平稳增长条件下中国各省市自治区的排放需求估算
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摘要
文章运用碳排放经济动力学模型,分析了中国各省市自治区2009—2050年的能源碳排放需求量和减排可能性。结果表明:(1)我国大多数地区节能减排处在良性发展阶段,我国的哥本哈根承诺在发展低碳技术的前提下可以满足;(2)2020年以前,按照平稳增长要求,我国西部地区不可能达到减排40%—45%的平均减排目标,因此东部地区在未来的减排过程中需要承担更多责任;(3)以上海为代表的传统工业省区,以及经济正在起飞的中部省区,不宜大规模降低能源消费,因此需加大对这些地区的产业机构进步投资和能源结构优化,以降低碳排放;(4)经济欠发达的西部省区内蒙古、宁夏、青海、贵州及云南地区,节能减排压力大,需重点加快技术进步投资和改进生产模式,以保障实现最优的平稳增长。
In this paper,a carbon dynamic model is used to analyze the requirement of energy carbon emissions of each province between 2009-2050 in China mainland.The following four major results are achieved.Firstly,the most regions of China mainland enter into a healthy development stage for the energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction.Secondly,the west of China mainland cannot achieve the target that carbon intensity reduces 40%-50% by 2020 comparing with 2005,therefore,the east of China mainland needs to take more responsibilities on energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in the future.Thirdly,industrial base represented by Shanghai and the central region of China mainland whose economies are taking off,should not cut too much energy consumption,because they need energy to support their economic development in the future.Thus increasing the technical transformation investment and reshaping the energy structure should be considered in these regions.Finally,the underdeveloped western provinces,such as Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Qinghai,and Guizhou,suffer the high-pressure of the energy conservation and carbon emission reductions,and the key measure is changing industrial structure and production mode to ensure the optimized balance growth.
In this paper,a carbon dynamic model is used to analyze the requirement of energy carbon emissions of each province between 2009-2050 in China mainland.The following four major results are achieved.Firstly,the most regions of China mainland enter into a healthy development stage for the energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction.Secondly,the west of China mainland cannot achieve the target that carbon intensity reduces 40%-50% by 2020 comparing with 2005,therefore,the east of China mainland needs to take more responsibilities on energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in the future.Thirdly,industrial base represented by Shanghai and the central region of China mainland whose economies are taking off,should not cut too much energy consumption,because they need energy to support their economic development in the future.Thus increasing the technical transformation investment and reshaping the energy structure should be considered in these regions.Finally,the underdeveloped western provinces,such as Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Qinghai,and Guizhou,suffer the high-pressure of the energy conservation and carbon emission reductions,and the key measure is changing industrial structure and production mode to ensure the optimized balance growth.
引文
1梁朝晖.上海市碳排放的历史特征与远期趋势分析.上海经济研究,2009(7):79-87.
2王铮,翟石艳,马晓哲.河南省能源消费碳排放的历史特征及趋势预测.地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):69-74.
3刘继森,颜雯晶.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究.广东对外语外经大学学报,2010,(2):19-21.
4翟石艳,王铮等.区域碳排放量的计算:以广东省为例.应用生态学报,2011,22(6):1543-1551.
5刘慧雅,王铮,马晓哲.排放与森林碳汇作用下云南省碳净排放量估计.生态学报,2011,31(5):4405-4414.
6刘晓,熊文等.经济平稳增长下的湖南省能源消费量碳排放量预测.热带地理,31(3):310-315.
7朱永彬,王铮.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测.地理学报.2009,64(8):935-944.
8王铮,朱永彬等.最优增长路径下的中国碳排放估计.地理学报,2010,65(12):1559-1568.
9 Barro R J,Sala I Martin.Econonimc Growth.Cam-bridge:MIT Press,2004.
10 Auffhammer M,Carson R T.Forecasting the path ofChina's CO2emissions using province-level information.J.Environ.Econom.Management,2008,55:229-247.
11 Goldsmith R W.A Perpetual Inventory of NationalWealth.In:Goldsmith R W.Studies in Income andWealth.New York:National Bureau of EconomicResearch,1951.
12张军,吴桂英等.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000.经济研究,2004,(10):35-44.
2王铮,翟石艳,马晓哲.河南省能源消费碳排放的历史特征及趋势预测.地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):69-74.
3刘继森,颜雯晶.广东省经济增长与碳排放的关系研究.广东对外语外经大学学报,2010,(2):19-21.
4翟石艳,王铮等.区域碳排放量的计算:以广东省为例.应用生态学报,2011,22(6):1543-1551.
5刘慧雅,王铮,马晓哲.排放与森林碳汇作用下云南省碳净排放量估计.生态学报,2011,31(5):4405-4414.
6刘晓,熊文等.经济平稳增长下的湖南省能源消费量碳排放量预测.热带地理,31(3):310-315.
7朱永彬,王铮.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测.地理学报.2009,64(8):935-944.
8王铮,朱永彬等.最优增长路径下的中国碳排放估计.地理学报,2010,65(12):1559-1568.
9 Barro R J,Sala I Martin.Econonimc Growth.Cam-bridge:MIT Press,2004.
10 Auffhammer M,Carson R T.Forecasting the path ofChina's CO2emissions using province-level information.J.Environ.Econom.Management,2008,55:229-247.
11 Goldsmith R W.A Perpetual Inventory of NationalWealth.In:Goldsmith R W.Studies in Income andWealth.New York:National Bureau of EconomicResearch,1951.
12张军,吴桂英等.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000.经济研究,2004,(10):35-44.