基于Event模型的冲突风险新算法
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摘要
鉴于管制过程中对航空器冲突问题发展的研究,对经典事件模型的结构进行改进,用球形曲面间隔层代替传统的平面间隔层,结合扩展碰撞盒概率关系比计算冲突风险,提高了模板与实际航空器运行状态的切合度。并以模拟航空器飞行数据进行仿真,对改进模型的冲突风险与原模型的进行比较评估,结果表明该算法正确。
This paper is aimed at introducing an innovated method for the conflict risk assessment in orientation of the development of conflicts in the process of regulation. For this purpose,we have managed to improve the structure of the classical event model as well as the method for the collision risk assessment in replacing the traditional planar spacer layer by the spherical sur-face spacer layer so as to improve the match between the template and the actual aircraft operating conditions. As a matter of fact,in the application of the proposed model,there comes a problem involving 2 sections. The first of the sections may involve the area of the expanded collision box,which involves a risk calculation formula. To solve the problem,it is necessary to quote a definition known as the probabilistic relationship ratio of the extended collision box. In comparison with the first problem,the second problem involve a new calculation formula of the conflict risk,which has to be solved based on the risk calculation principle derived from the original Event risk model. On the other hand,the conflicting risk of the improved model has to be compared with the original model in combination of the ratio as well as the simulated aircraft flight data cited. However,the relative percentage of the model pre-&-pro improvement has been found a slight increase with the increase of the distance in terms of the comparison chart,in which the risk of the new model can generally be found of a 20% lower than the original model. And,in final analysis,the curve we can provide indicates that the methodology can effectively assess the risk of conflict in the flight and make it detected in time before the conflict would take place.Therefore,it would be possible for us to jump up to make conclusion that the new model algorithm helps to increase the accuracy of prediction of conflict risks,verify the correctness of the method,which is expected to provide better decision-making and effective support for the air-traffic managers and controllers.
This paper is aimed at introducing an innovated method for the conflict risk assessment in orientation of the development of conflicts in the process of regulation. For this purpose,we have managed to improve the structure of the classical event model as well as the method for the collision risk assessment in replacing the traditional planar spacer layer by the spherical sur-face spacer layer so as to improve the match between the template and the actual aircraft operating conditions. As a matter of fact,in the application of the proposed model,there comes a problem involving 2 sections. The first of the sections may involve the area of the expanded collision box,which involves a risk calculation formula. To solve the problem,it is necessary to quote a definition known as the probabilistic relationship ratio of the extended collision box. In comparison with the first problem,the second problem involve a new calculation formula of the conflict risk,which has to be solved based on the risk calculation principle derived from the original Event risk model. On the other hand,the conflicting risk of the improved model has to be compared with the original model in combination of the ratio as well as the simulated aircraft flight data cited. However,the relative percentage of the model pre-&-pro improvement has been found a slight increase with the increase of the distance in terms of the comparison chart,in which the risk of the new model can generally be found of a 20% lower than the original model. And,in final analysis,the curve we can provide indicates that the methodology can effectively assess the risk of conflict in the flight and make it detected in time before the conflict would take place.Therefore,it would be possible for us to jump up to make conclusion that the new model algorithm helps to increase the accuracy of prediction of conflict risks,verify the correctness of the method,which is expected to provide better decision-making and effective support for the air-traffic managers and controllers.
引文
[1] BROOKER P. Longitudinal collision risk for ATC track systems:a hazardous event model[J]. Journal of Navigation,2006,59(1):55-70.
[2] XU Xiaohao(徐肖豪),WANG Zhenyu(王振宇),ZHAO Hongsheng(赵鸿盛). Improved lateral collision risk model based on Event[J]. Journal of Civilaviation University of China(中国民航大学学报),2008,26(3):1-4.
[3] ZHAO Yifei(赵嶷飞),XU Yongxiang(徐永祥),WANG Hongyong(王红勇). On the air traffic conflict risk calculation method based on the track deviation study[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2016,16(3):16-19.
[4] WANG Taobo(王涛波),WANG Chao(王超),TIAN Meng(田猛). Free flight conflict risk based on expanded moore neighborhood[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology(交通运输系统工程与信息),2017,17(2):205-211.
[5] ZHANG Zhaoning(张兆宁),WANG Lili(王莉莉),LI Dongbin(李冬宾). Introduction to safety assessment of flight interval(飞行间隔安全评估引论)[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[6] HSU D A. The evaluation of aircraft collision probabilities at intersecting air routes[J]. Journal of Navigation,1981,34(1):78-102.
[7] CAO Xingwu(曹兴武),ZHANG Zhaoning(张兆宁).Cross route collision risk assessment based on improved Event model[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China(中国民航大学学报),2015,33(3):1-4.
[2] XU Xiaohao(徐肖豪),WANG Zhenyu(王振宇),ZHAO Hongsheng(赵鸿盛). Improved lateral collision risk model based on Event[J]. Journal of Civilaviation University of China(中国民航大学学报),2008,26(3):1-4.
[3] ZHAO Yifei(赵嶷飞),XU Yongxiang(徐永祥),WANG Hongyong(王红勇). On the air traffic conflict risk calculation method based on the track deviation study[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2016,16(3):16-19.
[4] WANG Taobo(王涛波),WANG Chao(王超),TIAN Meng(田猛). Free flight conflict risk based on expanded moore neighborhood[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology(交通运输系统工程与信息),2017,17(2):205-211.
[5] ZHANG Zhaoning(张兆宁),WANG Lili(王莉莉),LI Dongbin(李冬宾). Introduction to safety assessment of flight interval(飞行间隔安全评估引论)[M]. Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[6] HSU D A. The evaluation of aircraft collision probabilities at intersecting air routes[J]. Journal of Navigation,1981,34(1):78-102.
[7] CAO Xingwu(曹兴武),ZHANG Zhaoning(张兆宁).Cross route collision risk assessment based on improved Event model[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China(中国民航大学学报),2015,33(3):1-4.