黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化特征及其影响因素
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摘要
人地系统是地理学研究核心和理论基石,黄河三角洲人地系统是进行脆弱性研究的典型人文—自然复合系统。在VSD框架下建立以暴露—敏感性—适应性为准则层、以自然要素和人文要素为要素层的评价指标体系,运用脆弱性评价模型和集对分析法对1995—2016年黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化特征进行实证评价,并且归纳分析脆弱性演化的影响因素。研究表明:暴露指数整体呈现上升趋势,敏感性指数经历先下降后上升的变化后进入相对平稳阶段,适应性指数经历先下降后上升的变化;黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化具有明显的阶段性特征,经历"上升、下降、上升"的过程;黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性是自然因素和人文因素综合作用的结果,自然因素是黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性的基础性因素,人文因素在自然因素基础上进一步加剧黄河三角洲人地系统的脆弱性。根据研究结果从自然环境保护和人类活动调整两方面提出降低黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性的对策建议。
Human-land system is a complex open system that composes of natural environment and human activity and it is geography's research core and theory footstone. Vulnerability is an important research content of sustainability science.Because of the new research trend of natural science and social science integration under the background of sustainable development, human-land system vulnerability becomes a hot issue of theory and practice research. As a kind of ecological vulnerable human-land system, it has a strong interaction between natural factors and human factors, Yellow River Delta can be seen as typical region that can reflect the vulnerability and human-nature complex system. This paper establishes evaluation index system of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta from the perspectives of exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity, natural elements and human elements based on the frame of vulnerability scoping diagram, empirically evaluates its evolution characteristics in 1995-2016 using vulnerability evaluation model and set pair analysis, and analyzes its influence factors by linear regression analysis. The results show that: 1) Exposure index is on the rise as a whole, sensitivity index is gradually moving into the stationary phase after the process of going down first and then rising, adaptive capacity index increased firstly and then decreased. 2) Human-land system vulnerability evolution in Yellow River Delta has the obvious stage characteristics and goes through a process of increase-decreaseincrease. Yellow River Delta's ecological environment is vulnerable and its carrying capacity to economic and social development is limited, so Yellow River Delta's development and construction need be careful. 3) Influence factors of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta include natural causes and human causes, natural causes are its fundamental factors, human causes can furtherly make it worse based on natural causes. According to the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions to reduce it from two aspects of natural environment protection and human activities.
Human-land system is a complex open system that composes of natural environment and human activity and it is geography's research core and theory footstone. Vulnerability is an important research content of sustainability science.Because of the new research trend of natural science and social science integration under the background of sustainable development, human-land system vulnerability becomes a hot issue of theory and practice research. As a kind of ecological vulnerable human-land system, it has a strong interaction between natural factors and human factors, Yellow River Delta can be seen as typical region that can reflect the vulnerability and human-nature complex system. This paper establishes evaluation index system of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta from the perspectives of exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity, natural elements and human elements based on the frame of vulnerability scoping diagram, empirically evaluates its evolution characteristics in 1995-2016 using vulnerability evaluation model and set pair analysis, and analyzes its influence factors by linear regression analysis. The results show that: 1) Exposure index is on the rise as a whole, sensitivity index is gradually moving into the stationary phase after the process of going down first and then rising, adaptive capacity index increased firstly and then decreased. 2) Human-land system vulnerability evolution in Yellow River Delta has the obvious stage characteristics and goes through a process of increase-decreaseincrease. Yellow River Delta's ecological environment is vulnerable and its carrying capacity to economic and social development is limited, so Yellow River Delta's development and construction need be careful. 3) Influence factors of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta include natural causes and human causes, natural causes are its fundamental factors, human causes can furtherly make it worse based on natural causes. According to the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions to reduce it from two aspects of natural environment protection and human activities.
引文
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[7]孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
[8]苏飞,应蓉蓉,李博.生计脆弱性研究热点与前沿的可视化[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):1 073-1 080.
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[11]樊杰.“人地关系地域系统”是综合研究地理格局形成与演变规律的理论基石[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):597-607.
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[13]Speranza C I,Wiesmann U,Rist S.An indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience in the context of social-ecological dynamics[J].Global Environmental Change,2014,28(1):109-119.
[14]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.脆弱性视角下辽宁沿海地区人海关系地域系统特征演化及可持续发展模式[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(4):32-36.
[15]Turner B L,Matsond P A,McCarthye J J,et al.Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis:three case studies[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14):8 080-8 085.
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[17]Wisner B,Blaikie P M,Cannon T,et al.At risk:natural hazards,people’s vulnerability and disasters(2nd ed)[M].London:Routledge,2004.
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[19]Cutter S L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[20]Bogardi J,Birkmann J.Vulnerability assessment:the first step towards sustainable risk reduction[C]//Malzahn D,Plapp T.Disaster and society-from hazard assessment to risk reduction.Berlin:Logos Verlag Berlin:75-82,2004.
[21]Polsky C,Neff R,Yarnal B.Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments:The vulnerability scoping diagram[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,17(34):472-485.
[22]Turner B L,Kasperson R E,Matson P A,et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14):8 074-8 079.
[23]Yi Li,Martin Kappas,Yangfan Li.Exploring the coastal urban resilience and transformation of coupled human-environment systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018(195):1 505-1 511.
[24]Marcel Kok,Matthias Lüdeke,Paul Lucas,et al.A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability[J].Regional Environmental Change,2016,16(1):229-243.
[25]Lina MaríaBerrouet,JennyMachado,ClaraVillegas-Palacio.Vulnerability of socio-ecological systems:A conceptual framework[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,84(1):632-647.
[26]Pramod K S,Abhishek N.Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate variability and change using fuzzy cognitive mapping approach[J].Climatic Change,2014,127(3-4):474-491.
[27]Yuei-An Liou,Kim Nguyen A,Ming-HsuLi.Assessing spatiotemporal eco-environmental vulnerability by Landsat data[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,80(9):52-65.
[28]陈佳,杨新军,尹莎,等.基于VSD框架的半干旱地区社会-生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟[J].地理学报,2016,71(7):1 172-1 188.
[29]周苏娥,张明军,王圣杰,等.甘肃省河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):452-462.
[30]哈斯巴根,李同昇,佟宝全.生态地区人地系统脆弱性及其发展模式研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):149-154.
[31]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4):1 436-1 445.
[32]李博,韩增林.沿海城市人地关系地域系统脆弱性研究——以大连市为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(10):1 722-1 728.
[33]程钰,任建兰,徐成龙.资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性评估——以山东枣庄市为例[J].经济地理,2015,35:(3):87-93.
[34]徐庆勇,黄玫,刘洪升,等.基于RS和GIS的珠江三角洲生态环境脆弱性综合评价[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(11):2 987-2 995.
[35]徐庆勇,黄玫,陆佩玲,等.基于RS与GIS的长江三角洲生态环境脆弱性综合评价[J].环境科学研究,2011,24(1):58-65.
[36]吴春生,黄翀,刘高焕,等.基于模糊层次分析法的黄河三角洲生态脆弱性评价[J].生态学报,2018,38(13):4 584-4 595.
[37]刘凯,任建兰,程钰,等.黄河三角洲地区社会脆弱性评价与影响因素[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):45-52.
[38]刘凯,任建兰,李雅楠.基于供需视角的黄河三角洲人地关系演变[J].经济地理,2018,38(6):28-34.
[2]Smit B J,Wandel.Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):282-292.
[3]邓慧平,赵明华.气候变化对莱州湾地区水资源脆弱性的影响[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(1):9-15.
[4]赵雪雁,巴建军.河西地区生态环境脆弱性评价与生态环境建设对策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2002,12(6):79-82.
[5]李海玲,马蓓蓓,薛东前,等.丝路经济带背景下我国西北地区城市脆弱性的空间分异与影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(2):66-73.
[6]黄晓军,王晨,胡凯丽.快速空间扩张下西安市边缘区社会脆弱性多尺度评估[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1 002-1 017.
[7]孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
[8]苏飞,应蓉蓉,李博.生计脆弱性研究热点与前沿的可视化[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):1 073-1 080.
[9]Kates R W,Clark W C,Corell R,et al.Environment and development:Sustainability science[J].Science,2001,292(5 517):641-642.
[10]吴传钧.论地理学的研究核心——人地关系地域系统[J].经济地理,1991,11(3):1-6.
[11]樊杰.“人地关系地域系统”是综合研究地理格局形成与演变规律的理论基石[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):597-607.
[12]Kates R W.What kind of a science is sustainability science?[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2011,108(49):19 449-19 450.
[13]Speranza C I,Wiesmann U,Rist S.An indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience in the context of social-ecological dynamics[J].Global Environmental Change,2014,28(1):109-119.
[14]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.脆弱性视角下辽宁沿海地区人海关系地域系统特征演化及可持续发展模式[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(4):32-36.
[15]Turner B L,Matsond P A,McCarthye J J,et al.Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis:three case studies[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14):8 080-8 085.
[16]Adger W N.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[17]Wisner B,Blaikie P M,Cannon T,et al.At risk:natural hazards,people’s vulnerability and disasters(2nd ed)[M].London:Routledge,2004.
[18]Chambers R,Conway G R.Sustainable rural livelihoods:practical concepts for the 21st century[C]//IDS.IDS discussion Paper:296.Brighton:Institute of Development Studies,1992.
[19]Cutter S L.The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[20]Bogardi J,Birkmann J.Vulnerability assessment:the first step towards sustainable risk reduction[C]//Malzahn D,Plapp T.Disaster and society-from hazard assessment to risk reduction.Berlin:Logos Verlag Berlin:75-82,2004.
[21]Polsky C,Neff R,Yarnal B.Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments:The vulnerability scoping diagram[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,17(34):472-485.
[22]Turner B L,Kasperson R E,Matson P A,et al.A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2003,100(14):8 074-8 079.
[23]Yi Li,Martin Kappas,Yangfan Li.Exploring the coastal urban resilience and transformation of coupled human-environment systems[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018(195):1 505-1 511.
[24]Marcel Kok,Matthias Lüdeke,Paul Lucas,et al.A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability[J].Regional Environmental Change,2016,16(1):229-243.
[25]Lina MaríaBerrouet,JennyMachado,ClaraVillegas-Palacio.Vulnerability of socio-ecological systems:A conceptual framework[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,84(1):632-647.
[26]Pramod K S,Abhishek N.Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate variability and change using fuzzy cognitive mapping approach[J].Climatic Change,2014,127(3-4):474-491.
[27]Yuei-An Liou,Kim Nguyen A,Ming-HsuLi.Assessing spatiotemporal eco-environmental vulnerability by Landsat data[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,80(9):52-65.
[28]陈佳,杨新军,尹莎,等.基于VSD框架的半干旱地区社会-生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟[J].地理学报,2016,71(7):1 172-1 188.
[29]周苏娥,张明军,王圣杰,等.甘肃省河西地区自然-社会系统脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):452-462.
[30]哈斯巴根,李同昇,佟宝全.生态地区人地系统脆弱性及其发展模式研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):149-154.
[31]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4):1 436-1 445.
[32]李博,韩增林.沿海城市人地关系地域系统脆弱性研究——以大连市为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(10):1 722-1 728.
[33]程钰,任建兰,徐成龙.资源衰退型城市人地系统脆弱性评估——以山东枣庄市为例[J].经济地理,2015,35:(3):87-93.
[34]徐庆勇,黄玫,刘洪升,等.基于RS和GIS的珠江三角洲生态环境脆弱性综合评价[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(11):2 987-2 995.
[35]徐庆勇,黄玫,陆佩玲,等.基于RS与GIS的长江三角洲生态环境脆弱性综合评价[J].环境科学研究,2011,24(1):58-65.
[36]吴春生,黄翀,刘高焕,等.基于模糊层次分析法的黄河三角洲生态脆弱性评价[J].生态学报,2018,38(13):4 584-4 595.
[37]刘凯,任建兰,程钰,等.黄河三角洲地区社会脆弱性评价与影响因素[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):45-52.
[38]刘凯,任建兰,李雅楠.基于供需视角的黄河三角洲人地关系演变[J].经济地理,2018,38(6):28-34.