民用机场停机坪安全三维风险预警模型研究
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摘要
鉴于机场风险管控能力差异对风险的影响,对停机坪安全三维风险预警模型进行了研究。采用扎根理论构建35个停机坪安全风险预警指标,在传统二维风险矩阵的基础上,考虑风险受体脆弱性,建立停机坪安全三维风险预警模型,采用最优分割法确定预警警级和阈值,采用层次分析法-模糊综合评价法计算警度,并发出预警信号。结果表明:35个风险预警指标中,18个指标警情处于Ⅱ级,发出黄色轻警信号;17个指标警情处于Ⅲ级,发出橙色中警信号;而综合风险警情为Ⅱ级,发出黄色轻警信号。
In view of the different influences of the airport risk control capability,this paper is aimed at working out a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron in the civil airport. For this purpose,we have first of all adopted the ground-controlling theory to formulate a 35 apron safety risk warning indicator system which can be divided into 4 dimensions,that is,human factors,machinery and equipment factors,the environment factors,management factors,which can ensure the comprehensiveness and rationality of the indicator system. Secondly,we have summarized the vulnerabilities of the risk receptors and established a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron on the basis of the traditional 2-D risk matrix,while full responsibility for the airport safety should be involved in the severity of the risk accidents. Seeing this,we prefer to adopt the Optimal Segmentation method to determine the warning level and threshold,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for calculating the warning degrees. Of course,the final warning issue has to be delivered according to the warning level and threshold. Therefore,the results of our examination show that the influence degree of the secondary indicators on the overall target ranges as follows: the management factors,the human factors,the mechanical and equipment factors,and,then,the environmental factors. As for the third level indicators,among which the pilot operation error rate,the operating personnel violation rate,the safety supervisory and the management experience and the capability of the apron managers should rank top in the overall impact. Besides,the 18 safety risk indicators should be relegated in the second risk level and in the state of yellow warning,whereas the 17 risk indicators are to be put into the 3-rd risk level and in the status of the orange warning( which belong to the high risk levels). Moreover,the comprehensive risk should be attributed to the second level in the state of yellow warning. Thus,the model we have proposed can make up for the shortage of research in this way,which helps to create a new perspective to the research of safety risk warning in the civil airport and aviation control.
In view of the different influences of the airport risk control capability,this paper is aimed at working out a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron in the civil airport. For this purpose,we have first of all adopted the ground-controlling theory to formulate a 35 apron safety risk warning indicator system which can be divided into 4 dimensions,that is,human factors,machinery and equipment factors,the environment factors,management factors,which can ensure the comprehensiveness and rationality of the indicator system. Secondly,we have summarized the vulnerabilities of the risk receptors and established a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron on the basis of the traditional 2-D risk matrix,while full responsibility for the airport safety should be involved in the severity of the risk accidents. Seeing this,we prefer to adopt the Optimal Segmentation method to determine the warning level and threshold,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for calculating the warning degrees. Of course,the final warning issue has to be delivered according to the warning level and threshold. Therefore,the results of our examination show that the influence degree of the secondary indicators on the overall target ranges as follows: the management factors,the human factors,the mechanical and equipment factors,and,then,the environmental factors. As for the third level indicators,among which the pilot operation error rate,the operating personnel violation rate,the safety supervisory and the management experience and the capability of the apron managers should rank top in the overall impact. Besides,the 18 safety risk indicators should be relegated in the second risk level and in the state of yellow warning,whereas the 17 risk indicators are to be put into the 3-rd risk level and in the status of the orange warning( which belong to the high risk levels). Moreover,the comprehensive risk should be attributed to the second level in the state of yellow warning. Thus,the model we have proposed can make up for the shortage of research in this way,which helps to create a new perspective to the research of safety risk warning in the civil airport and aviation control.
引文
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[9]MIRKOVIC B,TOSIC V.Airport apron capacity:estimation,representation,and flexibility[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,2014,48(2):97-118.
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[14]PAUL R,GARVEY P R,LANSDOWNE Z F.Risk matrix:an approach for identifying,assessing,and ranking program risks[J].Air Force Journal of Logistics,1998,25(3):16-19.
[15]TANG Xinxin(唐辛欣).Runway Incursion factitious risks comprehensive evaluation based on grey clustering[J].Journal of U-niversity Electronic Science and Technology of China:Social Sciences Edition(电子科技大学学报:社科版),2015,17(2):27-33.
[16]SHI Rong(石荣).Airline's flight safety risk assessment based on optimal combination weight method[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information(交通运输工程与信息学报),2014,12(2):36-41.
[17]HU Xiaoyun(胡晓运),LIN Luyao(林璐瑶),TANG Wanjin(汤万金),et al.Life cycle hazard identification and a 3d risk matrix evaluation for customer product safety[J].System Engiineering-Thoory&Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2014,34(5):1213-1218.
[18]GLASER B G,STRAUSS A L.The discovery of grounded theory:strategies for qualitative research[M].Chicago:Aldine Publishing Company,1967.
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[20]ZHANG Jingwei(张敬伟),MA Dongjun(马东俊).Grounded theory method and management research[J].Journal of Modern Management Science(现代管理科学),2009,2:115-117.
[21]MILES M B,HUBERMAN A M.Qualitative data analysis:an expanded sourcebook[M].Thousand Oaks:Sage Publications,1994.
[22]SUN Ken(孙垦),CAI Hongtao(蔡洪涛),YANG Chonghao(扬崇豪).Methods of building risk matrix in quantitative risk analysis[J].Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power(华北水利水电学院学报),2011,32(5):158-160.
[23]FISHER W D.On grouping for maximum homogeneity[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1958,53(284):789-798.
[24]PAN Dan(潘丹),LUO Fan(罗帆).Defining of the early-warning safety risk threshold in the civil aviation airport apron[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(3):853-859.
[2]CHEN Tiemin(陈铁民).The apron operation safety regulation[J].Aviation Safety(航空安全),2010,113(5):60-61.
[3]ADEBUKOLA Y D.An investigation of air accidents in nigeria using the human factors analysis and classification system(HFACS)framework[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2014,35(4):39-50.
[4]PAN W J,QIU W B.Airport apron safety management research[J].Science Technology&Industry,2014,14(1):133-136.
[5]CHENG L W,ROBERT E C.Modeling of aircraft rotation in a multiple airport environment[J].Transportation Research,2002,38(2):265-277.
[6]HOJONG B,ANTONIO A T.Framework of a time-based simulation model for the analysis of airfield operations[J].Journal of Air Transportation Engineering,2008,32(2):397-413.
[7]KURNAZ S,CETIN O,KAYNAK O.Fuzzy logic based approach to design of flight control and navigation tasks for autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles[J].Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems,2009,54(3):229-244.
[8]MIRKOVIC B.Airport apron capacity estimation-model enhancement[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2011,20(6):1108-1117.
[9]MIRKOVIC B,TOSIC V.Airport apron capacity:estimation,representation,and flexibility[J].Journal of Advanced Transportation,2014,48(2):97-118.
[10]WANG Hongde(王洪德),PAN Ke(潘科).Breakthrough in early safety warning system for civil aviation airport based on BP neural network[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2008,8(4):139-143.
[11]ZHAO Guihong(赵桂红),SONG Changjin(宋长进).Application of Artificial Neural Network in apron safety early warning[J].Journal of China Civil Aviation University(中国民航大学学报),2011,29(6):31-34.
[12]LUO Fan(罗帆),LIU Xiaoping(刘小平),YANG Zhi(杨智).Pre-warning decision-making model simulation of air traffic control safety risk based on system dynamics[J].Systems Engineering(系统工程),2014,32(1):139-145.
[13]WANG Yantao(王岩韬),LU Fei(卢飞),ZHANG Jing(张静),et al.Research on flight crew operation risk early warning[J].China Safety Science Journal(中国安全科学学报),2014,24(9):83-87.
[14]PAUL R,GARVEY P R,LANSDOWNE Z F.Risk matrix:an approach for identifying,assessing,and ranking program risks[J].Air Force Journal of Logistics,1998,25(3):16-19.
[15]TANG Xinxin(唐辛欣).Runway Incursion factitious risks comprehensive evaluation based on grey clustering[J].Journal of U-niversity Electronic Science and Technology of China:Social Sciences Edition(电子科技大学学报:社科版),2015,17(2):27-33.
[16]SHI Rong(石荣).Airline's flight safety risk assessment based on optimal combination weight method[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information(交通运输工程与信息学报),2014,12(2):36-41.
[17]HU Xiaoyun(胡晓运),LIN Luyao(林璐瑶),TANG Wanjin(汤万金),et al.Life cycle hazard identification and a 3d risk matrix evaluation for customer product safety[J].System Engiineering-Thoory&Practice(系统工程理论与实践),2014,34(5):1213-1218.
[18]GLASER B G,STRAUSS A L.The discovery of grounded theory:strategies for qualitative research[M].Chicago:Aldine Publishing Company,1967.
[19]DENZIN Y,LINCOLN S.Handbook of qualitative research[M].Thousand Oaks:Sage Publications,1994.
[20]ZHANG Jingwei(张敬伟),MA Dongjun(马东俊).Grounded theory method and management research[J].Journal of Modern Management Science(现代管理科学),2009,2:115-117.
[21]MILES M B,HUBERMAN A M.Qualitative data analysis:an expanded sourcebook[M].Thousand Oaks:Sage Publications,1994.
[22]SUN Ken(孙垦),CAI Hongtao(蔡洪涛),YANG Chonghao(扬崇豪).Methods of building risk matrix in quantitative risk analysis[J].Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power(华北水利水电学院学报),2011,32(5):158-160.
[23]FISHER W D.On grouping for maximum homogeneity[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1958,53(284):789-798.
[24]PAN Dan(潘丹),LUO Fan(罗帆).Defining of the early-warning safety risk threshold in the civil aviation airport apron[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2018,18(3):853-859.