基于Logistic模型的间隙零门可靠性窗口分析
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摘要
零门间隙是爆炸间隙零门功能实现的关键,间隙太长或者太短都会导致零门功能失效,因此研究使得零门功能成功实现的间隙区间亦称为可靠性窗口,具有重要的实际意义.本文在固定装药密度和通道横截面积的条件下,基于爆炸间隙零门工作机理,将可靠性窗口的两个端点设为二维随机变量,建立了端点阈值的联合分布概率模型.为了分析二维随机变量之间的相关性,本文基于二维联合Logistic分布模型,结合得分统计量,研究了可靠性窗口两端点的相关性检验方法,并给出了间隙零门可靠性窗口的估计方法.文章最后结合间隙零门试验数据,验证了可靠性窗口端点阈值之间的相关系数与0无显著性差异,并基于验证结果给出了试验数据下间隙零门的可靠性窗口估计结果.
The length of the gap is the key to realize the function of the explosive gap null-gate. Too long or too short of the gap can cause the gap null gate failure. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the interval of the gap, that is, the reliability window, which enables the gap null-gate function to be successfully realized. With the assumptions that both the density of the explosive and the cross-sectional area of the explosive channel were constants, we established the joint distribution model by regarding the endpoints of the reliability window as two random variables. Based on the joint Logistic distribution model, the paper analyzed the correlation between the both random variables with the score statistic test and developed the method for estimating the reliability window. At the end of the paper, based on the experimental data, we verified that there is no significant difference between the correlation coefficient and0, and presented the estimation result of the reliability window.
The length of the gap is the key to realize the function of the explosive gap null-gate. Too long or too short of the gap can cause the gap null gate failure. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the interval of the gap, that is, the reliability window, which enables the gap null-gate function to be successfully realized. With the assumptions that both the density of the explosive and the cross-sectional area of the explosive channel were constants, we established the joint distribution model by regarding the endpoints of the reliability window as two random variables. Based on the joint Logistic distribution model, the paper analyzed the correlation between the both random variables with the score statistic test and developed the method for estimating the reliability window. At the end of the paper, based on the experimental data, we verified that there is no significant difference between the correlation coefficient and0, and presented the estimation result of the reliability window.
引文
[1]刘举鹏,张安蓉,张崇炜.爆炸逻辑网络自动设计工作平台[J].火工品,1994(3):1-6.Liu J P, Zhang A R, Zhang C W. Program design for ELC CAD[J]. Initiators&Pyrotechnics, 1994(3):1-6.
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[3]范军政,杜志明.爆炸网络技术的发展及引用[J].火工品,2003(4):39-41.Fan J Z, Du Z M. Development and application of explosive circuit technology[J]. Initiators&Pyrotechnics,2003(4):39-41.
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[9]温玉全,焦清介,李国新,等.刚性面同步起爆网络设计及同步时间分析[J].兵工学报,2001, 22(1):45-47.Wen Y Q, Jiao Q J, Li G X, et al. Structural design and time analysis of synchronous explosive circuit in a rigid surface[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2001, 22(1):45-47.
[10]龚柏林,卢芳云,李翔宇,等.爆炸逻辑间隙零门实验研究[J].国防科技大学学报,2009, 31(3):25-28.Gong B L, Lu F Y, Li X Y, et al. Experimental study on explosive logic gap null gate[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2009, 31(3):25-28.
[11]王典鹏,田玉斌,刘柳·冲击波感度临界隔板厚度的优化试验方法[J].兵工学报,2012, 33(9):1088-1094.Wang D P, Tian Y B, Liu L. A new estimation method for critical gap thickness[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2012,33(9):1088-1094.
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[14]吴克刚.一种基于间隙爆炸零门的爆炸逻辑元件研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2010, 30(3):91-98.Wu K G. Research on an explosive logic element based on gap null gate[J]. Journal of Projectiles, Rockets,Missiles and Guidance, 2010, 30(3):91-98.
[15]李燕华,李元,李晓刚,等.一种间隙弱化爆炸零门的仿真与试验[J].含能材料,2016, 24(10):1005-1010.Li Y H, Li Y, Li X G, et al. Numerical simulation and experimental study of weak gap explosive null gate[J].Chinese Journal of Energetic Matericals, 2016, 24(10):1005-1010.
[16]徐厚宝,周利钦,于海江.爆炸药间隙零门可靠性窗口分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(9):219-226.Xu H B, Zhou L Q, Yu H J. Relibility window analysis for explosive gap null-gate[J], Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2017, 47(9):219-226.
[17]张奇,胡蓝艺,王汪.基于Logit与SVM的银行业信用风险预誓模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(7):1784-1790.Zhang Q, Hu L Y, Wang J. Study on credit risk early warning based on Logit and SVM[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(7):1784-1790.
[18]胡毅,王珏,杨晓光.基于面板Logi七模型的银行客户贷款违约风险预警研究[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(7):1752-1759.Hu Y, Wang J, Yang X G. A study on early-warning of bank customer loan defaults based on panel Logit model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory Practice, 2015, 35(7):1752-1759.
[19]谢桂生,朱绍涛.基于Logistic模型的组织种群共生演化稳定性[J].晾工业大学学报,2016, 42(2):315-320..Xie G S, Zhu S T. Symbiosis evolution stability between organizational population based on Logistic model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 2016, 42(2):315-320.
[20]陈保家,陈雪峰,李兵,等.Logistic回归模型在机床)刀具可靠性评估中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2011,47(18):158-163.Chen B J, Chen X F, Li B, et al. Reliability estimation for cutting tool based on Logistic regression model[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2011, 47(18):158-163.
[21] Gumbel E J. Bivariate Logistic distributions[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1961, 56(294):335-349.
[22] Kiefer N M. Testing for dependence in multivariate probit models[J]. Biometrika, 1982, 69(1):161-166.
[23] Murphy A. Sore tests of normality in bivariate probit models[J]. Economics Letters, 2007(95):374-379.
[2]涂宏茂,孙志礼,钱云鹏,等.引信徽机电安全系统的可靠性分析与改进[J].兵工学报,2017, 38(4):664-672.Tu H M, Sun Z L, Qian Y P, et al. Reliability analysis and improvement of MEMS-based safety and arming device in fuze[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(4):664-672.
[3]范军政,杜志明.爆炸网络技术的发展及引用[J].火工品,2003(4):39-41.Fan J Z, Du Z M. Development and application of explosive circuit technology[J]. Initiators&Pyrotechnics,2003(4):39-41.
[4] Silvia D A. Explosive gate, diode and switch[P]. United States Patent(No. 3,430,564), 1969:1-6.
[5] Meyers W H. On the design of logic explosive circuits[C]//Proceedings of 12th Symposium on Explosives and Pyrotechnics, San Diego, California, USA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, University of California. 13-15,Mar, 1984:1-16.
[6]毛金生.爆炸逻辑网络技术非理想爆轰现象研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,1992.Mao J S. Study on no-ideal detonation phenomena of explosive logic network[D]. Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology, 1992.
[7]刘举鹏,陈福海.炸药中爆轰波拐角绕射现象研究[J].爆炸与冲击,1993,13(2):105-109.Liu J P,Chen F H. Studied on the detonation wave turning around a corner[J]. Explosion and Shock Waves,1993, 13(2):105-109.
[8]王树山.爆轰波非常规传播现象及其应用研究[D].北京:北京理工大学,1994.Wang S S. The phenomenon of non-conventional propagation detonation wave and its application[D]. Beijing:Beijing Institute of Technology, 1994.
[9]温玉全,焦清介,李国新,等.刚性面同步起爆网络设计及同步时间分析[J].兵工学报,2001, 22(1):45-47.Wen Y Q, Jiao Q J, Li G X, et al. Structural design and time analysis of synchronous explosive circuit in a rigid surface[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2001, 22(1):45-47.
[10]龚柏林,卢芳云,李翔宇,等.爆炸逻辑间隙零门实验研究[J].国防科技大学学报,2009, 31(3):25-28.Gong B L, Lu F Y, Li X Y, et al. Experimental study on explosive logic gap null gate[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2009, 31(3):25-28.
[11]王典鹏,田玉斌,刘柳·冲击波感度临界隔板厚度的优化试验方法[J].兵工学报,2012, 33(9):1088-1094.Wang D P, Tian Y B, Liu L. A new estimation method for critical gap thickness[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2012,33(9):1088-1094.
[12]焦清介,吉利国,蔡瑞娇.爆炸逻辑零门可靠性研究[J].兵工学报,1997, 18(2):116-120.Jiao Q J, Ji L G, Cai R J. Reliability study on the design of explosive logic null gate[J], Acta Armamentarii,1997, 18(2):116-120.
[13]温玉全,卢斌,焦清介.改进间隙式爆炸零门的设计及可靠性研究[J].火工品,2001(4):6-8.Wen Y Q, Lu B, Jiao Q J. The design of improving gap null gate and its reliability study[J]. Initiators S&Pyrotechnics, 2001(4):6-8.
[14]吴克刚.一种基于间隙爆炸零门的爆炸逻辑元件研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2010, 30(3):91-98.Wu K G. Research on an explosive logic element based on gap null gate[J]. Journal of Projectiles, Rockets,Missiles and Guidance, 2010, 30(3):91-98.
[15]李燕华,李元,李晓刚,等.一种间隙弱化爆炸零门的仿真与试验[J].含能材料,2016, 24(10):1005-1010.Li Y H, Li Y, Li X G, et al. Numerical simulation and experimental study of weak gap explosive null gate[J].Chinese Journal of Energetic Matericals, 2016, 24(10):1005-1010.
[16]徐厚宝,周利钦,于海江.爆炸药间隙零门可靠性窗口分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(9):219-226.Xu H B, Zhou L Q, Yu H J. Relibility window analysis for explosive gap null-gate[J], Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2017, 47(9):219-226.
[17]张奇,胡蓝艺,王汪.基于Logit与SVM的银行业信用风险预誓模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(7):1784-1790.Zhang Q, Hu L Y, Wang J. Study on credit risk early warning based on Logit and SVM[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2015, 35(7):1784-1790.
[18]胡毅,王珏,杨晓光.基于面板Logi七模型的银行客户贷款违约风险预警研究[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(7):1752-1759.Hu Y, Wang J, Yang X G. A study on early-warning of bank customer loan defaults based on panel Logit model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory Practice, 2015, 35(7):1752-1759.
[19]谢桂生,朱绍涛.基于Logistic模型的组织种群共生演化稳定性[J].晾工业大学学报,2016, 42(2):315-320..Xie G S, Zhu S T. Symbiosis evolution stability between organizational population based on Logistic model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 2016, 42(2):315-320.
[20]陈保家,陈雪峰,李兵,等.Logistic回归模型在机床)刀具可靠性评估中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2011,47(18):158-163.Chen B J, Chen X F, Li B, et al. Reliability estimation for cutting tool based on Logistic regression model[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2011, 47(18):158-163.
[21] Gumbel E J. Bivariate Logistic distributions[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1961, 56(294):335-349.
[22] Kiefer N M. Testing for dependence in multivariate probit models[J]. Biometrika, 1982, 69(1):161-166.
[23] Murphy A. Sore tests of normality in bivariate probit models[J]. Economics Letters, 2007(95):374-379.