计及风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷相关性的配电网可靠性评估
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摘要
风力发电和电锅炉等电采暖负荷接入配电网的可靠性评估过程中,风速-负荷联合二元正态分布函数不能够反映风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷之间的相关性,从而影响了计算的准确性。基于Copula理论,建立风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷相关性的Gumbel-Copula函数关系,通过极大似然估计确定Copula函数中的具体参数,得到其联合概率密度分布函数,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算配电网可靠性指标。通过算例分析结果表明,Gumbel-Copula函数能够较好地反映风速和电锅炉等电采暖负荷之间的相关性,基于所提模型可有效、准确地计算风电和电采暖负荷接入配电网的可靠性。
In the reliability evaluation process of the distribution network connected with wind power and electricity heating load such as electricity boiler,the joint bivariate normal distribution function of wind speed-load cannot accurately describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load,which decreases the calculation accuracy. The Gumbel-Copula function of the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load is established based on Copula theory,and the parameters in Copula function are determined by the maximum likelihood estimate method. Consequently,the joint probability density distribution function can be obtained,and the reliability indices of distribution network are calculated by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Case study results show that the Gumbel-Copula function can well describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load,which contributes to the effective and accurate calculation of distribution network reliability.
In the reliability evaluation process of the distribution network connected with wind power and electricity heating load such as electricity boiler,the joint bivariate normal distribution function of wind speed-load cannot accurately describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load,which decreases the calculation accuracy. The Gumbel-Copula function of the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load is established based on Copula theory,and the parameters in Copula function are determined by the maximum likelihood estimate method. Consequently,the joint probability density distribution function can be obtained,and the reliability indices of distribution network are calculated by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Case study results show that the Gumbel-Copula function can well describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load,which contributes to the effective and accurate calculation of distribution network reliability.
引文
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[2]张鹏,王守相.大规模配电系统可靠性评估的区间算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(3):77-84.ZHANG Peng,WANG Shouxiang.A novel interval method for reliability evaluation of large scale distribution system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(3):77-84.
[3]赵洪山,赵航宇,侯杰群,等.需求响应对配电网供电可靠性影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(1):8-14.ZHAO Hongshan,ZHAO Hangyu,HOU Jiequn,et al.Effect of demand response on supply reliability of distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(1):8-14.
[4]蒋卓臻,刘俊勇,向月.配电网信息物理系统可靠性评估关键技术探讨[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(12):30-42.JIANG Zhuozhen,LIU Junyong,XIANG Yue.Key technologies for reliability assessment of distribution network cyber physical system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(12):30-42.
[5]BAE I S,KIM J O.Reliability evaluation of distributed generation based on operation mode[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2007,22(2):785-790.
[6]SASAKI Y,KITA H,TANAKA E.Evaluation of cost and reliability of power systems with large numbers of distributed generators[J].Electrical Engineering in Japan,2009,167(2):28-37.
[7]姜文,严正.含风电场的发输电组合系统可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(4):5-9.JIANG Wen,YAN Zheng.Reliability assessment of composite generation and transmission system with wind farms[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2010,30(4):5-9.
[8]王韶,谭文,黄晗.计及微电网中可再生能源间歇性影响的配电网可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(4):31-37.WANG Shao,TAN Wen,HUANG Han.Distribution system relidability evaluation considering influence of intermittent renewable energy sources for microgrid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(4):31-37.
[9]赵渊,何媛,宿晓岚,等.分布式电源对配网可靠性的影响及优化配置[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(9):13-20.ZHAO Yuan,HE Yuan,SU Xiaolan,et al.Effect of distributed generation on power distribution system reliability and its optimal allocation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(9):13-20.
[10]JAYAWEERA D,ISLAM S.Probabilistic assessment of distribution network capacity for wind power generation integration[C]∥2009Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference(AUPEC).Adelaide,SA,Australia:IEEE,2009:1-6.
[11]BHUIYAN F A,YAZDANI A.Reliability assessment of a wind-power system with integrated energy storage[J].IET Renewable Power Generation,2010,4(3):211-220.
[12]CALLAWAY D S.Sequential reliability forecasting for wind energy temperature dependence and probability distributions[J].IEEETransactions on Energy Conversion,2010,25(2):577-585.
[13]孙若笛,谢开贵.计及风速-负荷相关性的配电网可靠性评估Monte Carlo模拟法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(18):12-18.SUN Ruodi,XIE Kaigui.Reliability evaluation of distribution networks using Monte Carlo method considering correlations between wind speed and load[J].Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(18):12-18.
[14]徐箭,洪敏,孙元章,等.基于经验Copula函数的多风电场出力动态场景生成方法及其在机组组合中的应用[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(8):81-89.XU Jian,HONG Min,SUN Yuanzhang,et al.Dynamic scenario generation based on empirical Copula function for outputs of multiple wind farms and its application in unit commitment[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(8):81-89.
[15]NELSEN R B.An introduction to Copluas[M].2nd ed.New York,USA:Springer,2006:1-30.
[16]ATWA Y M,El-SAADANY E F,SALAMA M A,et al.Optimal renewable resources mix for distribution system energy loss minimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2010,25(1):360-370.
[17]RAJESH K,PO H,ROY B.A simplified wind power generation model for reliability evaluation[J].IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,2006,21(2):533-540.
[18]丁明,吴伟,吴红斌,等.风速概率分布参数预测及应用[J].电网技术,2008,32(14):10-14.DING Ming,WU Wei,WU Hongbin,et al.Research on forecasting of probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed and its application[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(14):10-14.
[19]王红莲.连接函数(Copula)理论及其在金融中的应用[D].上海:上海财经大学,2006.WANG Honglian.Copula theory and its applications in financial field[D].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,2006.
[20]邱小霞,刘次华,吴娟.Copula函数中参数极大似然估计的性质[J].经济数学,2008,25(2):210-215.QIU Xiaoxia,LIU Cihua,WU Juan.The properties of maximum likelihood estimation of parameter on Copula[J].Mathematics in Economics,2008,25(2):210-215.