欧亚经济联盟宏观货币政策协调的必要性及障碍分析
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摘要
本文在分析欧亚经济联盟演变过程和发展现状的基础上,提出了欧亚经济联盟未来发展所面临的主要障碍,即存在大量非关税壁垒,特别是存在金融领域非关税壁垒的论点。然后基于对该区域缺乏宏观货币协调政策原因的分析,指出其造成的后果。在此基础上得出应消除金融领域的非关税壁垒,即应建立有效的宏观货币政策协调的结论,并提出相应的建议。
Based on the analysis of the evolution process and development status of the EAEU,this paper puts forward the main obstacles to the future development of the EAEU,that is,there are a lot of non-tariff barriers,especially in the financial field.Then based on the analysis of the reasons for the lack of macro-monetary policies coordination in the region,the results are obtained. On this basis,it is proposed that the non-tariff barriers in the financial field should be eliminated,that is,the conclusion of effective macro-monetary policy coordination should be established,and give the corresponding cuntermeasures at last.
Based on the analysis of the evolution process and development status of the EAEU,this paper puts forward the main obstacles to the future development of the EAEU,that is,there are a lot of non-tariff barriers,especially in the financial field.Then based on the analysis of the reasons for the lack of macro-monetary policies coordination in the region,the results are obtained. On this basis,it is proposed that the non-tariff barriers in the financial field should be eliminated,that is,the conclusion of effective macro-monetary policy coordination should be established,and give the corresponding cuntermeasures at last.
引文
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[17]Karaganov S.(Ed.).Toward the Great Ocean 3:Creating Central Eurasia.The Silk Road Economic Belt and the Priorities of the Eurasian states’joint Development.Valdai Discussion Club Analytical Report[R].Moscow:Valdai Discussion Club(In Russian),2015.
[18]Lyailya Nurgaliyeva.Kazakhstan’s Cconomic Soft Balancing Policy vis-à-vis Russia:From the Eurasian Union to the Economic Cooperation with Turkey[J].Journal of Eurasian Studies,2016(7):92-105.
(1)数据来源:欧亚开发银行,2016。
(2)数据来源:欧亚开发银行,2016。
[2]王维然,王京梁.试析欧亚经济联盟的发展前景[J].现代国际关系,2015(8):51-56.
[3]李自国.欧亚经济联盟:绩效、问题、前景[J].欧亚经济,2016(2):2-17.
[4]宫艳华.欧亚经济联盟的规则、成效与前景[J].西伯利亚研究,2017(6):41-44.
[5]Dabrowski M..Currency Crises in Post-Soviet Economies-a Never Ending Story[J].Russian Journal of Economics,2016(3):302-326.
[6]Moiseev S..Russian-Belarusian Currency Integration:The Paradigm of an Optimal Currency Area[R].Moscow:Moscow Stock Exchange(In Russian),2000.
[7]Pankratov A..Modelling Integration of Currency Markets in the CIS[D].Ph D Thesis.Rostovon-Don:South-Russian State Technical University(In Russian),2008.
[8]Balashov D..Establishment of a Currency Union within Regional Economic Integration[D].Ph D Thesis.Moscow:Moscow University for Industry and Finance(In Russian),2011.
[9]Knobel A.&Mironov A..Assessment of the CIS Countries Readiness for Creation of a Currency Union[J].Journal of the New Economic Association(In Russian).2015(1):76-101.
[10]Schiff Maurice&Winters L.Alan.Regional Integration and Development[R].Washington:World Bank and Oxford Press,2003:187.
[11]秦放鸣,冀晓刚.丝绸之路经济带建设与欧亚经济联盟对接合作研究[J].俄罗斯东欧中亚研究,2015(4):34-40.
[12]Vinokurov E.,Demidenko M.,Pelipas I.,Tochitskaya I.,Shymanovich G.,Lipin,A.&Movchan V..Estimating the Economic Effects of Reducing Non-tariff Barriers in the EEU(Report 29)[R].St.Petersburg:Eurasian Development Bank,2015.
[13]方琢,李沛含.欧亚经济联盟对中国与中亚经贸合作的影响——以哈萨克斯坦为例[J].国际经济合作,2018(5):41-45.
[14]Wilson A..Survival of the Richest:How Oligarchs Block Reform in Ukraine(Policy Brief No.160)[R].European Council of Foreign Relations,2016:4.
[15]亚历山大·利布曼.乌克兰危机、俄经济危机和欧亚经济联盟[J].俄罗斯研究,2015(3):37-57.
[16]罗伯特·蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集(第五卷)[M].向松祚译,北京:中国金融出版社,2003:56-57.
[17]Karaganov S.(Ed.).Toward the Great Ocean 3:Creating Central Eurasia.The Silk Road Economic Belt and the Priorities of the Eurasian states’joint Development.Valdai Discussion Club Analytical Report[R].Moscow:Valdai Discussion Club(In Russian),2015.
[18]Lyailya Nurgaliyeva.Kazakhstan’s Cconomic Soft Balancing Policy vis-à-vis Russia:From the Eurasian Union to the Economic Cooperation with Turkey[J].Journal of Eurasian Studies,2016(7):92-105.
(1)数据来源:欧亚开发银行,2016。
(2)数据来源:欧亚开发银行,2016。