观测分析非洲南部地区土壤湿度异常对南半球大气环流的显著影响
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摘要
本文基于44年ERA40再分析月平均土壤湿度资料和大气环流变量场资料,去除ENSO遥相关以及趋势影响后,利用滞后最大协方差方法分析非洲南部地区土壤湿度分布与南半球大气环流异常之间的线性耦合。第一最大协方差模态的结果表明:在南半球冬季(Jun-Jul-Aug,6～8月)和夏季(Jan-Feb-Mar,1～3月),大气中类似南极涛动(Antarctic Oscillation,简称AAO)正位相的环流型与超前月份(最长时间达到5个月)的非洲南部地区土壤湿度的异常分布显著相关。基于土壤湿度变率中心的线性回归分析方法证实非洲南部地区其北部土壤湿度正异常、中南部土壤湿度负异常的空间分布对后期夏季和冬季的大气有显著的反馈作用。诊断结果显示由于夏秋季节和春季初夏非洲南部地区土壤湿度异常均有显著的持续性,同时对后期AAO产生持续增强作用,所以滞后最大协方差方法可以检测出它们对后期AAO的显著影响。以上非洲南部地区土壤湿度异常超前于南极涛动的信号,将有助于加强对土壤湿度反馈机制及其对南半球大尺度环流变率影响的认识。
This study uses maximum covariance analysis(MCA) to investigate the linear covariance between anomalous soil moisture at southern Africa and atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. In the Southern Hemisphere winter(JJA, Jun-Jul-Aug) and summer(JFM, Jan-Feb-Mar), the atmospheric signal resembling the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) is significantly correlated with persistent soil moisture anomalies in southern Africa that can be up to five months ahead in the leading MCA modes.Regression analysis based on the soil moisture anomaly centers from the MCA covariance patterns confirms that earlyseason positive soil moisture anomaly in the northern part of southern Africa and negative soil moisture anomaly in the central and southern part of southern Africa later have significant effects on winter and summer atmospheric circulation.Significant squared covariance of JJA(JFM) AAO seems to be related to persistent soil moisture anomalies in the preceding summer and autumn(spring and early summer) and their continuous and cumulative impacts on the atmosphere. The leading time of southern Africa soil moisture anomaly provides an implication for skillful predictability of large-scale atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere winter and summer.
This study uses maximum covariance analysis(MCA) to investigate the linear covariance between anomalous soil moisture at southern Africa and atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. In the Southern Hemisphere winter(JJA, Jun-Jul-Aug) and summer(JFM, Jan-Feb-Mar), the atmospheric signal resembling the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) is significantly correlated with persistent soil moisture anomalies in southern Africa that can be up to five months ahead in the leading MCA modes.Regression analysis based on the soil moisture anomaly centers from the MCA covariance patterns confirms that earlyseason positive soil moisture anomaly in the northern part of southern Africa and negative soil moisture anomaly in the central and southern part of southern Africa later have significant effects on winter and summer atmospheric circulation.Significant squared covariance of JJA(JFM) AAO seems to be related to persistent soil moisture anomalies in the preceding summer and autumn(spring and early summer) and their continuous and cumulative impacts on the atmosphere. The leading time of southern Africa soil moisture anomaly provides an implication for skillful predictability of large-scale atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere winter and summer.
引文
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Shukla J,Mintz Y.1982.Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earths’climate[J].Science,215(4539):1498-1501.doi:10.1126/science.215.4539.1498
宋洁,李崇银.2009.南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常的联系[J].大气科学,33(4):847-858.Song Jie,Li Chongyin.2009.The linkages between the Antarctic oscillation and the Northern Hemisphere circulation anomalies[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(4):847-858.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.04.17
Song Y M,Guo W D,Zhang Y C.2009.Numerical study of impacts of soil moisture on the diurnal and seasonal cycles of sensible/latent heat fluxes over semi-arid region[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,26(2):319-326.doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0319-2
Taylor C M,Ellis R J.2006.Satellite detection of soil moisture impacts on convection at the mesoscale[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(3):L03404.doi:10.1029/2005GL025252
Koster R D,Dirmeyer P A,Guo Z C,et al.2004.Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation[J].Science,305(5687):1138-1140.doi:10.1126/science.1100217
Uppala S M,K?llberg P W,Simmons A J,et al.2005.The ERA-40re-analysis[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,131(612):2961-3012.doi:10.1256/qj.04.176
US National Research Council.1994.GOALS(Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System)for Predicting Seasonal-to-International Climate[M].Washington D C:National Academy Press
van den Hurk BJJM,Viterbo P,Beljaars ACM,et al.2000.Offline validation of the ERA-40 surface scheme[R].ECMWF Technical Memorandum.
Walker J,Rowntree P R.1977.The effect of soil moisture on circulation and rainfall in a tropical model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,103(435):29-46.doi:10.1002/qj.49710343503
王万秋.1991.土壤温湿异常对短期气候影响的数值模拟试验[J].大气科学,15(5):115-123.Wang Wanqiu.1991.Numerical experiments of the soil temperature and moisture anomalies’effects on the short term climate[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),15(5):115-123.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1991.05.14
Zhang R H,Zuo Z Y.2011.Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China[J].J.Climate,24(13):3309-3322.doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4084.1
张文君,周天军,宇如聪.2008.中国土壤湿度的分布与变化I.多种资料间的比较[J].大气科学,32(3):581-597.Zhang Wenjun,Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.2008.Spatial distribution and temporal variation of soil moisture over China.Part I:Multi-data intercomparison[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(3):581-597.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.03.15
左志燕,张人禾.2007.中国东部夏季降水与春季土壤湿度的联系[J].科学通报,52(14):1722-1724.Zuo Zhiyan,Zhang Renhe.2007.The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,52(23):3310-3312.doi:10.1007/s11434-007-0442-3
Betts A K.2004.Understanding hydrometeorology using global models[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,85(11):1673-1688.doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1673
Czaja A,Frankignoul C.2004.Observed impact of Atlantic SSTanomalies on the North Atlantic oscillation[J].J.Climate,15(6):606-623.doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0606:OIOASA>2.0.CO;2
范可,王会军.2006.南极涛动的年际变化及其对东亚冬春季气候的影响[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,36(4):385-391.Fan Ke,Wang Huijun.2006.Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring[J].Science in China Series D,49(5):554-560.doi:10.1007/s11430-006-0554-7
郭维栋,马柱国,姚永红.2003.近50年中国北方土壤湿度的区域演变特征[J].地球科学进展,58(S7):83-90.Guo Weidong,Ma Zhuguo,Yao Yonghong.2003.Regional characteristics of soil moisture evolution in northern China over recent 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica(in Chinese),58(S7):83-90.doi:10.11821/xb20037s010
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,77(3):437-472.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
Koster R D,Suarez M J,Heiser M.2000.Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,1(1):26-46.doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001<0026:VAPOPA>2.0.CO;2
Koster R D,Mahanama S P P,Livneh B,et al.2010a.Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow[J].Nature Geoscience,3(9):613-616.doi:10.1038/ngeo944
Koster R D,Mahanama S P P,Yamada T J,et al.2010b.Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill:First results from a multi-model experiment[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(2):L02402.doi:10.1029/2009GL041677
李国平,符淙斌,叶笃正.1991.大尺度降雨异常对地面过程的影响--一类气候反馈机制的初步研究[J].大气科学,15(2):23-32.Li Guoping,Fu Congbin,Ye Duzheng.1991.Study on the influences of large-scale persistent rainfall anomalies on the land surface processes-One kind of climatic feedback processes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),15(2):23-32.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1991.02.03
Li S L,Perlwitz J,Hoerling M P,et al.2010.Opposite annular responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to Indian Ocean warming.[J].J.Climate,23(13):3720-3738.doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3410.1
林朝晖,杨小松,郭裕福.2001.陆面过程模式对土壤含水量初值的敏感性研究[J].气候与环境研究,6(2):240-248.Lin Zhaohui,Yang Xiaosong,Guo Yufu.2001.Sensitivity of land surface model to the initial condition of soil moisture[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),6(2):240-248.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2001.02.017
Lorenz R,Jaeger E B,Seneviratne S I.2010.Persistence of heat waves and its link to soil moisture memory[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,37(9):L09703.doi:10.1029/2010GL042764
马柱国,魏和林,符淙斌.2000.中国东部区域土壤湿度的变化及其与气候变率的关系[J].气象学报,58(3):278-287.Ma Zhuguo,Wei Helin,Fu Congbin.2000.Relationship between regional soil moisture variation and climatic variability over East China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),58(3):278-287.doi:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2000.03.003
马柱国,符淙斌,谢力,等.2001.土壤湿度和气候变化关系研究中的某些问题[J].地球科学进展,16(4):563-566.Ma Zhuguo,Fu Congbin,Xie Li,et al.2001.Some problems in the study on the relationship between soil moisture and climatic change[J].Advance in Earth Sciences(in Chinese),16(4):563-566.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2001.04.019
Schlosser C A,Milly P C D.2002.A model-based investigation of soil moisture predictability and associated climate predictability[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,3(4):483-501.doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0483:AMBIOS>2.0.CO;2
Seneviratne S I,Lüthi D,Litschi M,et al.2006.Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe[J].Nature,443(7108):205-209.doi:10.1038/nature05095
尚国伟,吴其冈.2015.欧亚土壤湿度异常对北半球大气环流的显著影响[J].气象科学,35(1):33-43.Shang Guowei,Wu Qigang.2015.Significant influence of Eurasian soil moisture anomaly on Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation[J].Journal of the Meterological Sciences(in Chinese),35(1):33-43.doi:10.3969/2013jms.0068
Shukla J,Mintz Y.1982.Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earths’climate[J].Science,215(4539):1498-1501.doi:10.1126/science.215.4539.1498
宋洁,李崇银.2009.南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常的联系[J].大气科学,33(4):847-858.Song Jie,Li Chongyin.2009.The linkages between the Antarctic oscillation and the Northern Hemisphere circulation anomalies[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),33(4):847-858.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.04.17
Song Y M,Guo W D,Zhang Y C.2009.Numerical study of impacts of soil moisture on the diurnal and seasonal cycles of sensible/latent heat fluxes over semi-arid region[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,26(2):319-326.doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0319-2
Taylor C M,Ellis R J.2006.Satellite detection of soil moisture impacts on convection at the mesoscale[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,33(3):L03404.doi:10.1029/2005GL025252
Koster R D,Dirmeyer P A,Guo Z C,et al.2004.Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation[J].Science,305(5687):1138-1140.doi:10.1126/science.1100217
Uppala S M,K?llberg P W,Simmons A J,et al.2005.The ERA-40re-analysis[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,131(612):2961-3012.doi:10.1256/qj.04.176
US National Research Council.1994.GOALS(Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System)for Predicting Seasonal-to-International Climate[M].Washington D C:National Academy Press
van den Hurk BJJM,Viterbo P,Beljaars ACM,et al.2000.Offline validation of the ERA-40 surface scheme[R].ECMWF Technical Memorandum.
Walker J,Rowntree P R.1977.The effect of soil moisture on circulation and rainfall in a tropical model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,103(435):29-46.doi:10.1002/qj.49710343503
王万秋.1991.土壤温湿异常对短期气候影响的数值模拟试验[J].大气科学,15(5):115-123.Wang Wanqiu.1991.Numerical experiments of the soil temperature and moisture anomalies’effects on the short term climate[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),15(5):115-123.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1991.05.14
Zhang R H,Zuo Z Y.2011.Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China[J].J.Climate,24(13):3309-3322.doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4084.1
张文君,周天军,宇如聪.2008.中国土壤湿度的分布与变化I.多种资料间的比较[J].大气科学,32(3):581-597.Zhang Wenjun,Zhou Tianjun,Yu Rucong.2008.Spatial distribution and temporal variation of soil moisture over China.Part I:Multi-data intercomparison[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(3):581-597.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.03.15
左志燕,张人禾.2007.中国东部夏季降水与春季土壤湿度的联系[J].科学通报,52(14):1722-1724.Zuo Zhiyan,Zhang Renhe.2007.The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,52(23):3310-3312.doi:10.1007/s11434-007-0442-3