长三角城市群物流业集聚与产业结构变迁——基于灰色关联分析
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摘要
运用灰色关联模型研究长三角城市群2003—2016年26个城市物流业集聚与产业结构变迁关系,发现长三角城市群物流业集聚度较高,但发展呈下降趋势。其中,上海、舟山、南京、合肥、芜湖物流业集聚度均值大于1. 25,该地区物流业高度集聚,专业化强,但26个城市发展不均衡,上海产业结构合理化度最高,浙江、安徽需要调整,江苏合理化度较高。长三角城市群产业结构高级化不断提升。除个别城市外,其他城市物流业集聚与产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化显著相关,但物流业集聚与产业结构合理化关联性更强,对加快长三角城市群物流业集聚,为促进产业结构优化升级提供借鉴。
The grey relative model was used to study the relationship between logistics industry cluster and industrial structure change in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2016. The results showed that the logistics industry cluster in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations had a high degree,but its development showed a downward trend. Among them,the average concentration degree of logistics industry was more than 1. 25 in Shanghai,Zhoushan,Nanjing,Hefei and Wuhu. The logistics industry in the region was highly concentrated and professional. The development of logistics industry cluster was not balanced in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. Shanghai had the highest industrial structure rationalization,Zhejiang and Anhui needed to adjust industrial structure rationalization,and Jiangsu had a higher degree of rationalization. The degree of industrial structure optimization was upgraded continuously in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. In addition to individual cities,the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure rationalization,and industrial structure optimization had significant correlation in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. However,the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure rationalization had stronger correlation. The research provided references for accelerating the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure promoting optimization and upgrading in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations.
The grey relative model was used to study the relationship between logistics industry cluster and industrial structure change in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2016. The results showed that the logistics industry cluster in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations had a high degree,but its development showed a downward trend. Among them,the average concentration degree of logistics industry was more than 1. 25 in Shanghai,Zhoushan,Nanjing,Hefei and Wuhu. The logistics industry in the region was highly concentrated and professional. The development of logistics industry cluster was not balanced in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. Shanghai had the highest industrial structure rationalization,Zhejiang and Anhui needed to adjust industrial structure rationalization,and Jiangsu had a higher degree of rationalization. The degree of industrial structure optimization was upgraded continuously in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. In addition to individual cities,the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure rationalization,and industrial structure optimization had significant correlation in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations. However,the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure rationalization had stronger correlation. The research provided references for accelerating the logistics industry cluster and industrial structure promoting optimization and upgrading in the Changjiang River Delta urban agglomerations.
引文
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[21]关高峰,董千里,白泽平.中部六省物流产业集聚与经济关联性实证研究[J].物流技术,2012,(17)∶245-248.
[22]陈国宏,任国岩.长三角物流产业集聚水平测算及对策研究[J].浙江万里学院学报,2016,29(2)∶14-18.
[2]丁俊发.中国物流业的经济学思考——纪念改革开放以来中国物流业发展30年[J].中国流通经济,2008,22(11)∶8-11.
[3]王非,冯耕中.我国物流集聚区内涵与形成机理研究[J].统计与决策,2010,(24)∶44-47.
[4]Lee H,Yang H M. Strategies for a Global Logistics and Economic Hub:Incheon International Airport[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2003,9(2)∶113-121.
[5]Kayikci Y. A Conceptual Model for Intermodal Freight Logistics Centre Location Decisions[J]. Procedia-social and Behavioral Sciences,2010,2(3)∶6297-6311.
[6]王珍珍,陈功玉.我国物流产业集聚对制造业工业增加值影响的实证研究——基于省级面板数据的分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2009,11(6)∶49-56.
[7]朱慧,周根贵,任国岩.制造业与物流业的空间共同集聚研究——以中部六省为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(11)∶117-124.
[8]乐小兵.现代物流与产业结构升级关联机制研究[J].物流技术,2013,32(4)∶198-200.
[9]郭利锋,陈新国.我国物流发展、产业结构升级与经济增长动态影响研究[J].商业经济研究,2014,(25)∶4-7.
[10]宋刚,冯茹.辽宁港口物流与产业结构协调发展模式研究[J].改革与开放,2017,(5)∶23-25.
[11]何岚.物流产业集聚对产业结构优化的影响——基于长三角城市群16地市面板数据的实证研究[D].上海:上海师范大学硕士学位论文,2016.
[12]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5)∶4-16,31.
[13]王耀斌,蒋金萍,孙传玲.基于灰色关联分析的甘肃省旅游收入影响因素研究[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(7)∶868-871.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.灰色系统理论及其应用(第6版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.
[15]赵迎军.民工“流动”与粮食价格波动关联性分析[J].管理世界,2016,(6)∶176-177.
[16]袁周,方志耕.灰色主成分评价模型的构建及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(8)∶2086-2090.
[17]高康,王茂春,张步阔.长江经济带物流业集聚的时空格局与影响因素研究[J].资源开发与市场,2018,34(9)∶1296-1303.
[18]丁俊发.上海自贸区给物流业发展带来的机遇与挑战[J].中国流通经济,2014,(11)∶76-77.
[19]蔡海亚,谢守红.长江三角洲物流发展及与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].北京交通大学学报,2016,15(2)∶89-96.
[20]江心英,赵爽.苏、浙产业结构比较研究[J].财经理论研究,2017,(5)∶54-64.
[21]关高峰,董千里,白泽平.中部六省物流产业集聚与经济关联性实证研究[J].物流技术,2012,(17)∶245-248.
[22]陈国宏,任国岩.长三角物流产业集聚水平测算及对策研究[J].浙江万里学院学报,2016,29(2)∶14-18.