经济周期背景下的不确定性与跨国并购:对中国企业的实证分析
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摘要
本文基于2001—2016年中国企业对91个国家(地区)的跨国并购数据,就经济周期、经济政策不确定性对跨国并购的影响进行实证检验。结果表明:中国企业具有显著"逆周期"并购特征,经济政策不确定性与并购正相关,并且在国有企业样本中表现得更为明显;并购的"逆周期"特征在2008年金融危机后表现尤为明显;进一步检验发现,双边经济政策不确定性差异和双边市场增长潜力差距均正向影响企业跨国并购。因此,对中国"逆周期"跨国并购的理解需要把握双边经济政策不确定性的具体内涵。
Based on the data of cross-border mergers and acquisitions( M&A) in 91 countries( regions) carried out by Chinese enterprises from 2001 to 2016,this study empirically examined the impact of economic cycle and economic policy uncertainty on crossborder M&A. The results show that Chinese enterprises have significant"counter-cyclical"M&A characteristics,and that economic policy uncertainty is positively related to M&A,especially in the sample of state-owned enterprises. The "counter-cyclical"characteristics of M&A are particularly obvious after the 2008 financial crisis. Further tests find that the differences in bilateral economic policy uncertainty and the gap of bilateral market growth potential have a positive impact on cross-border M&A. Therefore,to understand China's counter-cyclical cross-border M&A,the specific connotation of bilateral economic policy uncertainty needs to be taken into account.
Based on the data of cross-border mergers and acquisitions( M&A) in 91 countries( regions) carried out by Chinese enterprises from 2001 to 2016,this study empirically examined the impact of economic cycle and economic policy uncertainty on crossborder M&A. The results show that Chinese enterprises have significant"counter-cyclical"M&A characteristics,and that economic policy uncertainty is positively related to M&A,especially in the sample of state-owned enterprises. The "counter-cyclical"characteristics of M&A are particularly obvious after the 2008 financial crisis. Further tests find that the differences in bilateral economic policy uncertainty and the gap of bilateral market growth potential have a positive impact on cross-border M&A. Therefore,to understand China's counter-cyclical cross-border M&A,the specific connotation of bilateral economic policy uncertainty needs to be taken into account.
引文
[1]陈德球,陈运森.政府治理、终极产权与公司投资同步性[J].管理评论,2013(25):139-148.
[2]陈冬,孔墨奇,王建红.投我以桃,报之以李:经济周期与国企避税[J].管理世界,2016(5):46-63
[3]杜晓君,杨勃,齐朝顺,等.外来者劣势的克服机制:组织身份变革———基于联想和中远的探索性案例研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(12):130-145.
[4]贾倩,孔详,孙铮.政策不确定性对企业投资行为———基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验[J].财经研究,2013(39):81-91.
[5]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资———东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[6]金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与管理,2014(2):17-26.
[7]李凤羽,杨墨竹.政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗———基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[8]裴长洪,林江.跨境并购是我国利用外资的新形势[J].中国工业经济,2007(1):29-36.
[9]裴长洪,郑文.国家特定优势:国际投资理论的补充解释[J].经济研究,2011(11):21—35.
[10]齐鹰飞,李东阳.固定资产投资波动与经济周期波动“放大效应”的实证分析[J].财政研究,2014(9):48-51.
[11]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为的研究[J].世界经济,2017(2):27-51.
[12]申慧慧,于鹏,吴联生.国有股权、环境不确定性与投资效率[J].经济研究,2012(7):113-126.
[13]王倩,刘睨.我国经济周期对投资策略的影响研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2015(3):84-91+173.
[14]吴先明,苏志文.将跨国并购作为技术追赶的杠杆:动态能力视角[J].管理世界,2014(4):146-164.
[15]谢红军,蒋殿春.竞争优势、资产价格与中国海外并购[J].金融研究,2017(1):83-98.
[16]杨娇辉,王伟,谭娜.破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜[J].世界经济,2016,39(11):3-27.
[17]张宏,王建.东道国区位因素与中国OFDI关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2009(6):151-160.
[18]张小蒂,王焕祥.论跨国公司FDI中基于并购的要素交易整合优势[J].世界经济,2004(7):44-50.
[19]AGUIAR,M,G GOPINATH. Firm-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(3):439-452.
[20]BAKER,S R,N BLOOM,S J. DAVIS. Measure Economic Policy Uncertainty[R]. Working Paper,Stanford University,University of Chicago,2013.
[21]BATES T W,KAHLE K M,STULZ R M. Why Do U. S Firms Hold So Such More Cash than They Used to[J].Journal of Finance,2009(5):1985-2021.
[22]BLOOM,N,S BOND,J V REENEN. Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics[J]. Review of Economics Studies,2007,74(2):391-415.
[23]FRANKEL,JEFFREY,SHANG-JIN WEI. ASEAN in a Regional Perspective[R]. UC Berkeley Working Paper,1996(C):96-074.
[24]FROOT K,J STEING. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991(106):1191-1218.
[25]GILROY B M,E LUKAS. The Choice between Greenfield Investment and Cross-border Acquisition:A Real Option Approach[J]. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(3):447-465.
[26]HAYASHI,F,E PRESCOTT. The 1990s in Japan:A Lost Decade[J]. Review of Economic Dynamics,2002(5):206-235.
[27]KRUGMAN P.“Firm-Sale FDI”in Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies:Theory,Evidence and Controversies[M]. Eds. by Edwards S,2000:43-58.
[28]LEAHY,J,T WHITED. The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment:Some Stylized Facts[J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking,1996,28(1):64-83.
[29]LEE,CHANG-SOO. Korea FDI Outflow:Choice of Locations and Effect on Trade[R]. KIEP Working Paper,2002:2-7.
[30]YANG X,STOLTENBERG C D. A Review of Institutional Influences on the Rise of Made in China Multinationals[J]. Int. J. Emerg. Mark,2014,20(9),162-180.
(1)http://www. policyuncertainty. com/index. html.
(2)实际有效汇率水平是IMF公布的,以双边贸易比重为权数,经消费价格指数调整的实际有效汇率指数以2000年为基期(100),指数上升代表本币升值,指数下降则为贬值。
(1)ggdp与difggdp不会同时出现在回归中,wgi在基本检验后被剔除,最大限度降低多重共线性问题。
(1)中国在2008年实施的“四万亿”宏观经济调控计划包含了大量积极经济政策。
(1)考虑到中国政府于2008年实施“4万亿”经济刺激计划对企业投资决策产生了重大影响,因此以2008年为分界点划分样本。
[2]陈冬,孔墨奇,王建红.投我以桃,报之以李:经济周期与国企避税[J].管理世界,2016(5):46-63
[3]杜晓君,杨勃,齐朝顺,等.外来者劣势的克服机制:组织身份变革———基于联想和中远的探索性案例研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(12):130-145.
[4]贾倩,孔详,孙铮.政策不确定性对企业投资行为———基于省级地方官员变更的实证检验[J].财经研究,2013(39):81-91.
[5]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资———东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[6]金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与管理,2014(2):17-26.
[7]李凤羽,杨墨竹.政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗———基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[8]裴长洪,林江.跨境并购是我国利用外资的新形势[J].中国工业经济,2007(1):29-36.
[9]裴长洪,郑文.国家特定优势:国际投资理论的补充解释[J].经济研究,2011(11):21—35.
[10]齐鹰飞,李东阳.固定资产投资波动与经济周期波动“放大效应”的实证分析[J].财政研究,2014(9):48-51.
[11]饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为的研究[J].世界经济,2017(2):27-51.
[12]申慧慧,于鹏,吴联生.国有股权、环境不确定性与投资效率[J].经济研究,2012(7):113-126.
[13]王倩,刘睨.我国经济周期对投资策略的影响研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2015(3):84-91+173.
[14]吴先明,苏志文.将跨国并购作为技术追赶的杠杆:动态能力视角[J].管理世界,2014(4):146-164.
[15]谢红军,蒋殿春.竞争优势、资产价格与中国海外并购[J].金融研究,2017(1):83-98.
[16]杨娇辉,王伟,谭娜.破解中国对外直接投资区位分布的“制度风险偏好”之谜[J].世界经济,2016,39(11):3-27.
[17]张宏,王建.东道国区位因素与中国OFDI关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2009(6):151-160.
[18]张小蒂,王焕祥.论跨国公司FDI中基于并购的要素交易整合优势[J].世界经济,2004(7):44-50.
[19]AGUIAR,M,G GOPINATH. Firm-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(3):439-452.
[20]BAKER,S R,N BLOOM,S J. DAVIS. Measure Economic Policy Uncertainty[R]. Working Paper,Stanford University,University of Chicago,2013.
[21]BATES T W,KAHLE K M,STULZ R M. Why Do U. S Firms Hold So Such More Cash than They Used to[J].Journal of Finance,2009(5):1985-2021.
[22]BLOOM,N,S BOND,J V REENEN. Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics[J]. Review of Economics Studies,2007,74(2):391-415.
[23]FRANKEL,JEFFREY,SHANG-JIN WEI. ASEAN in a Regional Perspective[R]. UC Berkeley Working Paper,1996(C):96-074.
[24]FROOT K,J STEING. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991(106):1191-1218.
[25]GILROY B M,E LUKAS. The Choice between Greenfield Investment and Cross-border Acquisition:A Real Option Approach[J]. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(3):447-465.
[26]HAYASHI,F,E PRESCOTT. The 1990s in Japan:A Lost Decade[J]. Review of Economic Dynamics,2002(5):206-235.
[27]KRUGMAN P.“Firm-Sale FDI”in Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies:Theory,Evidence and Controversies[M]. Eds. by Edwards S,2000:43-58.
[28]LEAHY,J,T WHITED. The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment:Some Stylized Facts[J]. Journal of Money Credit and Banking,1996,28(1):64-83.
[29]LEE,CHANG-SOO. Korea FDI Outflow:Choice of Locations and Effect on Trade[R]. KIEP Working Paper,2002:2-7.
[30]YANG X,STOLTENBERG C D. A Review of Institutional Influences on the Rise of Made in China Multinationals[J]. Int. J. Emerg. Mark,2014,20(9),162-180.
(1)http://www. policyuncertainty. com/index. html.
(2)实际有效汇率水平是IMF公布的,以双边贸易比重为权数,经消费价格指数调整的实际有效汇率指数以2000年为基期(100),指数上升代表本币升值,指数下降则为贬值。
(1)ggdp与difggdp不会同时出现在回归中,wgi在基本检验后被剔除,最大限度降低多重共线性问题。
(1)中国在2008年实施的“四万亿”宏观经济调控计划包含了大量积极经济政策。
(1)考虑到中国政府于2008年实施“4万亿”经济刺激计划对企业投资决策产生了重大影响,因此以2008年为分界点划分样本。