长江航道承载力影响因素互适性内涵研究
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摘要
为了研究长江航道承载力中众多影响要素之间的协同互适状态,实现系统中四个利益主体:生态、经济、航运和社会在利益、供需与约束、水资源分配三个方面的协同发展,根据协同论、博弈论、突变理论、耗散结构理论对长江航道承载力的互适协同发展的互适性内涵及互适发展规律进行归纳总结。研究发现:长江航道承载力的发展路径是循环往复的非线性螺旋上升过程,此过程中需要解决三个主要矛盾:"长江水资源分配博弈"、"多目标利益冲突"及"多约束因素与需求因素的矛盾",而航道尺度是解决长江航道尺度多约束、多利益协调的调控参量,需要充分考虑其受到生态、经济、航运、社会各类因素的共同影响,为后续长江航道承载力计算模型设计奠定理论基础。
In order to study the coordination and mutual adaptability among the many influencing factors on the carrying capacity of the Yangtze River waterway, we attempted to realize the coordinated development of the four stakeholders of the system, namely ecology,economy, shipping and society in the three aspects of interests, supply/demand and constraints, and water resources distribution. Next,following the coordination theory, game theory, catastrophe theory and dissipative structure theory, we summarized the connotation and law of the coordination and mutual adaptability of the carrying capacity of the Yangtze River waterway. The study finds that the development path of the Yangtze River waterway carrying capacity is a non-linear spiral process of cyclic reciprocation, wherein three main contradictions need to be solved, namely "the Yangtze River water resource allocation game", the "multi-objective conflict of interest" and the "contradiction between multi-constraint factors and demand factors". Channel scale is the regulation parameter to the multi-constraint and multi-benefit coordination of the Yangtze River waterway, which needs to be fully considered under the joint influence of the ecological, economic, shipping and social factors.
In order to study the coordination and mutual adaptability among the many influencing factors on the carrying capacity of the Yangtze River waterway, we attempted to realize the coordinated development of the four stakeholders of the system, namely ecology,economy, shipping and society in the three aspects of interests, supply/demand and constraints, and water resources distribution. Next,following the coordination theory, game theory, catastrophe theory and dissipative structure theory, we summarized the connotation and law of the coordination and mutual adaptability of the carrying capacity of the Yangtze River waterway. The study finds that the development path of the Yangtze River waterway carrying capacity is a non-linear spiral process of cyclic reciprocation, wherein three main contradictions need to be solved, namely "the Yangtze River water resource allocation game", the "multi-objective conflict of interest" and the "contradiction between multi-constraint factors and demand factors". Channel scale is the regulation parameter to the multi-constraint and multi-benefit coordination of the Yangtze River waterway, which needs to be fully considered under the joint influence of the ecological, economic, shipping and social factors.
引文
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[2]刘敬贤,文元桥.基于船舶行为特征的港口航道通过能力仿真[J].大连海事大学学报,2009,35(2):31-33,37.
[3]雷雪婷,李有为,马奕,等.长江下游太平洲捷水道设计航道尺度标准[J].水运工程,2015,(4):163-169.
[4]李天宏,丁瑶,倪晋仁,等.长江中游荆江河段生态航道评价研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2017,25(2):221-234.
[5]赵艺为,张培林.长江航道承载力概念研究[J].水运工程,2018,(3):124-128,165.
[6]方创琳.京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):15-24.
[7]李冬冬.城市生态建设与城市经济竞争力协同机制研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2014.
[8]范如国,李星.产业集群内多企业动态合作创新博弈分析[J].学习与实践,2011,(12):35-43.
[9]孙健夫,阎东彬.京津冀城市群综合承载力系统耦合机理及其动力机制[J].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,41(5):72-78.
[10]袁振洲,邓娜,闫欣欣.交通承载力与环境承载力的耦合协调度—基于城市群的实证分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2017,41(4):123-128.
[11]韩燕.区域综合承载力理论与实证研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2012.
[12]陆海曙.基于博弈论的流域水资源利用冲突及初始水权分配研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007.
[13]M Prsic,D Carevic,D Brsis.Determining Inland Waterway Parameters with Application to the Sava River[J].PrometTraffic&Traffico,2011,23(2):147-154.
[14]黄珺嫦.土地综合承载力系统构建与评价研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2015.