资产规模、业务结构与银行绩效水平——基于“一带一路”中国及沿线国家银行面板数据
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摘要
以"一带一路"倡议下的中国及沿线国家银行资产规模扩张及非利息业务拓展为视角,从反映银行绩效水平的盈利和风险两个维度出发,发现"一带一路"区域内商业银行的资产规模与业务结构具有正向交互效应,二者对银行盈利能力及风险承担具有显著非线性协同影响。本文基于三维拟合曲面及边际分析法得出银行从非利息业务获得绩效水平提升须达到门槛规模,小型商业银行过度经营非利息业务反而降低银行的绩效水平,只有规模较大的银行提高非利息收入占比才能获益,但不能无限扩大规模,存在与非利息业务相匹配的最优资产规模-业务结构组合;因此,银行自身应合理调整规模与业务,强化风险意识;同时,"一带一路"沿线国家应建立区域性金融集群,优化资产规模-业务结构组合,提升银行业整体核心竞争力。
Based on profit and risk that reflecting bank performance,from the perspective of bank asset expansion and non-interest business development in China and those countries along the "Belt and Road",the paper reveals that: firstly,there is interaction effect between asset and business structure,both of them have significant nonlinear co-effect on bank profitability and risk taking. Secondly,three-dimensional fitting surface and marginal analysis show that bank can only rise the level of performance on the condition that it achieves the threshold of assets,banks with small scale would decrease the performance when operating excessive non-interest business,it's only profitable for banks with large scale extending non-interest business,but they cannot expand the scale unlimited,there is the optimal asset size-business structure that matches the non-interest business. Therefore,banks should reasonably adjust asset and business,strengthen risk awareness,build regional financial cluster and optimize the structure between asset and business types in those countries along the "Belt and Road"to enhance competitiveness of banks.
Based on profit and risk that reflecting bank performance,from the perspective of bank asset expansion and non-interest business development in China and those countries along the "Belt and Road",the paper reveals that: firstly,there is interaction effect between asset and business structure,both of them have significant nonlinear co-effect on bank profitability and risk taking. Secondly,three-dimensional fitting surface and marginal analysis show that bank can only rise the level of performance on the condition that it achieves the threshold of assets,banks with small scale would decrease the performance when operating excessive non-interest business,it's only profitable for banks with large scale extending non-interest business,but they cannot expand the scale unlimited,there is the optimal asset size-business structure that matches the non-interest business. Therefore,banks should reasonably adjust asset and business,strengthen risk awareness,build regional financial cluster and optimize the structure between asset and business types in those countries along the "Belt and Road"to enhance competitiveness of banks.
引文
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[2] BOYD J H,HEITZ A. The social costs and benefits of too-big-tofail banks:a“bounding”exercise[J]. Journal of Banking&Finance,2016,68(7):251.
[3] BERGER A N,HANWECK G A,HUMPHREY D B. Competitive viability in banking Scale,scope,and product mixeconomies[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2006,20(3):501.
[4] HAAN J,POGHOSYAN T. Size and earnings volatility of US bank holdingcompanies[J]. Journal of Banking&Finance,2012,36(11):3008.
[5]王聪,邹朋飞.中国商业银行规模经济与范围经济的实证分析[J].中国工业经济,2003(10):21.
[6]王键,窦育民.中国商业银行的成本非效率、规模经济及技术进步(1994—2010):基于随机前沿对数成本函数方法的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2013,35(3):34.
[7]张宗益,汪宇.非利息收入和银行规模对其风险的影响:基于中国16家上市银行的实证分析[J].技术经济,2014,33(6):112.
[8] UPPAL R K. Stability in Bank income through fee-based activities[J]. Information Management&Business Review,2010,1(1):40.
[9]王曼舒,刘晓芳.商业银行收入结构对盈利能力的影响研究:基于中国14家上市银行面板数据的分析[J].南开管理评论,2013,16(2):143.
[10] DEYOUNG R,RICE T. Noninterest income and financial performance at U. S. commercial banks[J]. Financial Review,2010,39(1):101.
[11] GULAMHUSSEN M A,PINHEIRO C,POZZOLO A F. International diversification and risk of multinational banks:evidence from the pre-crisis period[J]. Journal of Financial Stability,2014,13(1):30.
[12] CASU B,DONTIS-CHARITOS P,STAIKOURAS S,et al. Diversification,size and risk:the case of bank acquisitions of nonbank financial Firms[J]. European Financial Management,2016,22(2):235.
[13]周开国,李琳.中国商业银行收入结构多元化对银行风险的影响[J].国际金融研究,2011,(5):57.
[14]张晓玫,毛亚琪.我国上市商业银行系统性风险与非利息收入研究:基于LRMES方法的创新探讨[J].国际金融研究,2014,331(11):23.
[15]黄永兴,夏青.非利息收入改善中国城市商业银行绩效了吗?[J].商业研究,2016(10):81.
[16]李翔,常灿.非利息业务会提升银行的绩效吗:基于PSTR模型的非线性影响实证检验[J].预测,2014,33(4):48.
[17]田世海,王南曦.商业银行小微企业信贷业务操作风险评估研究[J].科技与管理,2016,18(6):67.
[18] NOULAS A G,RAY S C,MILLER S M. Returns to scale and input substitution for large U. S. Banks[J]. Journal of Money Credit&Banking,1990,22(1):94.
[19] CHIORAZZO V,MILANI C,SALVINI F. Income diversification and bank performance:evidence from Italian banks[J]. Journal of Financial Services Research,2008,33(3):181.
[20]魏成龙,刘建莉.我国商业银行的多元化经营分析[J].中国工业经济,2007(12):85.
[21]黄隽,章艳红.商业银行的风险:规模和非利息收入:以美国为例[J].金融研究,2010(6):75.
[22]李志辉,李梦雨.我国商业银行多元化经营与绩效的关系:基于50家商业银行2005—2012年的面板数据分析[J].南开经济研究,2014,(1):74.
[23] DE NICOLO G. Size,charter value and risk in banking:an international perspective[J]. International Finance Discussion Papers,2001,(5):197.
[24] DIETRICH D,VOLLMER U. International banking and liquidity allocation[J]. Journal of Financial Services Research,2010,37(1):45.