湖北省粮食生产气象灾害风险评价与区域划分
|
摘要
气象灾害影响粮食生产安全。粮食生产气象风险评估与风险区域划分是开展粮食气象灾害风险管理的科学基础。文章采取HP滤波方法将湖北省粮食产量分解成为粮食的趋势产量与气象产量,利用粮食产量的变异系数、歉年减产率、灾年风险概率与综合气象风险指标对湖北省粮食气象风险进行评估与区域划分。
Meteorological disasters affect the safety on grain production. Meteorological risk assessment of food production and risk area partition are the scientific basis of risk management of food meteorological disasters. This paper decomposes the grain yield in Hubei Province into the trend grain yield and meteorological grain yield by using the HP filtering method. The paper also assesses and regionalizes the meteorological risk of grain yield in Hubei Province by using the variation coefficient of grain yield, yield reduction rate in lean years, risk probability of disastrous years and comprehensive meteorological risk index.
Meteorological disasters affect the safety on grain production. Meteorological risk assessment of food production and risk area partition are the scientific basis of risk management of food meteorological disasters. This paper decomposes the grain yield in Hubei Province into the trend grain yield and meteorological grain yield by using the HP filtering method. The paper also assesses and regionalizes the meteorological risk of grain yield in Hubei Province by using the variation coefficient of grain yield, yield reduction rate in lean years, risk probability of disastrous years and comprehensive meteorological risk index.
引文
[1]王荣,孙鹏,凡莉莉.安徽省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与评价[J].广东水利水电,2017,(1).
[2]段兴武,谢云,刘刚等.黑龙江省粮食生产对气候变化影响的脆弱性分析[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1).
[3]张星,张春桂,吴菊薪.农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(11).
[4]韩语轩,王莉雯.黑龙江省水稻产量风险分布及区划[J].安徽农业科学,2016,(4).
[5]吴绍洪,潘韬,刘燕华等.中国综合气候变化风险区划[J].地理学报,2017,72(1).
[6]程琨,潘根兴,邹建文等.1949-2006年间中国粮食生产的气候变化影响风险评价[J].南京农业大学学报,2011,34(3).
[7]张峭,王克.我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(3).
[8]章国材.气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[9]周兆基,王倩.全国农业气象灾害的评估与区划[J].湖北农业科学,2014,(10).
[10]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(6).
[11]徐磊,张峭.中国粮食主产区粮食生产风险度量与分析[J].统计与决策,2011,(21).
[12]薛昌颖,霍治国,李世奎等.北方冬小麦产量灾损风险类型的地理分布[J].应用生态学报,2005,16(4).
[2]段兴武,谢云,刘刚等.黑龙江省粮食生产对气候变化影响的脆弱性分析[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1).
[3]张星,张春桂,吴菊薪.农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究[J].中国农学通报,2008,24(11).
[4]韩语轩,王莉雯.黑龙江省水稻产量风险分布及区划[J].安徽农业科学,2016,(4).
[5]吴绍洪,潘韬,刘燕华等.中国综合气候变化风险区划[J].地理学报,2017,72(1).
[6]程琨,潘根兴,邹建文等.1949-2006年间中国粮食生产的气候变化影响风险评价[J].南京农业大学学报,2011,34(3).
[7]张峭,王克.我国农业自然灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(3).
[8]章国材.气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[9]周兆基,王倩.全国农业气象灾害的评估与区划[J].湖北农业科学,2014,(10).
[10]房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(6).
[11]徐磊,张峭.中国粮食主产区粮食生产风险度量与分析[J].统计与决策,2011,(21).
[12]薛昌颖,霍治国,李世奎等.北方冬小麦产量灾损风险类型的地理分布[J].应用生态学报,2005,16(4).