南方电网覆冰监测系统算法误差分析及模型改进技术研究
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摘要
针对目前南方电网架空线路覆冰监测预警系统仍有诸多关键性问题待解决,如在系统核心计算方面参数选取较为简单,没有结合实际线路设计条件,从而造成覆冰预警系统覆冰模型不准确,不能直接为防冰管控工作提供有效决策依据的缺陷。本文首先对系统中现有耐张塔线路覆冰厚度模型计算误差进行分析研究,其次从线路设计角度出发,对其模型进行改进。研究表明:①系统中现有计算模型忽略了线路初始设计冰厚、垂直档距变化特征的影响,导线等效长度取值有待商榷;②通过改进的计算模型,对初始的拉力值进行修正,同时综合考虑设计冰厚、垂直档距、水平应力、导线状态方程等变化等特征,以贵州省毕节地区耐张塔线路四次线路覆冰过程为例,改进的模型能够将系统现有计算模型准确度由59. 8%提升至95. 1%,计算结果更加接近于真实值。能够为输电部门为防冰管控工作提供有效决策依据,以及减少人工观冰耗费大量的资源、时间。
At present,there are still many key problems to be solved in the monitoring and early warning system of overhead line icing in the South China Power Grid. For example,the selection of parameters in the core calculation of the system is relatively simple,without considering the actual line design conditions,which results in inaccurate icing model of the icing early warning system,and can not directly provide effective decision-making basis for ice prevention management and control work. Firstly,the calculation error of ice thickness model of existing tension tower lines in the system is analyzed and studied. Secondly,from the point of view of line design,the model is improved. The results show that:( 1) the existing calculation model neglects the influence of the variation characteristics of initial design ice thickness and vertical spacing,and the equivalent length of conductor remains to be discussed;( 2) through the improved calculation model,the initial tension value is revised,and the changes of design ice thickness,vertical spacing,horizontal stress and state equation of conductor are considered comprehensively,taking the icing process of the fourth transmission line of tension tower in bijie area of guizhou province as an example,the improved model can improve the accuracy of the existing calculation model from 59. 8% to 95. 1%,and the calculation results are closer to the true values. It can provide an effective decision-making basis for the power transmission department to provide anti-icing management and control work,and reduce the consumption of a large amount of resources and time for artificial observation of ice.
At present,there are still many key problems to be solved in the monitoring and early warning system of overhead line icing in the South China Power Grid. For example,the selection of parameters in the core calculation of the system is relatively simple,without considering the actual line design conditions,which results in inaccurate icing model of the icing early warning system,and can not directly provide effective decision-making basis for ice prevention management and control work. Firstly,the calculation error of ice thickness model of existing tension tower lines in the system is analyzed and studied. Secondly,from the point of view of line design,the model is improved. The results show that:( 1) the existing calculation model neglects the influence of the variation characteristics of initial design ice thickness and vertical spacing,and the equivalent length of conductor remains to be discussed;( 2) through the improved calculation model,the initial tension value is revised,and the changes of design ice thickness,vertical spacing,horizontal stress and state equation of conductor are considered comprehensively,taking the icing process of the fourth transmission line of tension tower in bijie area of guizhou province as an example,the improved model can improve the accuracy of the existing calculation model from 59. 8% to 95. 1%,and the calculation results are closer to the true values. It can provide an effective decision-making basis for the power transmission department to provide anti-icing management and control work,and reduce the consumption of a large amount of resources and time for artificial observation of ice.
引文
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[8]张乐,周步祥,王小红,等.导线覆冰监测系统的力学模型与预警功能优化[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2014,26(11):42-46.ZHANG Le,ZHOU Buxiang,WANG Xiaohong,et al. Mechanical model of transmission line icing monitoring systems and optimization of alarm function[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2014,26(11):42-46.
[9]王身丽,徐天勇,韩昊,等.基于全站仪二次开发的覆冰厚度测量与实现[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(09):47-50.WANG Shenli,XU Tianyong,HAN Hao,et al. The implementation of ice covered thickness measurement based on the secondary development of electronic total station[J]. Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2016,53(09):47-50.
[10]蒋兴良,韩兴波,胡玉耀,等.绝缘子湿增长动态覆冰模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(08):2496-2503.JIANG Xingliang,HAN Xingbo,HU Yuyao,et al. The study of dynamic wei-growth icing model of insulator[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(08):2496-2503.
[11]林刚,王波,彭辉,等.基于强泛化卷积神经网络的输电线路图像覆冰厚度辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(11):3393-3401.LIN Gang,WANG Bo,PENG Hui,et al. Identification of icing thickness of transmission line based on strongly generalized convolutional neural network[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(11):3393-3401.
[12]刘宏伟,陆佳政,赖旬阳,等.输电线路覆冰厚度短期多变量灰色预测模型研究[J].高电压技术,2015,41(10):3372-3377.LIU Hongwei,LU Jiazheng,LAI Xunyang,et al. Short-term multivariable grey model in predicting icing thickness on transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2015,41(10):3372-3377.
[13]姚陈果,张磊,李成祥,等.基于力学分析和弧垂测量的导线覆冰厚度测量方法[J].高电压技术,2013,39(05):1204-1209.YAO Chengguo,ZHANG Lei,LI Chengxiang,et al. Measurement method of conductor ice covered thickness based on analysis of mechanical and sag measurement[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(05):1204-1209.
[14] HUANG X B,LI H B,ZHU Y C. Short-term ice accretion forecasting model for transmission lines with modified time-series analysis by fireworks algorithm[J]. Iet Generation Transmission&Distribution,2018,12(05):1074-1080.
[15] MARSH O J,RACK W,GOLLEDGE N R,et al. Grounding-zone ice thickness from In SAR:inverse modelling of tidal elastic bending[J]. Journal of Glaciology,2014,60(221):526-536.
[16] BROWN L C,DUGUAY C R. A comparison of simulated and measured lake ice thickness using a Shallow Water Ice Profiler[J]. Hydrological Processes,2011,25(19):2932-2941.
[17]曹双和,陈百炼,赵立进,等.导线覆冰厚度线径订正系数的理论计算分析[J].电力大数据,2018(09):71-79.CAO Shuanghe,CHEN Bailian,ZHAO Lijin,et al. Heoretical calculation and analysis on diameter correction coefficients of the ice-thickness of conductor icing[J]. Power Systems and Big Data,2018(09):71-79.
[18]李昊,傅闯,刘旭,等.南方电网架空输电线路覆冰监测系统及其运行分析[J].陕西电力,2013,41(04):20-23.LI Hao,FU Chuang,LIU Xu,et al. Overhead transmission line ice monitoring system of china southern power grid&its operation analysis[J]. Shaanxi Electric Power,2013,41(04):20-23.
[19]司庆华,谢云云.极端覆冰时电线应力计算方法的研究[J].电力与能源,2017,38(03):223-226.SI Qinghua,XIE Yunyun. Calculation method of electric wire stress in extreme ice cover[J]. Power&Energy,2017,38(03):223-226.
[20]姚陈果,张磊,李成祥,等.基于力学分析和弧垂测量的导线覆冰厚度测量方法[J].高电压技术,2013,39(05):1204-1209.YAO Chengguo,ZHANG Lei,LI Chengxiang,et al. Measurement method of conductor ice covered thickness based on analysis of mechanical and sag measurement[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(05):1204-1209.
[21]杨滴,刘燕,王世蓉,等.输电线路覆冰监测的OPGW传感应用研究[J].电力大数据2018,20(04):7-11.YANG Di,LIU Yan,WANG Shirong,et al. Research on icing monitoring of OPGW transmission line[J]. Power Systems and Big Data. 2018,20(04):7-11.
[22]胡坤岐,张秋晗.应用Matlab软件对架空输电线路覆冰舞动故障的分析[J].内蒙古电力技术,2016,34(02):10-13.HU Kunqi,ZHANG Qiuhan. Icing galloping failure analysis of overhead transmission line by application of matlab software[J].Inner Mongolia Electric Power,2016,34(02):10-13.
[2]高凡,吴军,刘涤尘,等.考虑覆冰灾害的特高压电网差异化经济性评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2017,29(01):1-6.GAO Fan,WU Jun,LIU Dichen,et al. Differentiation economic assessment on UHV power system considering icing disaster[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2017,29(01):1-6.
[3]李立浧,阳林,郝艳捧.架空输电线路覆冰在线监测技术评述[J].电网技术,2012,36(02):237-243LI Licheng,YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng. Review of on-line monitoring of ice coating on overhead transmission line[J]. Power System Technology,2012,36(02):237-243.
[4]薛艺为,阳林,郝艳捧,等.输电线路悬式复合绝缘子雨凇与轻雾凇覆冰形态和覆冰过程对比研究[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(08):212-219.XUE Yiwei,YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,et al. A comparative study on icing morphology and process of glaze and light rime in suspension composite insulators on transmission lines[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(08):212-219.
[5]黄筱婷,戴栋,李昊,等.基于在线监测数据的输电线路覆冰形态研究[J].南方电网技术,2013,7(01):76-79.HUANG Xiaoting,DAI Dong,LI Hao,et al. The online monitoring data based research of transmission line icing form[J]. Southern Power System Technology,2013,7(01):76-79.
[6]陈金熠,范春菊,胡天强,等.考虑架空输电线路状态的线路覆冰监测系统的研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(15):93-98.CHEN Jinyi,FAN Chunju,HU Tianqiang,et al. Study on monitoring system of transmission line icing considering the state of overhead transmission lines[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(15):93-98.
[7]张炜,邬蓉蓉,覃炜.基于应变分析的光纤复合架空地线覆冰荷载监测[J].南方电网技术,2016,10(11):52-58.ZHANG Wei,WU Rongrong,QIN Wei. Icing load monitoring of OPGW based on strain analysis[J]. Southern Power System Technology,2016,10(11):52-58.
[8]张乐,周步祥,王小红,等.导线覆冰监测系统的力学模型与预警功能优化[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2014,26(11):42-46.ZHANG Le,ZHOU Buxiang,WANG Xiaohong,et al. Mechanical model of transmission line icing monitoring systems and optimization of alarm function[J]. Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2014,26(11):42-46.
[9]王身丽,徐天勇,韩昊,等.基于全站仪二次开发的覆冰厚度测量与实现[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(09):47-50.WANG Shenli,XU Tianyong,HAN Hao,et al. The implementation of ice covered thickness measurement based on the secondary development of electronic total station[J]. Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2016,53(09):47-50.
[10]蒋兴良,韩兴波,胡玉耀,等.绝缘子湿增长动态覆冰模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(08):2496-2503.JIANG Xingliang,HAN Xingbo,HU Yuyao,et al. The study of dynamic wei-growth icing model of insulator[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(08):2496-2503.
[11]林刚,王波,彭辉,等.基于强泛化卷积神经网络的输电线路图像覆冰厚度辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(11):3393-3401.LIN Gang,WANG Bo,PENG Hui,et al. Identification of icing thickness of transmission line based on strongly generalized convolutional neural network[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(11):3393-3401.
[12]刘宏伟,陆佳政,赖旬阳,等.输电线路覆冰厚度短期多变量灰色预测模型研究[J].高电压技术,2015,41(10):3372-3377.LIU Hongwei,LU Jiazheng,LAI Xunyang,et al. Short-term multivariable grey model in predicting icing thickness on transmission lines[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2015,41(10):3372-3377.
[13]姚陈果,张磊,李成祥,等.基于力学分析和弧垂测量的导线覆冰厚度测量方法[J].高电压技术,2013,39(05):1204-1209.YAO Chengguo,ZHANG Lei,LI Chengxiang,et al. Measurement method of conductor ice covered thickness based on analysis of mechanical and sag measurement[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(05):1204-1209.
[14] HUANG X B,LI H B,ZHU Y C. Short-term ice accretion forecasting model for transmission lines with modified time-series analysis by fireworks algorithm[J]. Iet Generation Transmission&Distribution,2018,12(05):1074-1080.
[15] MARSH O J,RACK W,GOLLEDGE N R,et al. Grounding-zone ice thickness from In SAR:inverse modelling of tidal elastic bending[J]. Journal of Glaciology,2014,60(221):526-536.
[16] BROWN L C,DUGUAY C R. A comparison of simulated and measured lake ice thickness using a Shallow Water Ice Profiler[J]. Hydrological Processes,2011,25(19):2932-2941.
[17]曹双和,陈百炼,赵立进,等.导线覆冰厚度线径订正系数的理论计算分析[J].电力大数据,2018(09):71-79.CAO Shuanghe,CHEN Bailian,ZHAO Lijin,et al. Heoretical calculation and analysis on diameter correction coefficients of the ice-thickness of conductor icing[J]. Power Systems and Big Data,2018(09):71-79.
[18]李昊,傅闯,刘旭,等.南方电网架空输电线路覆冰监测系统及其运行分析[J].陕西电力,2013,41(04):20-23.LI Hao,FU Chuang,LIU Xu,et al. Overhead transmission line ice monitoring system of china southern power grid&its operation analysis[J]. Shaanxi Electric Power,2013,41(04):20-23.
[19]司庆华,谢云云.极端覆冰时电线应力计算方法的研究[J].电力与能源,2017,38(03):223-226.SI Qinghua,XIE Yunyun. Calculation method of electric wire stress in extreme ice cover[J]. Power&Energy,2017,38(03):223-226.
[20]姚陈果,张磊,李成祥,等.基于力学分析和弧垂测量的导线覆冰厚度测量方法[J].高电压技术,2013,39(05):1204-1209.YAO Chengguo,ZHANG Lei,LI Chengxiang,et al. Measurement method of conductor ice covered thickness based on analysis of mechanical and sag measurement[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(05):1204-1209.
[21]杨滴,刘燕,王世蓉,等.输电线路覆冰监测的OPGW传感应用研究[J].电力大数据2018,20(04):7-11.YANG Di,LIU Yan,WANG Shirong,et al. Research on icing monitoring of OPGW transmission line[J]. Power Systems and Big Data. 2018,20(04):7-11.
[22]胡坤岐,张秋晗.应用Matlab软件对架空输电线路覆冰舞动故障的分析[J].内蒙古电力技术,2016,34(02):10-13.HU Kunqi,ZHANG Qiuhan. Icing galloping failure analysis of overhead transmission line by application of matlab software[J].Inner Mongolia Electric Power,2016,34(02):10-13.