广东省能源消费碳排放分析及碳排放强度影响因素研究
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摘要
根据省级能源统计和温室气体核算规则,计算分析了2005~2012年广东省能源消费碳排放和碳排放强度变化,并应用对数平均迪氏指数法对计算期的碳排放强度变化进行因素分解,定量分析了各产业(部门)能耗强度、产业结构、能源消费结构和能源碳排放系数对广东省碳排放强度变动的影响.结果表明:2005~2012年,广东省能源消费CO2排放年均增长6.28%,单位GDP碳排放累计下降27%,各产业(部门)能耗强度下降是推动碳排放强度下降的主要原因;净外购电力的碳排放系数下降及用作原材料石油消费比重上升也有利于单位GDP碳排放下降;产业结构和能源消费结构总体上朝着不利于碳排放强度下降的趋势发展;生活能源消费年均增速低于GDP年均增速,有利于地区碳排放强度下降.
Based on the provincial energy statistics and the rules of greenhouse gas(GHG) accounting, the CO2 emissions and its carbon intensity change from energy consumption in Guangdong Province in the period of 2005 to 2012 were analyzed in this study. Using the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, the driving factors that were behind the intensity change were investigated, which included the sectoral energy intensity, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon emission co-efficients. Results showed that Guangdong's CO2 emissions from the energy use increased by 6.3% annually, while the carbon intensity(by unit GDP) decreased 27% during the period. The CO2 intensity decrease should be attributed mainly to the declining of the energy consumption intensity across the industrial sectors. Other factors that contributed to the CO2 intensity reduction included the drop of the carbon content of the net imported electricity and the increased share of the petroleum consumption that was used as raw material. Other factors such as the industrial structure and the energy structure, were developed in a direction that lifts the CO2 intensity of the province, while the factor of the household energy consumption contributed the opposite, with a growth rate lower than that of the GDP.
Based on the provincial energy statistics and the rules of greenhouse gas(GHG) accounting, the CO2 emissions and its carbon intensity change from energy consumption in Guangdong Province in the period of 2005 to 2012 were analyzed in this study. Using the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, the driving factors that were behind the intensity change were investigated, which included the sectoral energy intensity, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon emission co-efficients. Results showed that Guangdong's CO2 emissions from the energy use increased by 6.3% annually, while the carbon intensity(by unit GDP) decreased 27% during the period. The CO2 intensity decrease should be attributed mainly to the declining of the energy consumption intensity across the industrial sectors. Other factors that contributed to the CO2 intensity reduction included the drop of the carbon content of the net imported electricity and the increased share of the petroleum consumption that was used as raw material. Other factors such as the industrial structure and the energy structure, were developed in a direction that lifts the CO2 intensity of the province, while the factor of the household energy consumption contributed the opposite, with a growth rate lower than that of the GDP.
引文
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[3]谢士晨,陈长虹,李莉,等.上海市能源消费CO2排放清单与碳流通图[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(11):1215-1220.
[4]赵敏.上海市终端能源消费的CO2排放影响因素定量分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(9):1583-1590.
[5]陈操操,刘春兰,汪浩,等.北京市能源消费碳足迹影响因素分析—基于STIRPAT模型和偏小二乘模型[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(6):1622-1632.
[6]冯蕊,朱坦,陈胜男,等.天津市居民生活消费CO2排放估算分析[J].中国环境科学,2011,31(1):163-169.
[7]刘继森,颜雯晶.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究[J].广东外语外贸大学学报,2010,21(2):19-4.
[8]宋佩珊,计军平,马晓明.广东省能源消费碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):551-558.
[9]苟少梅,王长建,张利,等.1990~2010年广东省能源消费的碳排放驱动因素分析[J].热带地理,2012,32(4):389-394+401.
[10]陈铭泽.基于Divisia分解法的碳排放因素分解研究—以广东省为例[J].安徽农业科学,2011,(1):6640-6642.
[11]国家发展和改革委员会办公厅.省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)[Z].北京:国家发展和改革委员会,2011.
[12]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.广东统计年鉴2006-2013[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2013.
[13]国家统计局能源统计司,中国能源统计年鉴.2006-2013[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2013.
[14]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[15]国家统计局.能源统计报表制度[EB/OL].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/tjzd/gjtjzd/201501/t20150105_663439.html.
[16]国家发展和改革委员会应对气候变化司.2010年中国区域及省级电网平均二氧化碳排放因子[R].北京:国家发展和改革委员会,2013.
[17]国家发展和改革委员会应对气候变化司.2011年和2012年中国区域电网平均二氧化碳排放因子[R].北京:国家发展和改革委员会,2014.
[18]顾鹏,马晓明.基于居民合理生活消费的人均碳排放计算[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(8):1509-1517.
[19]田中华,陈健,张磊,等.广东省单位GDP能耗行业分解研究[R].广州:广东省节能监察中心,2012.