快且中国主要出口稻米、主要进口稻米和玉米;"一带一路"倡议提出前后的2008—2012年和2013—2016年,中国通过粮食贸易从"一带一路"沿线国家分别累计净进口虚拟耕地83.60万公顷和403.53万公顷,其中通过稻米贸易分别累计净进口虚拟耕地73.84万公顷和239.74万公顷。
China should carry out a broader,higher-standard and deeper agricultural cooperation with countries along the"One Belt and One Road"(OBOR)in a mutual-beneficial way.To reinforce the economic and trade relationship with the main grain exporting countries along the OBOR is of great importance for China to better enrich the amount of arable land resource and safeguard the implementation of national food security strategy.Taking rice,wheat,maize and soybean as example,this paper analyzes the variation trend of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR(1995-2016),and estimates the virtual arable land resource flows.The results indicate that:(1)The amount of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR fluctuates continuously,and China has always been a net-importer,and the net-imports have kept growing since 2008 and even quicker since 2013 when the OBOR Initiative was put forward;(2)Since the OBOR Initiative was put forward,China mainly exports rice to countries along the OBOR,and from which mainly imports rice and maize;(3)China's accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by grain trade with countries along the OBOR is 0.836 0 million hm~2(2008-2012)and 4.035 3 million hm~2(2013-2016),and the accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by rice trade is0.738 4 million hm~2 and 2.397 4 million hm~2 respectively.
China should carry out a broader,higher-standard and deeper agricultural cooperation with countries along the"One Belt and One Road"(OBOR)in a mutual-beneficial way.To reinforce the economic and trade relationship with the main grain exporting countries along the OBOR is of great importance for China to better enrich the amount of arable land resource and safeguard the implementation of national food security strategy.Taking rice,wheat,maize and soybean as example,this paper analyzes the variation trend of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR(1995-2016),and estimates the virtual arable land resource flows.The results indicate that:(1)The amount of grain trade between China and countries along the OBOR fluctuates continuously,and China has always been a net-importer,and the net-imports have kept growing since 2008 and even quicker since 2013 when the OBOR Initiative was put forward;(2)Since the OBOR Initiative was put forward,China mainly exports rice to countries along the OBOR,and from which mainly imports rice and maize;(3)China's accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by grain trade with countries along the OBOR is 0.836 0 million hm~2(2008-2012)and 4.035 3 million hm~2(2013-2016),and the accumulated net-imports of virtual arable land resource by rice trade is0.738 4 million hm~2 and 2.397 4 million hm~2 respectively.
引文
[1]唐华俊.新形势下中国粮食自给战略[J].农业经济问题,2014(2):4-10.
[2]韩俊.新形势下推进农业转型发展的若干思考[J].中国经济报告,2016(12):15-17.
[3] FUKASE E,MARTIN W.Who will feed China in the 21st century?Income growth and food demand and supply in China[J].Journal of agricultural economics,2014,67(1):3-23.
[4]陈锡文.落实发展新理念破解农业新难题[J].农业经济问题,2016(3):4-10.
[5]黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择[J].中国科学院院刊,2013,28(3):295-300.
[6]万宝瑞.加快提高我国农业竞争力的思考[J].农业经济问题,2016(4):4-8.
[7] WANG J,LI Y,HUANG J,et al.Growing water scarcity,food security and government responses in China[J].Global food security,2017,14(4):9-17.
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[9] QIANG W,LIU A,CHENG S,et al.Agricultural trade and virtual land use:the case of China’s crop trade[J].Land use policy,2013,33(4):141-150.
[10]KASTNER T,IBARROLA R M J,KOCH W,et al.Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food[J].Proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(18):6868-6872.
[11]赵姚阳,王洁,张莉.粮食安全新政背景下保障我国谷物基本自给的耕地需求研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):1-6.
[12]成丽,方天堃,潘春玲.中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地贸易的估算[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):25-31.
[13]ALI T,HUANG J,WANG J,et al.Global footprints of water and land resources through China’s food trade[J].Global food security,2017,12(1):139-145.
[14]刘红梅,王克强,石芳.中国粮食虚拟土地资源进口的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2007(11):26-33.
[15]ALLAN J A.Fortunately there are substitute for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[R].Priorities for water resources allocation and management,London,1993.
[16]WRTENBERGER L,KOELLNER T,BINDER C R.Virtual land use and agricultural trade:estimating environmental and socioeconomic impacts[J].Ecological economics,2006,57(4):679-697.
[17]ZHANG J,ZHAO N,LIU X,et al.Global virtual-land flow and saving through international cereal trade[J].Journal of geographical sciences,2016,26(5):619-639.
[18]王维方,刘爱民,强文丽.中国大豆资源的虚拟土贸易及进口依存度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1139-1147.
[19]马博虎,张宝文.中国粮食对外贸易中虚拟耕地贸易量的估算与贡献分析——基于1978-2008年中国粮食对外贸易数据的实证分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(6):115-119.
[20]FADER M,GERTEN D,THAMMER M.Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations,and related water and land savings through trade[J].Hydrology and earth system sciences,2011,15(5):1641-1660.
[21]柯新利.我国耕地保护目标责任及区域补偿研究进展[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(1):9-14.
[22]刘守英.土地制度变革与中国经济发展[J].新金融,2017(6):8-14.
[23]刘幸菡,吴国蔚.虚拟水贸易在我国农产品贸易中的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2005(9):10-15.
(1)数据来源:世界银行世界发展指标(World Development Indicators)数据库,https://data.worldbank.org/indicator?tab=all.
[2]韩俊.新形势下推进农业转型发展的若干思考[J].中国经济报告,2016(12):15-17.
[3] FUKASE E,MARTIN W.Who will feed China in the 21st century?Income growth and food demand and supply in China[J].Journal of agricultural economics,2014,67(1):3-23.
[4]陈锡文.落实发展新理念破解农业新难题[J].农业经济问题,2016(3):4-10.
[5]黄季焜.新时期的中国农业发展:机遇、挑战和战略选择[J].中国科学院院刊,2013,28(3):295-300.
[6]万宝瑞.加快提高我国农业竞争力的思考[J].农业经济问题,2016(4):4-8.
[7] WANG J,LI Y,HUANG J,et al.Growing water scarcity,food security and government responses in China[J].Global food security,2017,14(4):9-17.
[8] HUANG H,VON LAMPE M,VANTONGEREN F.Climate change and trade in agriculture[J].Food policy,2011,36(1):9-13.
[9] QIANG W,LIU A,CHENG S,et al.Agricultural trade and virtual land use:the case of China’s crop trade[J].Land use policy,2013,33(4):141-150.
[10]KASTNER T,IBARROLA R M J,KOCH W,et al.Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food[J].Proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the United States of America,2012,109(18):6868-6872.
[11]赵姚阳,王洁,张莉.粮食安全新政背景下保障我国谷物基本自给的耕地需求研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):1-6.
[12]成丽,方天堃,潘春玲.中国粮食贸易中虚拟耕地贸易的估算[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):25-31.
[13]ALI T,HUANG J,WANG J,et al.Global footprints of water and land resources through China’s food trade[J].Global food security,2017,12(1):139-145.
[14]刘红梅,王克强,石芳.中国粮食虚拟土地资源进口的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2007(11):26-33.
[15]ALLAN J A.Fortunately there are substitute for water otherwise our hydro-political futures would be impossible[R].Priorities for water resources allocation and management,London,1993.
[16]WRTENBERGER L,KOELLNER T,BINDER C R.Virtual land use and agricultural trade:estimating environmental and socioeconomic impacts[J].Ecological economics,2006,57(4):679-697.
[17]ZHANG J,ZHAO N,LIU X,et al.Global virtual-land flow and saving through international cereal trade[J].Journal of geographical sciences,2016,26(5):619-639.
[18]王维方,刘爱民,强文丽.中国大豆资源的虚拟土贸易及进口依存度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(7):1139-1147.
[19]马博虎,张宝文.中国粮食对外贸易中虚拟耕地贸易量的估算与贡献分析——基于1978-2008年中国粮食对外贸易数据的实证分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(6):115-119.
[20]FADER M,GERTEN D,THAMMER M.Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations,and related water and land savings through trade[J].Hydrology and earth system sciences,2011,15(5):1641-1660.
[21]柯新利.我国耕地保护目标责任及区域补偿研究进展[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2014(1):9-14.
[22]刘守英.土地制度变革与中国经济发展[J].新金融,2017(6):8-14.
[23]刘幸菡,吴国蔚.虚拟水贸易在我国农产品贸易中的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2005(9):10-15.
(1)数据来源:世界银行世界发展指标(World Development Indicators)数据库,https://data.worldbank.org/indicator?tab=all.