观点动力学视角下基于意见领袖的网络舆情反转研究
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摘要
舆情反转是网络突发事件与热点事件中的一种重要现象。为探究网络舆情反转现象的内在机理,发掘舆情反转事件的演化规律,提出了一种观点动力学视角下基于意见领袖的观点演化模型。以意见领袖为切入点,基于无标度网络结构改进经典有界信任的HK模型,在观点更新中引入意见领袖的作用。运用社会网络分析理论的中心性指标识别意见领袖,对意见领袖引导下的观点演化进行仿真实验。选取新浪微博上的舆情反转案例,对模型仿真结果进行验证。实验结果表明,意见领袖对观点演化结果起着关键性的作用,能够引导群体的观点发生逆转,利用改进的模型能够模拟网络舆情反转事件的演化进程。
Opinion reversion is an important phenomenon in network emergencies and hot events.In order to explore the internal mechanism and the evolution law of public opinion reversion,we propose an opinion evolution model based on opinion leaders from the perspective of opinion dynamics.The model is applied to simulate the evolution process of public opinion under the guidance of opinion leaders.We take opinion leaders into account,improve the HK model and use social network analysis method to identify the opinion leaders based on scale-free network structure.To verify the simulation results we select the reversal case on sina twitter.The results show that opinion leaders play a key role in the evolution of opinion,which can guide the public opinion to reverse.The results also indicate that the improved model can simulate the evolution process of network opinion reversion.
Opinion reversion is an important phenomenon in network emergencies and hot events.In order to explore the internal mechanism and the evolution law of public opinion reversion,we propose an opinion evolution model based on opinion leaders from the perspective of opinion dynamics.The model is applied to simulate the evolution process of public opinion under the guidance of opinion leaders.We take opinion leaders into account,improve the HK model and use social network analysis method to identify the opinion leaders based on scale-free network structure.To verify the simulation results we select the reversal case on sina twitter.The results show that opinion leaders play a key role in the evolution of opinion,which can guide the public opinion to reverse.The results also indicate that the improved model can simulate the evolution process of network opinion reversion.
引文
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[20]朱张祥,刘咏梅.在线社交网络谣言传播的仿真研究---基于聚类系数可变的无标度网络环境[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2016,13(2):74-82.Zhu Zhangxiang,Liu Yongmei.Simulation study of propagation of rumor in online social network based on scale-free network with tunable clustering[J].Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2016,13(2):74-82.
[21]Barabasi A L,Albert R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J].Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.
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[24]Lazarsfield P.The People’s Choice[M].New York:Columba University Press,1948:434-445.
[25]徐恪,张赛,陈昊,等.在线社会网络的测量与分析[J].计算机学报,2014,37(1):165-188.Xu Ke,Zhang Qian,Chen Hao,et al.Measurement and analysis of online social networks[J].Chinese Journal of Computers,2014,37(1):165-188.
[26]Van Der Merwe R,Van Heerden G.Finding and utilizing opinion leaders:social networks and the power of relationships[J].South African Journal of Business Management,2009,40(3):65-75.
[27]谌志群,徐宁,王荣波.基于主题演化图的网络论坛热点跟踪[J].情报科学,2013,31(3):147-150.Chen Zhiqun,Xu Ning,Wang Rongbo.BBS hot topic tracking based on theme evolution graph[J].Information Science,2013,31(3):147-150.
[28]Singh P,Sreenivasan S,Szymanski B K.Accelerating consensus on co-evolving networks:the effect of committed individuals[J].Physical Review E,2012,85(4):1324-1340.
[29]Barreira da Silva Rocha A.Social outcomes due to the interplay between language competition and ideology struggle[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,492:1340-1351.
[30]Biondo A E,Pluchino A,Rapisarda A.Modeling surveys effects in political competitions[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,503:714-726.
[2]韩旭.探析网络“舆论反转”现象出现的成因及对策---以“狗嘴下救女童系谎言”事件为例[J].西部学刊(新闻与传播),2016,(4):24-28.Han Xu.Research on the causes and countermeasures of the network"public opinion reversion"[J].Journal of Western,2016,(4):24-28.
[3]袁野,兰月新,张鹏,等.基于系统聚类的反转网络舆情分类及预测研究[J].情报科学,2017,35(9):54-60.Yuan Ye,Lan Yuexin,Zhang Peng,et al.Research on the classification and forecast of reversal network public opinionbased on cluster analysis[J].Information Science,2017,35(9):54-60.
[4]夏一雪,兰月新,刘茉,等.大数据环境下网络舆情反转机理与预测研究[J].情报杂志,2018,37(8):92-96.Xia Yixue,Lan Yuexin,Liu Mo,et al.Inversion mechanism and prediction of network public opinion in big data environment[J].Journal of Intelligence,2018,37(8):92-96.
[5]敖阳利.传播学视阈下舆情反转事件研究[J].新闻研究导刊,2015,6(23):138-139.Ao Yangli.Research on the reversion of public opinion in the perspective of communication[J].Journal of News Research,2015,6(23):138-139.
[6]史若天.从突发事件网络舆情的流变过程浅析网民心理特征---以“5·3成都女司机被打”事件为例[J].新媒体研究,2016,2(12):16-17.Shi Ruotian.Analyzing the psychological characteristics of netizens from the process of emergency network sensation[J].New Media Research,2016,2(12):16-17.
[7]梁舞,李劭强.自媒体环境下议程设置的弱化分析---基于舆论领域反转、搭车、站队的视角[J].管理观察,2015,(33):24-26.Liang Wu,Li Shaoqiang.Weakening analysis of agenda setting in the media environment[J].Management Observer,2015,(33):24-26.
[8]黄远,刘怡君.网络舆论反转效应研究[J].管理评论,2016,28(8):71-78.Huang Yuan,Liu Yijun.Studies on online public opinion inversion effect[J].Management Review,2016,28(8):71-78.
[9]张华.网络舆情反转现象中的“参照点效应”---基于对“大学生掏鸟窝获刑十年半”微博舆情的研究[J].新闻界,2016,(7):28-32.Zhang Hua."Reference point effect"in the network reversal phenomenon[J].Journalism and Mass Communication Monthly,2016,(7):28-32.
[10]王玉龙.舆情反转:突发事件过程中网络群体极化的角色研究---基于“天价鱼事件”的分析[J].电子政务,2016,(5):16-24.Wang Yulong.Opinion reversion:the role of network group polarization in the process of emergencies.E-Government,2016,(5):16-24.
[11]Corning P A.The re-emergence of"emergence":a venerable concept in search of a theory[J].Complexity,2010,7(6):18-30.
[12]王龙,田野,杜金铭.社会网络上的观念动力学[J].中国科学:信息科学,2018,48(1):3-23.Wang Long,Tian Ye,Du Jinming.Opinion dynamics on social networks[J].Scientia Sinica(Informationis),2018,48(1):3-23.
[13]Ronzanova L,Boguna M.Dynamics properties of the herding voter model with and without noise[J].Physical Review E,2017,96(1):1-8.
[14]Krawiecki A.Stochastic resonance in the majority vote model on regular and small-world lattices[J].International Journal of Modern Physics B,2017,31(29):1-14.
[15]Lima F W S.Transition under noise in the Sznajd model on square lattice[J].International Journal of Modern Physics C,2016,27(3):1-8.
[16]Hegselmann R,Krause U.Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence:models,analysis and simulation[J].Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation,2002,5(3):1-34.
[17]Deffuant G,Neau D,Amblard F.Mixing beliefs among interacting agents[J].Advances in Complex Systems,2000,3(1):87-98.
[18]Krueger T,Szwabinski J,Weron T.Conformity,anticonformity and polarization of opinions:insights from a mathematical model of opinion dynamics[J].Entropy,2017,19(7):371-392.
[19]Castellano C,Fortunato S,Loreto V.Statistical physics of social dynamics[J].Review of Modern Physics,2007,81(2):591-646.
[20]朱张祥,刘咏梅.在线社交网络谣言传播的仿真研究---基于聚类系数可变的无标度网络环境[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2016,13(2):74-82.Zhu Zhangxiang,Liu Yongmei.Simulation study of propagation of rumor in online social network based on scale-free network with tunable clustering[J].Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2016,13(2):74-82.
[21]Barabasi A L,Albert R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J].Science,1999,286(5439):509-512.
[22]Newman M E J.The structure and founction of complex networks[J].SIAM Review,2003,45(2):167-256.
[23]Albi G,Pareschi L,Zanella M.Opinion dynamics over complex network:kinetic modeling and numerical methods[J].Kinetic and Related Models,2017,10(1):1-32.
[24]Lazarsfield P.The People’s Choice[M].New York:Columba University Press,1948:434-445.
[25]徐恪,张赛,陈昊,等.在线社会网络的测量与分析[J].计算机学报,2014,37(1):165-188.Xu Ke,Zhang Qian,Chen Hao,et al.Measurement and analysis of online social networks[J].Chinese Journal of Computers,2014,37(1):165-188.
[26]Van Der Merwe R,Van Heerden G.Finding and utilizing opinion leaders:social networks and the power of relationships[J].South African Journal of Business Management,2009,40(3):65-75.
[27]谌志群,徐宁,王荣波.基于主题演化图的网络论坛热点跟踪[J].情报科学,2013,31(3):147-150.Chen Zhiqun,Xu Ning,Wang Rongbo.BBS hot topic tracking based on theme evolution graph[J].Information Science,2013,31(3):147-150.
[28]Singh P,Sreenivasan S,Szymanski B K.Accelerating consensus on co-evolving networks:the effect of committed individuals[J].Physical Review E,2012,85(4):1324-1340.
[29]Barreira da Silva Rocha A.Social outcomes due to the interplay between language competition and ideology struggle[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,492:1340-1351.
[30]Biondo A E,Pluchino A,Rapisarda A.Modeling surveys effects in political competitions[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2018,503:714-726.