贸易保护对全球投资与经济增长的影响
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摘要
本文在全球治理模型的基础上,模拟分析美国以及世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税后对经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,美国有针对性地增加产品关税对美国经济增长并不有利,其贸易保护政策可能难以持续,而如果世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税,将使得印度以及低收入发展中国家的经济增长受到较大负面影响。经济的发展受到需求推动和生产技术推动,主导贸易保护只会进一步加剧矛盾,世界经济的发展需要各个国家和地区的共同努力和协同促进。
Based on the global governance model,this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the United States and other major countries and regions on the economic growth after both the imports and exports tariffs are raised. Simulation results show that the United States targeted to increase product tariffs on the economic growth is not beneficial,and its trade protection policy may be difficult to sustain. Besides,if all the major countries and regions in the world raise their tariffs on imports and exports,the economic growth in India and other low-income developing countries will be greatly adversely affected. Since economic development is driven by demand and production technology,leading trade protection will only further aggravate the contradictions. Therefore,the development of the world economy requires the joint efforts and collaboration of all countries and regions in the world.
Based on the global governance model,this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the United States and other major countries and regions on the economic growth after both the imports and exports tariffs are raised. Simulation results show that the United States targeted to increase product tariffs on the economic growth is not beneficial,and its trade protection policy may be difficult to sustain. Besides,if all the major countries and regions in the world raise their tariffs on imports and exports,the economic growth in India and other low-income developing countries will be greatly adversely affected. Since economic development is driven by demand and production technology,leading trade protection will only further aggravate the contradictions. Therefore,the development of the world economy requires the joint efforts and collaboration of all countries and regions in the world.
引文
[1]新华网.奥巴马:TPP协议将使美国比中国更具优势[EB/OL].(2016-02-04)[2017-12-08].http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-02/04/c_128702247.htm.
[2]新华网.特朗普正式宣布美国退出TPP[EB/OL].(2017-01-24)[2017-12-08].http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-01/24/c_129460127.htm.
[3]新华网.美国正式对中国发起“301调查”[EB/OL].(2017-08-19)[2017-12-08].http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2017-08/19/c_1121508900.htm.
[4]VINER J.The customs union issue[M].Washington D C:Carnegie Endomwent for International Peace,1950.
[5]KRISHNA P,BHAGWATI J.Necessarily welfare-enhancing customs unions with industrialization constraints:the Cooper-Massell-Johnson-Bhagwati conjecture[J].Japan and the World Economy,1997,9(4):441-446.
[6]DECALUWE B,SAVARD L,THORBECKE E.General equilibrium approach for poverty analysis:with an application to Cameroon[J].African Development Review,2005,17(2):213-243.
[7]FUGAZZA M,MAUR J C.Non-tariff barriers in CGE models:how useful for policy?[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2008,30(3):475-490.
[8]ACHARYA S,HOLSCHER J,PERUGINI C.Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal:a CGE analysis[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29(6):2543-2557.
[9]KAWASAKI K.The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2015,39(C):19-30.
[10]翟凡,李善同,王直.关税减让、国内税替代及其收入分配效应[J].经济研究,1996(12):41-50.
[11]周曙东,胡冰川,崔奇峰.多哈回合农产品关税减让谈判与中国的谈判方案选择——基于CGE模型的视角[J].中国农村经济,2006(9):4-12.
[12]彭高群.基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的几种东亚自由贸易区形式的效应比较研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2009.
[13]武拉平.贸易自由化与减贫:基于中国和东盟国家的实证研究[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011.
[14]张应武,李世杰,朱亭瑜.CEPA促进了中国内地对香港的货物贸易吗?[J].经济与管理研究,2015(6):16-21.
[15]高健,邓茂杰.中国双边贸易流量影响因素探究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016(2):77-82.
[16]丛晓男,王铮.中韩FTA关税减免对东亚主要经济体影响评价——基于自主开发的多区域CGE[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016(5):144-151.
[17]赵亮.“自贸区驱动”能否驱动中国经济增长?——基于贸易福利视角的理论机制与实证论证[J].经济与管理研究,2017(4):16-24.
[18]陈继勇,卢世杰.“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易竞争性测度及影响因素[J].经济与管理研究,2017(11):3-14.
[19]阙登峰,肖汉雄,卓丽洪,杨丹辉.TPP、亚太区域价值链重构及对中国的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2017(1):16-24
[20]顾高翔,王铮.国际资本流动模式及其国际经济影响模拟研究[J].财经研究,2015(11):58-70.
[21]胡敏,王铮,顾高翔.人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析[J].技术经济,2016(11):113-121.
[22]ANTRAS P,CABALLERO R J.Trade and capital flows:a financial frictions perspective[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009,117(4):701-744.
[23]JIN K.Industrial structure and capital flows[J].The American Economic Review,2012,102(5):2111-2146.
(1)具体数据来源于《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook,October 2016)。
[2]新华网.特朗普正式宣布美国退出TPP[EB/OL].(2017-01-24)[2017-12-08].http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-01/24/c_129460127.htm.
[3]新华网.美国正式对中国发起“301调查”[EB/OL].(2017-08-19)[2017-12-08].http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2017-08/19/c_1121508900.htm.
[4]VINER J.The customs union issue[M].Washington D C:Carnegie Endomwent for International Peace,1950.
[5]KRISHNA P,BHAGWATI J.Necessarily welfare-enhancing customs unions with industrialization constraints:the Cooper-Massell-Johnson-Bhagwati conjecture[J].Japan and the World Economy,1997,9(4):441-446.
[6]DECALUWE B,SAVARD L,THORBECKE E.General equilibrium approach for poverty analysis:with an application to Cameroon[J].African Development Review,2005,17(2):213-243.
[7]FUGAZZA M,MAUR J C.Non-tariff barriers in CGE models:how useful for policy?[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2008,30(3):475-490.
[8]ACHARYA S,HOLSCHER J,PERUGINI C.Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal:a CGE analysis[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29(6):2543-2557.
[9]KAWASAKI K.The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2015,39(C):19-30.
[10]翟凡,李善同,王直.关税减让、国内税替代及其收入分配效应[J].经济研究,1996(12):41-50.
[11]周曙东,胡冰川,崔奇峰.多哈回合农产品关税减让谈判与中国的谈判方案选择——基于CGE模型的视角[J].中国农村经济,2006(9):4-12.
[12]彭高群.基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的几种东亚自由贸易区形式的效应比较研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2009.
[13]武拉平.贸易自由化与减贫:基于中国和东盟国家的实证研究[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011.
[14]张应武,李世杰,朱亭瑜.CEPA促进了中国内地对香港的货物贸易吗?[J].经济与管理研究,2015(6):16-21.
[15]高健,邓茂杰.中国双边贸易流量影响因素探究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016(2):77-82.
[16]丛晓男,王铮.中韩FTA关税减免对东亚主要经济体影响评价——基于自主开发的多区域CGE[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016(5):144-151.
[17]赵亮.“自贸区驱动”能否驱动中国经济增长?——基于贸易福利视角的理论机制与实证论证[J].经济与管理研究,2017(4):16-24.
[18]陈继勇,卢世杰.“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易竞争性测度及影响因素[J].经济与管理研究,2017(11):3-14.
[19]阙登峰,肖汉雄,卓丽洪,杨丹辉.TPP、亚太区域价值链重构及对中国的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2017(1):16-24
[20]顾高翔,王铮.国际资本流动模式及其国际经济影响模拟研究[J].财经研究,2015(11):58-70.
[21]胡敏,王铮,顾高翔.人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析[J].技术经济,2016(11):113-121.
[22]ANTRAS P,CABALLERO R J.Trade and capital flows:a financial frictions perspective[J].Journal of Political Economy,2009,117(4):701-744.
[23]JIN K.Industrial structure and capital flows[J].The American Economic Review,2012,102(5):2111-2146.
(1)具体数据来源于《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook,October 2016)。