中国国际贸易海运CO_2排放特征及驱动因素研究
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摘要
近年来中国国际贸易海运量持续增长,海运CO_2排放量显著增加,海运业碳减排问题受到社会各界的广泛关注。本文基于2001—2016年的中国海运量数据,运用IPCC清单中"自下向上"的方法,按照实际货物运输类别将海运细分成液体散货运输、干散货运输、集装箱运输三种方式,分别按船型核算以中国为始发地或目的地的国际贸易海运产生的CO_2排放,并对CO_2排放总量进行时序特征分析;应用LMDI模型对中国国际贸易海运CO_2排放的驱动因素进行分解分析。研究结果表明:(1) 2001—2016年间,中国国际贸易海运CO_2排放的演进经历了三个阶段,总体呈显著增加趋势;(2)人均GDP和人口始终是加剧CO_2排放的因素,其中人均GDP是CO_2排放增加的最大拉动因素,反映出中国国际贸易海运CO_2排放与经济发展密切相关;(3)能源强度因素抑制了海运CO_2排放增加,成为海运业未来强有力的碳减排驱动因素;降低海运强度有助于降低CO_2排放;(4)基于目前的经济社会发展态势,在没有出台新的针对性政策的情景下,未来一段时间内中国国际贸易海运CO_2将会保持增长。研究结果可对中国制定海运领域碳减排政策提供参考。
A bottom-up approach provided by IPCC was developed for calculating the CO_2 emissions from China's international seaborne trade sector during the period of 2001—2016. Based on the freight transport volume and considering the various commodities, shipping modes can be categorized into liquid bulk shipping, dry bulk shipping, and containers. The specified CO_2 emissions were estimated referring to the considered shipping modes. The aggregated CO_2 emissions were characterized to figure out the features during the study period. The decomposition analysis adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method was introduced to investigate the key influencing factors that initiated an impact on the CO_2 emission changes in the China's international maritime activities. The results demonstrated that(1). The CO_2 emissions from China's international seaborne trade witnessed a significant increase between 2001 and 2016. The shortterm evolution trend did exhibit three different stages.(2) The factors of per capita GDP and population size were proved to be the positive contributors all the time. The per capita GDP was served as the major force, which reflected the close correlation between the CO_2 emissions and the economic development.(3) Energy intensity of vessels generated CO_2 emissions during the study period and it had become the most powerful driving factor for the future CO_2 emissions reduction in maritime transportation sector. The reduction of the marine transportation intensity appeared to be another inhibiting factor that contributed to the mitigation of the CO_2 emissions. And(4) Under the business-as-usual(BAU) scenario without launching the new policies, CO_2 emissions from China's international maritime transportation will keep on as an increase trend in the future. It is desirable for policy makers to develop future mitigation policies according to this work.
A bottom-up approach provided by IPCC was developed for calculating the CO_2 emissions from China's international seaborne trade sector during the period of 2001—2016. Based on the freight transport volume and considering the various commodities, shipping modes can be categorized into liquid bulk shipping, dry bulk shipping, and containers. The specified CO_2 emissions were estimated referring to the considered shipping modes. The aggregated CO_2 emissions were characterized to figure out the features during the study period. The decomposition analysis adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method was introduced to investigate the key influencing factors that initiated an impact on the CO_2 emission changes in the China's international maritime activities. The results demonstrated that(1). The CO_2 emissions from China's international seaborne trade witnessed a significant increase between 2001 and 2016. The shortterm evolution trend did exhibit three different stages.(2) The factors of per capita GDP and population size were proved to be the positive contributors all the time. The per capita GDP was served as the major force, which reflected the close correlation between the CO_2 emissions and the economic development.(3) Energy intensity of vessels generated CO_2 emissions during the study period and it had become the most powerful driving factor for the future CO_2 emissions reduction in maritime transportation sector. The reduction of the marine transportation intensity appeared to be another inhibiting factor that contributed to the mitigation of the CO_2 emissions. And(4) Under the business-as-usual(BAU) scenario without launching the new policies, CO_2 emissions from China's international maritime transportation will keep on as an increase trend in the future. It is desirable for policy makers to develop future mitigation policies according to this work.
引文
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[37]Nelissen D,Faber J F.Economic Impacts of MRV of Fuel and Emissions in Maritime Transport[M].Delft:CE Delft,2014.
[38]Fedor D.Tracking global carbon revenues:a survey of carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade in the real world[J].Energy Policy,2016,96:50-77.
[39] Stochniol A. A New Market-Based CO2 Emission Reduction Scheme[R]. London:Supporting document for discussion of MEPC, 2007.
[40] Burel F, Taccani R, Zuliani N. Improving sustainability of maritime transport through utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG)for propulsion[J]. Energy, 2013, 57:412-420.
[2]Clarksons Research.Global Trade Information Services[EB/OL].(2017-01-20)[2018-09-03].http://www.clarksons.com/services/research/.
[3]Guo B,Geng Y,Franke B,et al.Uncovering China’s transport CO2emission patterns at the regional level[J].Energy Policy,2014,74:134-146.
[4]许士春,习蓉,何正霞.中国能源消耗碳排放的影响因素分析及政策启示[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):2-12.[Xu S C,Xi R,He ZX.Influential factors and policy implications of carbon emissions for energy consumption in China[J].Resources Science,2012,34(1):2-12.]
[5]Zhao X.,Zhang X.,Li N,et al.Decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions in China:a sectoral factor decomposition analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142:3500-3516.
[6]Psaraftis H N.Decarbonization of maritime transport:to be or not to be[J].Maritime Economics&Logistics,2018,(1):1-19.
[7]谢守红,蔡海亚,夏刚祥.中国交通运输业CO2排放的测算及影响因素[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(5):13-18.[Xie S H,Cai H Y,Xia G X.Calculation of the carbon emissions of Chinese transportation industry and the driving factors[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources&Environment,2016,30(5):13-18.]
[8]刘爽,赵明亮,包姹娜,等.基于交通结构发展情景分析的城市交通CO2排放测算研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(3):222-227.[Liu S,Zhao M L,Bao C N,et al.Carbon emission calculation for urban transport based on scenario analysis of traffic structure[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering&Information Technology,2015,15(3):222-227.]
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[10]Hao H,Liu Z,Zhao F,et al.Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles[J].Energy,2015,91:151-159.
[11]顾伟红,徐瑞华.中国国际海运温室气体排放预测[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2013,37(1):97-101.[Gu W H,Xu R H.Forecast greenhouse gas emissions from China's international shipping[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2013,37(1):97-101]
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[13]Hao H,Geng Y,Ou X.Estimating CO2emissions from water transportation of freight in China[J].International Journal of Shipping&Transport Logistics,2015,7(6):676-694.
[14]董军,张旭.中国工业部门能耗碳排放分解与低碳策略研究[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1856-1862.[Dong J,Zhang X.Decomposition of carbon emissions and low carbon strategies for industrial sector energy consumption in China[J].Resources Science,2010,32(10):1856-1862.]
[15]蒋金荷.中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):597-604.[Jiang J H.An evaluation and decomposition analysis of carbon emissions in China[J].Resources Science,2011,33(4):597-604.]
[16]Wang W W,Zhang M,Zhou M.Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2emissions in China[J].Energy,2011,36(10):5909-5915.
[17]喻洁,达亚彬,欧阳斌.基于LMDI分解方法的中国交通运输行业碳排放变化分析[J].中国公路学报,2015,28(10):112-119.[Yu J,Da Y B,Ouyang B.Analysis of carbon emission changes in China's transportation industry based on LMDI decomposition method[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2015,28(10):112-119.]
[18]吴开亚,何彩虹,王桂新,等.上海市交通能源消费碳排放的测算与分解分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):45-51.[Wu K Y,He C H,Wang G X,et al.Measurement and decomposition analysis on carbon emissions of transportation industry in Shanghai[J].Economic Geography,2012,32(11):45-51.]
[19]卢升荣,蒋惠园,刘瑶.交通运输业CO2排放区域差异及影响因素[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(1):32-39.[Lu S R,Jiang H Y,Liu Y.Regional disparities and influencing factors of CO2emission in transportation industry[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2017,17(1):32-39.]
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[21]International Maritime Organization.Third IMO GHG Study 2014[EB/OL].(2014-07-25)[2018-01-04].http://www.iadc.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/02/MEPC-67-6-INF3-2014-Final-Report-complete.pdf.
[22]Psaraftis H N,Kontovas C A.CO2emission statistics for the world commercial fleet[J].Wmu Journal of Maritime Affairs,2009,8(1):1-25.
[23]陈苏,胡浩.中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(7):93-100.[Chen S,Hu H.Study on the spatial-temporal changes and influence factors of greenhouse gases emission from livestock and poultry in China[J],China Population Resources&Environment,26(7):93-100.]
[24]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policy making in energy:which is the preferred method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[25]Ang B W,Liu N.Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(1):238-246.
[26]Clarksons Research.Shipping Intelligence Network[EB/OL].[2017-08-24].http://www.clarksons.com/services/research/.
[27]International Maritime Organization.Second IMO GHG Study 2009[EB/OL].(2010-03-11)[2018-09-03].http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Second IMOGHGStudy2009.pdf.
[28]Lee T C,Lam J S L,Lee P T W.Asian economic integration and maritime CO2emissions[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2016,43:226-237.
[29]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.]
[30]Clarksons Research.December 2016 China Intelligence Monthly[EB/OL].[2018-01-09].http://www.clarksons.com/services/research/.
[31]Liang Y,Niu D,Wang H,et al.Factors affecting transportation sector CO2emissions growth in China:an LMDI decomposition analysis[J].Sustainability,2017,9(10):1730.
[32]Andreoni V,Galmarini S.European CO2 emission trends:a decomposition analysis for water and aviation transport sectors[J].Energy,2012,45(1):595-602.
[33]UNCTAD.Review of Maritime Transport 2016[EB/OL].(2016-11-07)[2018-09-03].http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt2016_en.pdf.
[34]新华社.中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要[EB/OL].(2016-03-17)[2017-09-24].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-03/17/content_5054992.htm.[Xinhua Net.The13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China[EB/OL].(2016-03-17)[2017-09-24].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-03/17/content_5054992.htm.]
[35]董锁成,程昊,郭鹏,等.“一带一路”交通运输业格局及对策[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,(6):663-670.[Dong S C,Cheng H,Guo P,et al.Transportation industry patterns and strategy of the belt and road[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2016,(6):663-670.]
[36]国务院.国务院关于印发国家人口发展规划(2016-2030年)的通知[EB/OL].(2016-12-30)[2017-12-08].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/bgt/gwywj2/201701/a6dd45cf1660432c91a9ada5e758a4a2.shtml.[The State Council.The State Council on the Development of the National Population Development Plan(2016-2030)[EB/OL].(2016-12-30)[2017-12-08].http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/bgt/gwywj2/201701/a6dd45cf1660432c91a9ada5e758a4a2.shtml.]
[37]Nelissen D,Faber J F.Economic Impacts of MRV of Fuel and Emissions in Maritime Transport[M].Delft:CE Delft,2014.
[38]Fedor D.Tracking global carbon revenues:a survey of carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade in the real world[J].Energy Policy,2016,96:50-77.
[39] Stochniol A. A New Market-Based CO2 Emission Reduction Scheme[R]. London:Supporting document for discussion of MEPC, 2007.
[40] Burel F, Taccani R, Zuliani N. Improving sustainability of maritime transport through utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG)for propulsion[J]. Energy, 2013, 57:412-420.