南水北调工程突发水污染事件分级体系研究
|
摘要
南水北调中线工程是一项利国利民的大项目,也是我国未来能源发展战略的重要举措。根据"驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应"(DPSIR)模型框架,提出了南水北调中线突发水污染事件分级体系。首先选取能够反映区域驱动力、压力、状态、影响、和响应的16个指标构建评价指标体系,并根据指标的特性分为静态系统和动态系统两部分;其次结合中线工程实际现状进行指标的标准化赋值;然后利用层次结构分析法和社会协调发展度模型确定突发水污染事件的风险等级;最后以S237运河大桥为例,描述和验证了该分级体系的合理性。
The Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project(MRP) is a large-scale project benefiting the whole nation, and also a key measure of China's future energy development strategy. This paper describes a classification and grading system of water pollution emergencies in MRP based on a driving-pressure-state-impact-responses(DPSIR) framework. First, we construct an evaluation index system using 16 indicators selected to reflect the driving force, pressure, state, influence and response of different regions, and divide them into a static system and a dynamic system by the characteristics of the indicators. Then, their values are specified through a procedure of standardized assignment that considers the overall conditions and requirements of MRP, and the risk level of water pollution emergencies is determined using an analytical hierarchy procedure and a coordinated social development model. Finally, a classification system is described and verified using a case study of the canal bridge S237.
The Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project(MRP) is a large-scale project benefiting the whole nation, and also a key measure of China's future energy development strategy. This paper describes a classification and grading system of water pollution emergencies in MRP based on a driving-pressure-state-impact-responses(DPSIR) framework. First, we construct an evaluation index system using 16 indicators selected to reflect the driving force, pressure, state, influence and response of different regions, and divide them into a static system and a dynamic system by the characteristics of the indicators. Then, their values are specified through a procedure of standardized assignment that considers the overall conditions and requirements of MRP, and the risk level of water pollution emergencies is determined using an analytical hierarchy procedure and a coordinated social development model. Finally, a classification system is described and verified using a case study of the canal bridge S237.
引文
[1]EDITORS B,REBBIA C A.Water resources management[M].Boston:WIT Press,2001.
[2]BISWAS A K.Water for sustainable development in 21century,Adress to 7 word congress on water resource[M].Morocco:Water International,1991,16:84-91.
[3]陆雪明,冯明祥,白霜.浅谈跨流域调水工程及应注意的问题[J].东北水利水电,2004,22(9):21-23.LU Xueming,FENG Mingxiang,BAI Shuang.Talking interbasin wafer diversion project and questions paid attention[J].Water Resources&Hydropower of Northeast China,2004,22(9):21-23.(in Chinese)
[4]俞澄生.南水北调中线工程的必要性和主要建设项目[J].长江水利教育,1994,11(4):46-54.YU Chengsheng.Necessity and main construction project of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Yangtze River Water Conservancy Education,1994,11(4):46-54.(in Chinese)
[5]张佩.基于经济损益分析的突发水污染风险评估及应对策略研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.ZHANG Pei.Study on risk assessment and coping strategy of accidental water contamination based on economic cost-benefit analysis[D].Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[6]安莹,李生才.2012年3-4月国内环境事件[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(3):263-268.AN Ying,LI Shengcai.Statistics of environmental events in China during period from March to April in 2012[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2012,12(3):263-268.(in Chinese)
[7]JIANG J P,WANG P,LUNG W S,et al.A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2012,227/228:280-291.
[8]JING L,CHEN B,ZHANG B,et al.Monte Carlo Simulation-aided analytic hierarchy process approach:Case study of assessing preferred non-point-source pollution control best management practices[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,2013,139:618-626.
[9]HOU D B,GE X F,HUANG P J,et al.A real-time,dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2014,21(14):8878-8892.
[10]ZHANG X J,QIU N,ZHAO W R,et al.Water environment early warning index system in Tongzhou District[J].Natural Hazards,2015,75(3):2699-2714.
[11]逄勇,徐秋霞.水源地水污染风险等级判别方法及应用[J].环境监控与预警,2009,1(2):1-4.PANG Yong,XU Qiuxia.Source water pollution risk discrimination technique and its application[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2009,1(2):1-4.(in Chinese)
[12]CHENG C Y,QIAN X.Evaluation of emergency planning for water pollution incidents in reservoir based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010,2:566-570.
[13]LONG Y,XU G B,Ma C,et al.Emergency control system based on the analytical hierarchy process and coordinated development degree model for sudden water pollution accidents in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research,2016,23(12):12332-12342.
[14]雷晓辉,权锦,王浩,等.跨流域调水工程突发水污染应急调控关键技术与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.LEI Xiaohui,QUAN Jin,WANG Hao,et al.Application of key technologies in emergency control of sudden water pollution in inter-basin water diversion project[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[15]TANG C,YI Y,YANG Z,et al.Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in the main canal of the Southto-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,519:2111-2120.
[16]李玉照,刘永,颜小品.基于DPSIR模型的流域生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(6):971-981.LI Yuzhao,LIU Yong,YAN Xiaopin.A DPSIR-based indicator system for ecological security assessment at the basin scale[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2012,48(6):971-981.(in Chinese)
[17]何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.HE Gang,XIA Yeling,ZHU Yanna,et al.Evaluation and prediction of land carrying capacity in Anhui province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,38(2):127-134.(in Chinese)
[18]REBECCA L L,MURRAY A R,WISSAM A,et al.How the DPSIR framework can be used for structuring problems and facilitating empirical research in coastal systems[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2016,56:110-119.
[19]穆杰.长距离输水工程突发水污染事件风险评价与预警预案研究[D].天津:天津大学,2016.MU Jie.Risk assessment and early emergency warning plans for water pollution accidents in long distance water transfer projects[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2016.(in Chinese)
[20]邵超峰,鞠美庭,张裕芬,等.基于DPSIR模型的天津滨海新区生态环境安全评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(5):87-92.SHAO Chaofeng,JU Meiting,ZHANG Yufen,et al.Ecoenvironment security assessment study for the Binhai New Area,Tianjin,based on DPSIR model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(5):87-92.(in Chinese)
[2]BISWAS A K.Water for sustainable development in 21century,Adress to 7 word congress on water resource[M].Morocco:Water International,1991,16:84-91.
[3]陆雪明,冯明祥,白霜.浅谈跨流域调水工程及应注意的问题[J].东北水利水电,2004,22(9):21-23.LU Xueming,FENG Mingxiang,BAI Shuang.Talking interbasin wafer diversion project and questions paid attention[J].Water Resources&Hydropower of Northeast China,2004,22(9):21-23.(in Chinese)
[4]俞澄生.南水北调中线工程的必要性和主要建设项目[J].长江水利教育,1994,11(4):46-54.YU Chengsheng.Necessity and main construction project of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Yangtze River Water Conservancy Education,1994,11(4):46-54.(in Chinese)
[5]张佩.基于经济损益分析的突发水污染风险评估及应对策略研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.ZHANG Pei.Study on risk assessment and coping strategy of accidental water contamination based on economic cost-benefit analysis[D].Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2015.(in Chinese)
[6]安莹,李生才.2012年3-4月国内环境事件[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(3):263-268.AN Ying,LI Shengcai.Statistics of environmental events in China during period from March to April in 2012[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2012,12(3):263-268.(in Chinese)
[7]JIANG J P,WANG P,LUNG W S,et al.A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2012,227/228:280-291.
[8]JING L,CHEN B,ZHANG B,et al.Monte Carlo Simulation-aided analytic hierarchy process approach:Case study of assessing preferred non-point-source pollution control best management practices[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,2013,139:618-626.
[9]HOU D B,GE X F,HUANG P J,et al.A real-time,dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2014,21(14):8878-8892.
[10]ZHANG X J,QIU N,ZHAO W R,et al.Water environment early warning index system in Tongzhou District[J].Natural Hazards,2015,75(3):2699-2714.
[11]逄勇,徐秋霞.水源地水污染风险等级判别方法及应用[J].环境监控与预警,2009,1(2):1-4.PANG Yong,XU Qiuxia.Source water pollution risk discrimination technique and its application[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2009,1(2):1-4.(in Chinese)
[12]CHENG C Y,QIAN X.Evaluation of emergency planning for water pollution incidents in reservoir based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010,2:566-570.
[13]LONG Y,XU G B,Ma C,et al.Emergency control system based on the analytical hierarchy process and coordinated development degree model for sudden water pollution accidents in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research,2016,23(12):12332-12342.
[14]雷晓辉,权锦,王浩,等.跨流域调水工程突发水污染应急调控关键技术与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.LEI Xiaohui,QUAN Jin,WANG Hao,et al.Application of key technologies in emergency control of sudden water pollution in inter-basin water diversion project[M].Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese)
[15]TANG C,YI Y,YANG Z,et al.Water pollution risk simulation and prediction in the main canal of the Southto-North Water Transfer Project[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,519:2111-2120.
[16]李玉照,刘永,颜小品.基于DPSIR模型的流域生态安全评价指标体系研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(6):971-981.LI Yuzhao,LIU Yong,YAN Xiaopin.A DPSIR-based indicator system for ecological security assessment at the basin scale[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2012,48(6):971-981.(in Chinese)
[17]何刚,夏业领,朱艳娜,等.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):127-134.HE Gang,XIA Yeling,ZHU Yanna,et al.Evaluation and prediction of land carrying capacity in Anhui province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,38(2):127-134.(in Chinese)
[18]REBECCA L L,MURRAY A R,WISSAM A,et al.How the DPSIR framework can be used for structuring problems and facilitating empirical research in coastal systems[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2016,56:110-119.
[19]穆杰.长距离输水工程突发水污染事件风险评价与预警预案研究[D].天津:天津大学,2016.MU Jie.Risk assessment and early emergency warning plans for water pollution accidents in long distance water transfer projects[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2016.(in Chinese)
[20]邵超峰,鞠美庭,张裕芬,等.基于DPSIR模型的天津滨海新区生态环境安全评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(5):87-92.SHAO Chaofeng,JU Meiting,ZHANG Yufen,et al.Ecoenvironment security assessment study for the Binhai New Area,Tianjin,based on DPSIR model[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(5):87-92.(in Chinese)