中国与“一带一路”沿线国家文化贸易潜力及影响因素:基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究
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摘要
文章以2011~2015年中国对"一带一路"沿线64个国家的文化产品出口数据为基础,利用随机前沿引力模型实证分析影响中国文化产品出口的因素,测算了中国与主要伙伴国及地区的文化产品出口潜力,并量化评估了人为因素对中国文化产品出口效率的影响。实证结果表明,经济规模、人口规模等因素对文化贸易发展具有促进作用,而地理距离、文化距离等因素对文化贸易发展有阻碍作用。关税、自由贸易协定安排、进口清关时间等人为因素构成了影响中国文化出口效率的重要因素。中国与"一带一路"沿线国家具有较大的文化贸易潜力,这种潜力在不同国家和地区之间呈现出较大的不均衡性,潜力最大的国家是老挝,最大的区域是中东欧地区。
The paper investigates the main determinants of China's cultural good export with the stochastic frontier gravity model using cultural good export panel data between China and 64 Countries along " the Belt and Road" from 2011 to 2015.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper calculates the bilateral export potential between China and its 64 partners along " the Belt and Road ",and analyzes the quantitative impact of artificial factors on China's cultural export efficiency.The empirical results show China's cultural export is positively influenced by the scale of economy and population size,and negatively influenced by the geographical distance and cultural distance.Besides,artificial factors such as tariff,import clearance time and free trade agreements are the important factors which determine China's cultural export efficiency.Although China has great cultural trade potential with countries along " the Belt and Road",there are still differences existing across these countries and regions.Laos is the largest country which has the greatest prospect,while Central and Eastern Europe is the largest region.
The paper investigates the main determinants of China's cultural good export with the stochastic frontier gravity model using cultural good export panel data between China and 64 Countries along " the Belt and Road" from 2011 to 2015.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper calculates the bilateral export potential between China and its 64 partners along " the Belt and Road ",and analyzes the quantitative impact of artificial factors on China's cultural export efficiency.The empirical results show China's cultural export is positively influenced by the scale of economy and population size,and negatively influenced by the geographical distance and cultural distance.Besides,artificial factors such as tariff,import clearance time and free trade agreements are the important factors which determine China's cultural export efficiency.Although China has great cultural trade potential with countries along " the Belt and Road",there are still differences existing across these countries and regions.Laos is the largest country which has the greatest prospect,while Central and Eastern Europe is the largest region.
引文
[1]Meeusen W.,Van Den Broeck J..Efficiency Estimation From Cobb-Douglas Production Function Composed Error[J].International Economic Review,1977,18(2):435-444.
[2]Battese G.E.,Coelli T.J..Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:with Application to Paddy Farmers in India[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992,3:153-169.
[3]綦建红,李丽,杨丽.中国OFDI的区位选择:基于文化距离的门槛效应与检验[J].国际贸易问题,2012(12).
[4]秦淑娟,李邦君.“一带一路”下的上海对外文化贸易发展新机遇及路径研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2016(4).
[5]花建.“一带一路”战略下增强我国对外文化贸易新优势的思考[J].中共浙江省委党校学报,2015(4).
[6]李嘉珊,任爽.“一带一路”战略背景下海外文化市场有效开拓的贸易路径[J].国际贸易,2016(2).
[7]魏简康凯,张建.“一带一路”倡议下中国文化产品出口的法制思考[J].国际展望,2017(1).
[8]曲如晓,韩丽丽.中国文化商品贸易影响因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(11).
[9]王洪涛.中国文化产品出口贸易成本的测度与影响因素分析—基于中国文化贸易出口面板数据的实证检验[J].当代财经,2014(10).
[10]李世杰,邓茂杰,刘殿国.贸易引力、社会嵌入与文化产品出口—来自中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的经验分析[J].广东财经大学学报,2017(4).
[11]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素—基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(10).
[12]张燕,高志刚.基于随机前沿引力模型的中澳双边贸易效率及潜力研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015(12).
(1)本文文化产品的范围来自于2011年联合国科教文组织发布的《2009年联合国科教文组织文化统计框架》,文化产品包括六大类:文化和自然遗产、表演和节庆产品、视觉艺术品和手工艺品、出版物、视听和交互媒体以及设计类产品。文化产品贸易数据来自联合国商品贸易数据库(UN Comtrade Database),以中国为报告方的数据为准,采用以HS六位数编码加总的方法获得并整理。
[2]Battese G.E.,Coelli T.J..Frontier Production Functions,Technical Efficiency and Panel Data:with Application to Paddy Farmers in India[J].Journal of Productivity Analysis,1992,3:153-169.
[3]綦建红,李丽,杨丽.中国OFDI的区位选择:基于文化距离的门槛效应与检验[J].国际贸易问题,2012(12).
[4]秦淑娟,李邦君.“一带一路”下的上海对外文化贸易发展新机遇及路径研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2016(4).
[5]花建.“一带一路”战略下增强我国对外文化贸易新优势的思考[J].中共浙江省委党校学报,2015(4).
[6]李嘉珊,任爽.“一带一路”战略背景下海外文化市场有效开拓的贸易路径[J].国际贸易,2016(2).
[7]魏简康凯,张建.“一带一路”倡议下中国文化产品出口的法制思考[J].国际展望,2017(1).
[8]曲如晓,韩丽丽.中国文化商品贸易影响因素的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(11).
[9]王洪涛.中国文化产品出口贸易成本的测度与影响因素分析—基于中国文化贸易出口面板数据的实证检验[J].当代财经,2014(10).
[10]李世杰,邓茂杰,刘殿国.贸易引力、社会嵌入与文化产品出口—来自中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的经验分析[J].广东财经大学学报,2017(4).
[11]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素—基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(10).
[12]张燕,高志刚.基于随机前沿引力模型的中澳双边贸易效率及潜力研究[J].国际经贸探索,2015(12).
(1)本文文化产品的范围来自于2011年联合国科教文组织发布的《2009年联合国科教文组织文化统计框架》,文化产品包括六大类:文化和自然遗产、表演和节庆产品、视觉艺术品和手工艺品、出版物、视听和交互媒体以及设计类产品。文化产品贸易数据来自联合国商品贸易数据库(UN Comtrade Database),以中国为报告方的数据为准,采用以HS六位数编码加总的方法获得并整理。