要素投入对中国森林公园旅游经济的贡献分析——基于省级面板数据的实证
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摘要
根据2004—2014年中国森林公园要素投入的特点,构建CD函数;采用面板回归法验证劳动、土地和资本对全国及各地区旅游收入结构的影响水平;利用要素贡献率分别计算劳动、技术等生产要素在森林公园旅游经济增长中的贡献水平。结果表明:在其他条件保持不变的情况下,土地、劳动力和资本每增加一个单位分别能够促进旅游总收入增加2.14、0.93和0.21个单位;土地和资本是影响门票收入的主要因素,劳动力和土地是影响食宿收入的主要因素,资本是影响娱乐收入的重要因素,而其他收入主要影响因素为土地要素;2004—2014年,中国森林公园旅游经济增长68.80%依赖土地要素投入,31.20%依赖劳动要素投入,资本和以技术为代表的其他要素分别贡献3.10%和-3.10%;东、中、西3个地区的要素贡献率存在明显差异,区域间不合理的要素贡献率使得中国森林公园旅游经济"差距格局"初步形成。
(1)Background——The development of the tourism economy of China's forest parks presents a situation of"big but not strong". The level of regional development differs greatly,and the structure of tourism revenue is rigid. With the rapid growth of ecological leisure consumer demand and increasingly tight constraints on resources and environment,the management of forest parks is facing great pressure to protect the ecological environment while improving the utilization efficiency and efficiency of tourism resources. How to improve the efficiency of forest park tourism development and promote the sustainable development of forest park tourism has become a problem that requires urgent thinking and resolution.(2)Methods——This article analyzed the influencing factors of China's forest park tourism revenue and tourism income structure,and calculated the contribution of labor,land,capital,and technology to the forest park tourism economy in each region of China by using Cobb-Douglas function( CD function),factor contribution rate and panel regression methods with the statistical data of the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2015.(3)Results——The study found:(1)The labor,land,and capital are the three core factors affecting total tourism revenue. Under the other conditions remaining unchanged,one additional unit of land,labor,and capital can increase total revenue by 2. 14 units,0. 93 units and 0. 21 units.(2)Land and capital are the main factors affecting ticket income; labor and land are the main factors affecting food and lodging income; Labor,land,and capital all affect entertainment income,but the capital has the highest significance level; the main influencing factor of other income is the land.(3)From 2004 to 2014,68. 80% of China's forest park tourism economic growth relied on input of land factors; 31. 20% relied on labor factor inputs; capital and other factors represented by technology contributed 3. 10% and-3. 10% respectively.(4)Compared with the eastern and western regions of China,the factor contribution rate of tourism revenue in the central regionforest parks is the most reasonable,and the contribution rates of the land,labor,technology and other factors are 64. 40%,20. 40%,and 14. 80% respectively.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——According to research findings,in order to achieve sustainable development of the tourism economy of China's forest parks,three aspects can be used to improve the development of China's forest park tourism economy. The first is to control the over-investment of land factors. The eastern region should increase the degree of intensive use of land,prevent over-exploitation of land,and strive to increase the contribution rate of capital and technical factors. Under the existing supply structure,the central region can further increase the contribution rate of the capital factor and promote the forest park tourism economy to a higher level. The western region must change the status of over-reliance on land factors,and strive to increase the output of capital and technical factors. The second is to increase the contribution rate of technical factors and improve the technical supply environment. By increasing the input and output of technical factors,the over-investment of land factor can be alleviated. A more rational factor input structure can be implemented,and the sustainable development of the forest park tourism economy can be promoted. The third is to rationally arrange the regional distribution of different factors,and the capital factors should be appropriately tilted to the central and western regions. Certain subsidies and encouragement should be given to the input of labor in the forest parks.
(1)Background——The development of the tourism economy of China's forest parks presents a situation of"big but not strong". The level of regional development differs greatly,and the structure of tourism revenue is rigid. With the rapid growth of ecological leisure consumer demand and increasingly tight constraints on resources and environment,the management of forest parks is facing great pressure to protect the ecological environment while improving the utilization efficiency and efficiency of tourism resources. How to improve the efficiency of forest park tourism development and promote the sustainable development of forest park tourism has become a problem that requires urgent thinking and resolution.(2)Methods——This article analyzed the influencing factors of China's forest park tourism revenue and tourism income structure,and calculated the contribution of labor,land,capital,and technology to the forest park tourism economy in each region of China by using Cobb-Douglas function( CD function),factor contribution rate and panel regression methods with the statistical data of the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2015.(3)Results——The study found:(1)The labor,land,and capital are the three core factors affecting total tourism revenue. Under the other conditions remaining unchanged,one additional unit of land,labor,and capital can increase total revenue by 2. 14 units,0. 93 units and 0. 21 units.(2)Land and capital are the main factors affecting ticket income; labor and land are the main factors affecting food and lodging income; Labor,land,and capital all affect entertainment income,but the capital has the highest significance level; the main influencing factor of other income is the land.(3)From 2004 to 2014,68. 80% of China's forest park tourism economic growth relied on input of land factors; 31. 20% relied on labor factor inputs; capital and other factors represented by technology contributed 3. 10% and-3. 10% respectively.(4)Compared with the eastern and western regions of China,the factor contribution rate of tourism revenue in the central regionforest parks is the most reasonable,and the contribution rates of the land,labor,technology and other factors are 64. 40%,20. 40%,and 14. 80% respectively.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——According to research findings,in order to achieve sustainable development of the tourism economy of China's forest parks,three aspects can be used to improve the development of China's forest park tourism economy. The first is to control the over-investment of land factors. The eastern region should increase the degree of intensive use of land,prevent over-exploitation of land,and strive to increase the contribution rate of capital and technical factors. Under the existing supply structure,the central region can further increase the contribution rate of the capital factor and promote the forest park tourism economy to a higher level. The western region must change the status of over-reliance on land factors,and strive to increase the output of capital and technical factors. The second is to increase the contribution rate of technical factors and improve the technical supply environment. By increasing the input and output of technical factors,the over-investment of land factor can be alleviated. A more rational factor input structure can be implemented,and the sustainable development of the forest park tourism economy can be promoted. The third is to rationally arrange the regional distribution of different factors,and the capital factors should be appropriately tilted to the central and western regions. Certain subsidies and encouragement should be given to the input of labor in the forest parks.
引文
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[4]黄秀娟,黄福才.中国省域森林公园技术效率测算与分析[J].旅游学刊,2011,26(3):25-30.
[5]袁志刚.深化要素市场改革,创新对外开放模式[J].经济研究,2013,48(2):19-20,54.
[6]鞠蕾,高越青,王立国.供给侧视角下的产能过剩治理:要素市场扭曲与产能过剩[J].宏观经济研究,2016(5):3-15,127.
[7]李凯杰.供给侧改革与新常态下我国出口贸易转型升级[J].经济学家,2016(4):96-102.
[8]贾康,苏京春.论供给侧改革[J].管理世界,2016(3):1-24.
[9]吴敬琏.供给侧改革:经济转型重塑中国布局[M].北京:中国文史出版社,2016:33-39.
[10]黄秀娟.中国森林公园旅游发展效率的比较与分析[J].林业科学,2011,47(12):22-27.
[11]黄秀娟,林秀治.我国森林公园旅游效率及其影响因素[J].林业科学,2015,51(2):137-146.
[12]丁振民,黄秀娟.资本投入对中国森林公园旅游效率的影响研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(7):1363-1372.
[13]栾大鹏,欧阳日辉.生产要素内部投入结构与中国经济增长[J].世界经济,2012,35(6):78-92.
[14]朱富强,朱鹏扬.经济增长的根源:投资推动抑或消费拉动:一个思想史的梳理和辨析[J].财经研究,2016,42(2):50-62.
[15]CHANG H J.Institutions and economic development:Theory,policy and history[J].Journal of Institutional Economics,2011,7(4):473-498.
[16]场圃总站.2016年森林公园建设经营情况[EB/OL].(2017-04-27)[2018-04-08].http://slgy.forestry.gov.cn.
[17]张月.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第七个五年计划(摘要)[EB/OL].(2016-03-06)[2018-04-08].http://www.china.com.cn/guoqing/2016-03/06/content_37950927_15.htm.
[18]孙琳琳,任若恩.转轨时期我国行业层面资本积累的研究:资本存量和资本流量的测算[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(3):837-862.