四川省暴雨过程强度及损失评估方法研究
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摘要
利用1961—2015年四川省逐日降水资料、典型年份各区县暴雨灾情、GDP、人口和耕地面积资料,采用加权求和法建立基于归一化的过程降水量、最大日降水量和过程持续天数的暴雨综合强度指数及等级标准;基于经济损失率、人口受灾率和作物受灾率指标,采用灰色关联法确定灾害严重程度;利用相关分析法分别建立基于暴雨综合强度指数和基于暴雨灰色关联度的灾害损失评估模型,分析了各地不同重现期暴雨可能造成的经济损失率。结果表明:暴雨综合强度指数能够较好地揭示不同强度等级暴雨的时频和空间分布特征,暴雨过程造成的损失与暴雨综合强度指数和暴雨灰色关联度均显著相关,两种损失评估模型的拟合与试评估效果均较好,5 a一遇暴雨的经济损失率多在3%以下,50 a一遇暴雨的经济损失率多在3%以上,盆地北部和西部山区在5%以上,局地可达7%～9%。
By using daily precipitation data in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2015, data during typical years on the rainstorm disaster, GDP,population and cultivated area, and the method of weighted summation based on normalized process precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and the duration, the comprehensive strength index and the grade standard of rainstorm are established. Based on the economic loss rate,population affected rate and crop affected rate indices, the grey correlation method is used to determine the disaster degree. The relational analysis method is used to establish the disaster loss assessment model based on the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, respectively. The possible economic loss rate caused by different return periods of rainstorm is studied, too.The result shows that the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm can reveal the time-frequency and spatial distribution characteristics of heavy rainfall in different intensities. The loss caused by rainstorm process is significantly related to the comprehensive strength index and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, and the results of both the two kinds of loss assessment models are good. The economic loss rate of rainstorm of 5-year return period is mostly below 3%, and that of 50-year return period is above 3%. It in the north and west of Sichuan basin is more than 5%, and in some areas it could reach 7% to 9%.
By using daily precipitation data in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2015, data during typical years on the rainstorm disaster, GDP,population and cultivated area, and the method of weighted summation based on normalized process precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and the duration, the comprehensive strength index and the grade standard of rainstorm are established. Based on the economic loss rate,population affected rate and crop affected rate indices, the grey correlation method is used to determine the disaster degree. The relational analysis method is used to establish the disaster loss assessment model based on the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, respectively. The possible economic loss rate caused by different return periods of rainstorm is studied, too.The result shows that the comprehensive strength index of rainstorm can reveal the time-frequency and spatial distribution characteristics of heavy rainfall in different intensities. The loss caused by rainstorm process is significantly related to the comprehensive strength index and the grey correlation degree of rainstorm, and the results of both the two kinds of loss assessment models are good. The economic loss rate of rainstorm of 5-year return period is mostly below 3%, and that of 50-year return period is above 3%. It in the north and west of Sichuan basin is more than 5%, and in some areas it could reach 7% to 9%.
引文
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[13]谢五三,田红,卢燕宇.基于FloodArea模型的大通河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):384-387
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[15]王博,崔春光,彭涛,等.暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的研究现状与进展[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(3):281-286
[16]邓兴旺,张涛,吴涛涛.利用数值预报产品制作府环河流域面雨量预报试验[J].暴雨灾害,2008,27(1):68-78
[2]王莉萍,王秀荣,王维国.中国区域降水过程综合强度评估方法研究及应用[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(2):186-194
[3]邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,等.福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364
[4]韩秀君,孙晓巍,李爽,等.辽宁暴雨致灾指标及灾害影响预评估[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(6):80-84
[5]蔡新玲,路岑之,程肖侠.陕西省区域性暴雨过程综合评估方法研究[J].陕西气象,2012(6):16-19
[6]黄治勇,龙利民,邵末兰,等.类比法在暴雨灾害损失定量预估中的应用[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(2):246-250
[7]陈亚宁,杨思全.自然灾害的灰色关联灾情评估模型及应用研究[J].地理科学进展,1999,18(2):158-162
[8]刘伟东,扈海波,程丛兰,等.灰色关联度方法在大风和暴雨灾害损失评估中的应用[J].气象科技,2007,35(4):563-566
[9]杨帅,苏筠.县域暴雨洪涝灾害损失快速评估方法探讨__以湖南省为例[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(5):156-153
[10]王秀荣,吕终亮,王莉萍,等.一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究—以京津冀“7.21”暴雨事件为例[J].气象,2016,42(2):213-220
[11]袭祝香,纪玲玲,张硕.吉林省重大暴雨过程影响损失评估模型的建立[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(5):141-145
[12]史瑞琴,刘宁,李兰,等.暴雨洪涝淹没模型在洪灾损失评估中的应用[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(4):379-384
[13]谢五三,田红,卢燕宇.基于FloodArea模型的大通河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):384-387
[14]《中国气象灾害大典》编委会.中国气象灾害大典:四川卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2006, 64-207
[15]王博,崔春光,彭涛,等.暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的研究现状与进展[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(3):281-286
[16]邓兴旺,张涛,吴涛涛.利用数值预报产品制作府环河流域面雨量预报试验[J].暴雨灾害,2008,27(1):68-78