基于阿里亚斯烈度估值的概率性地震危险性分析——以四川丹棱县及其周缘为例
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摘要
以编制《中国地震动参数区划图》时所构建的地震潜在震源区模型和地震活动性模型为基本输入,在四川省丹棱县及其周缘地区开展基于阿里亚斯烈度的概率地震危险性分析,计算50年超越概率10%的阿里亚斯烈度(Arias Intensity,Ia)。结果表明:丹棱县及其周缘绝大部分地区的Ia值都在0.11m/s以上,部分地区在0.32m/s甚至0.54m/s以上,具有较高的地震诱发滑坡风险,应当加强人员密集区的地震诱发滑坡危险性评估。根据不同Ia预测方程计算得到的Ia分布有较大差异,因此在计算Ia时应考虑多个Ia预测方程,对最终结果进行加权平均,以减小Ia结果的不确定性。同时还发现Ia值与1.0s的谱加速度具有很好的相关性,这也印证了Ia和1.0s谱加速度与砂土液化的相关性。
Arias Intensity is a ground motion parameter that contains amplitudes,frequencies,and duration of ground motion.It is more reliable in some predictions of seismic damage than the parameters that only depend on the amplitude of ground motion.Scientists have shown that Arias Intensity has a strong correlation with landslides induced by earthquakes.This study presents a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of the Arias Intensity in Danling County,Sichuan Province using a seismic source model and the seismicity model established by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.The results show that the Ia value for most of Danling County and its surrounding area is above 0.11 m/s.Some parts of the area has a value of 0.32 m/s.Some even has more than 0.54 m/s,where a relatively high hazard of earthquake-induced landslides can be found.Hence,we should strengthen the risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides in personnel concentration areas.An obvious difference is found in the calculation of the Iadistribution according to different Iaprediction equations.Therefore,we should consider more than one Ia prediction equation when calculating the Ia value.The weighted average of the final results is derived to reduce the uncertainty of the Iavalue.We also find a strong correlation between Iaand spectral acceleration(t=1.0 s),which confirm the correlation between sand liquefaction and Ia.
Arias Intensity is a ground motion parameter that contains amplitudes,frequencies,and duration of ground motion.It is more reliable in some predictions of seismic damage than the parameters that only depend on the amplitude of ground motion.Scientists have shown that Arias Intensity has a strong correlation with landslides induced by earthquakes.This study presents a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of the Arias Intensity in Danling County,Sichuan Province using a seismic source model and the seismicity model established by the Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China.The results show that the Ia value for most of Danling County and its surrounding area is above 0.11 m/s.Some parts of the area has a value of 0.32 m/s.Some even has more than 0.54 m/s,where a relatively high hazard of earthquake-induced landslides can be found.Hence,we should strengthen the risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides in personnel concentration areas.An obvious difference is found in the calculation of the Iadistribution according to different Iaprediction equations.Therefore,we should consider more than one Ia prediction equation when calculating the Ia value.The weighted average of the final results is derived to reduce the uncertainty of the Iavalue.We also find a strong correlation between Iaand spectral acceleration(t=1.0 s),which confirm the correlation between sand liquefaction and Ia.
引文
[1]STAFFORD P J,BERRILL J B,PETTINGA J R.New Predictive Equations for Arias Intensity from Crustal Earthquakes in New Zealand[J].J Seismol,2009,13:31-52.
[2]PIGGOTT R F,STAFFORD P J.A Predictive Model for Arias Intensity at Multiple Sites and Consideration of Spatial Correlations[J].Earthq Eng Struct Dynam,2012,41(3):431-451.
[3]TRAVASAROU T,BRAY J D.Empirical Attenuation Relationship for Arias Intensity[J].Earthq Eng Struct Dynam,2003,32:1133-1155.
[4]HARP E L,WILSON R C.Shaking Intensity Thresholds for Rock Falls and Slides:Evidence from 1987 Whittier Narrows and Superstition Hills Earthquake Strong-motion Records[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1995,85:1739-1757.
[5]KEEFER D K.Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes——A Historical Review[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[6]DEL Gaudio V,PIERRI P,WASOWSKI J.An Approach to Time-probabilistic Evaluation of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2003,93(2):557-569.
[7]JIBSON R W.Regression Models for Estimating Coseismic Landslide Displacement[J].Engineering Geology,2007,91:209-218.
[8]EGAN J A,ROSIDI D.Assessment of Earthquake-induced Liquefaction Using Ground-motion Energy Characteristics[C]//Proceedings of the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Auckland,New Zealand,1991.
[9]KAYEN R E,MITCHELL J K.Assessment of Liquefaction Potential During Earthquakes by Arias Intensity[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,1997,123:1162-1174.
[10]KRAMER S L,MITCHELL R A.Ground Motion Intensity Measures for Liquefaction Hazard Evaluation[J].Earthq Spectra,2006,22(2):413-438.
[11]KRAMER S L.Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,1996.
[12]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(6):818-827.XU Qiang,LI Weile.Distribution of Large-scale Landslides Induced by Thewenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2010,18(6):818-827.
[13]陈晓利,袁仁茂,庾露.Newmark方法在芦山地震诱发滑坡分布预测研究中的应用[J].地震地质,2013,35(3):661-670.CHEN Xiaoli,YUAN Renmao,YU Lu.Applying The Newmark Model to the Assessment of Earthquake-triggered Landslides During the Lushan Earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(3):661-670.
[14]白玉柱,徐锡伟,李铁明,等.芦山地震强地面运动频谱特征及致灾相关性分析[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):570-580.BAI Yuzhu,XU Xiwei,LI Tieming,et al.Spectrum Characteristics of Strong Ground Motion During the Lushan Earthquake and Correlation Analysis of the Resulting Disaster[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(4):570-580.
[15]ARIAS A.Measure of Earthquake Intensity,in Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants[M].Hansen R J,Ed.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press,Cambrige,Massachusetts,1970:438-483.
[16]LEE C T,HSIEH B S,SUNG C H,et al.Regional Arias Intensity Attenuation Relationship for Taiwan Considering vS30[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2012,102,129-142.
[17]CAMPBELL K W,BOZORGNIA Y.A Comparison of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Arias Intensity and Cumulative Absolute Velocity Developed Using a Consistent Database and Functional[J].Earthq Spectra,2012,28(3):931-941.
[18]高孟潭.GB 18306-2015《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.GAO Mengtan.A Handbook of GB18306-2015 Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China[M].Beijing:China Standard Press,2015.
[19]GUTENBERG B,RICHTER C F.Frequency of Earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1944,34:185-188.
[20]LIU J M,WANG T,WU S,et al.New Empirical Relationships Between Arias Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2016,106(5):1-9.
[21]WANG Chiyuen,DOUGLAS S Dreger,WANG Chungho,et al.Field Relations Among Coseismic Ground Motion,Water Level Change and Liquefaction for the 1999Chi-Chi(M W=7.5)Earthquake,Taiwan[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(17):1890.
[2]PIGGOTT R F,STAFFORD P J.A Predictive Model for Arias Intensity at Multiple Sites and Consideration of Spatial Correlations[J].Earthq Eng Struct Dynam,2012,41(3):431-451.
[3]TRAVASAROU T,BRAY J D.Empirical Attenuation Relationship for Arias Intensity[J].Earthq Eng Struct Dynam,2003,32:1133-1155.
[4]HARP E L,WILSON R C.Shaking Intensity Thresholds for Rock Falls and Slides:Evidence from 1987 Whittier Narrows and Superstition Hills Earthquake Strong-motion Records[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1995,85:1739-1757.
[5]KEEFER D K.Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes——A Historical Review[J].Surveys in Geophysics,2002,23:473-510.
[6]DEL Gaudio V,PIERRI P,WASOWSKI J.An Approach to Time-probabilistic Evaluation of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2003,93(2):557-569.
[7]JIBSON R W.Regression Models for Estimating Coseismic Landslide Displacement[J].Engineering Geology,2007,91:209-218.
[8]EGAN J A,ROSIDI D.Assessment of Earthquake-induced Liquefaction Using Ground-motion Energy Characteristics[C]//Proceedings of the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Auckland,New Zealand,1991.
[9]KAYEN R E,MITCHELL J K.Assessment of Liquefaction Potential During Earthquakes by Arias Intensity[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,1997,123:1162-1174.
[10]KRAMER S L,MITCHELL R A.Ground Motion Intensity Measures for Liquefaction Hazard Evaluation[J].Earthq Spectra,2006,22(2):413-438.
[11]KRAMER S L.Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,1996.
[12]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发大型滑坡分布规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(6):818-827.XU Qiang,LI Weile.Distribution of Large-scale Landslides Induced by Thewenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2010,18(6):818-827.
[13]陈晓利,袁仁茂,庾露.Newmark方法在芦山地震诱发滑坡分布预测研究中的应用[J].地震地质,2013,35(3):661-670.CHEN Xiaoli,YUAN Renmao,YU Lu.Applying The Newmark Model to the Assessment of Earthquake-triggered Landslides During the Lushan Earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(3):661-670.
[14]白玉柱,徐锡伟,李铁明,等.芦山地震强地面运动频谱特征及致灾相关性分析[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):570-580.BAI Yuzhu,XU Xiwei,LI Tieming,et al.Spectrum Characteristics of Strong Ground Motion During the Lushan Earthquake and Correlation Analysis of the Resulting Disaster[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(4):570-580.
[15]ARIAS A.Measure of Earthquake Intensity,in Seismic Design for Nuclear Power Plants[M].Hansen R J,Ed.Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press,Cambrige,Massachusetts,1970:438-483.
[16]LEE C T,HSIEH B S,SUNG C H,et al.Regional Arias Intensity Attenuation Relationship for Taiwan Considering vS30[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,2012,102,129-142.
[17]CAMPBELL K W,BOZORGNIA Y.A Comparison of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Arias Intensity and Cumulative Absolute Velocity Developed Using a Consistent Database and Functional[J].Earthq Spectra,2012,28(3):931-941.
[18]高孟潭.GB 18306-2015《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2015.GAO Mengtan.A Handbook of GB18306-2015 Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China[M].Beijing:China Standard Press,2015.
[19]GUTENBERG B,RICHTER C F.Frequency of Earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1944,34:185-188.
[20]LIU J M,WANG T,WU S,et al.New Empirical Relationships Between Arias Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2016,106(5):1-9.
[21]WANG Chiyuen,DOUGLAS S Dreger,WANG Chungho,et al.Field Relations Among Coseismic Ground Motion,Water Level Change and Liquefaction for the 1999Chi-Chi(M W=7.5)Earthquake,Taiwan[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(17):1890.