资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响:基于制度环境视角
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摘要
文章运用系统广义矩估计(SGMM)方法,从制度环境视角实证研究了资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响,并进一步考察了不同制度环境下,不同类型跨境资本放松管制对货币国际化影响的异质性。结果显示:第一,在考虑制度环境的背景下,资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响存在门槛效应,即当制度质量较低时,资本账户开放并不利于货币国际化进程的推进,随着制度质量的提高,资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响由负变为正;第二,不同类型跨境资本放松管制对货币国际化的影响方向不同,且随着制度环境的变化,这一影响效应的变化也各不相同,在制度环境较差的情形下,直接投资开放程度的提升不利于货币国际化水平的提高,制度环境的改善则可以降低这一负向效应甚至可能产生显著的正向效应,证券投资开放程度提升对货币国际化的影响与直接投资相反,而金融衍生品投资开放对货币国际化的影响则不显著。因此,中国在推进资本账户开放和人民币国际化的进程中,应不断加强国内制度环境建设,保持制度质量的提升与资本账户开放进程相协调、相匹配,同时审慎放松对不同类型资本的管制。
In this paper,we use the Systems Generalized Method of Moments( SGMM),based on the perspective of institutional environment,to empirically study the impact of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization. We further study different institutional environments,the heterogeneity of different types of cross-border capital opening degree on currency internationalization. The results show that,first,the improvement of institutional environment can significantly reduce the negative effect of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization. When the institutional quality is low,capital account liberalization is not conducive to the advancement of currency internationalization. With the improvement of institutional quality,the impact of capital account opening on currency internationalization has changed from negative to positive. Second,different types of crossborder capital opening degree influence currency internationalization in different directions,and with the change of institutional environment,this effect is also different: in the case of poor institutional environment,the improvement of the degree of openness of direct investment is not conducive to the improvement of the level of currency internationalization,while the improvement of the institutional environment can reduce this negative effect and may even produce a significant positive effect. The impact of the degree of securities investment liberalization on currency internationalization is opposite to that of direct investment,while the impact of financial derivatives investment liberalization on currency internationalization is not significant. Therefore,in the process of promoting the liberalization of capital account and internationalization of RMB,China should constantly strengthen the construction of domestic institutional environment and keep the improvement of system quality in line with the process of capital account liberalization.
In this paper,we use the Systems Generalized Method of Moments( SGMM),based on the perspective of institutional environment,to empirically study the impact of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization. We further study different institutional environments,the heterogeneity of different types of cross-border capital opening degree on currency internationalization. The results show that,first,the improvement of institutional environment can significantly reduce the negative effect of capital account liberalization on currency internationalization. When the institutional quality is low,capital account liberalization is not conducive to the advancement of currency internationalization. With the improvement of institutional quality,the impact of capital account opening on currency internationalization has changed from negative to positive. Second,different types of crossborder capital opening degree influence currency internationalization in different directions,and with the change of institutional environment,this effect is also different: in the case of poor institutional environment,the improvement of the degree of openness of direct investment is not conducive to the improvement of the level of currency internationalization,while the improvement of the institutional environment can reduce this negative effect and may even produce a significant positive effect. The impact of the degree of securities investment liberalization on currency internationalization is opposite to that of direct investment,while the impact of financial derivatives investment liberalization on currency internationalization is not significant. Therefore,in the process of promoting the liberalization of capital account and internationalization of RMB,China should constantly strengthen the construction of domestic institutional environment and keep the improvement of system quality in line with the process of capital account liberalization.
引文
[1] Aizenman J.. The Internationalization of the RMB,Capital Market Openness,and Financial Reforms in China[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 20943,2015.
[2] Blundell R,Bond S.. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[3] Chinn M,Frankel J.. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 11510,2005.
[4] Chinn M.. Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies[J]. Open Economies Review,2015,26(1):155-174.
[5] Chinn M,Ito H.. Capital Account Liberalization,Institutions and Financial Development:Cross Country Evidence[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 8967,2002.
[6] Eichengreen B,Kawai M.. Issues for Renminbi Internationalization:An Overview[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 454,2014.
[7] Eichengreen B,Panizza U,Gullapalli R.. Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Industry Growth:A Snthetic View[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2011,30(6):1090-1106.
[8] Frankel J.. Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents[J]. Journal of Economic Integration,2012,27(3):329-365.
[9] Huang Y,Wang D,Fan G.. Paths to a Reserve Currency:Internationalization of the Renminbi and Its Implications[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 482,2014.
[10] Ito H,Chinn M.. The Rise of the“Redback”and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization:An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 473,2014.
[11] Ito T.. A New Financial Order in Asia:Will a RMB bloc emerge?[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2017,(74):232-257.
[12] Kaufmann D,Aart K,Massimo M.. The Worldwide Governance Indicators:Methodology and Analytical Issues[J]. Hague Journal on the Rule of Law,2011,(3):220-246
[13] Lane P,Milesi-Ferretti G.. The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970~2004[J]. Journal of International Economics,2006,73(2):223-250.
[14] Lee J.. Will the Renminbi Emerge as an International Reserve Currency?[J]. The World Economy,2014,37(1):42-62.
[15] Nixon W,Hatzvi E,Wright M.. The Offshore Renminbi Market and Renminbi Internationalisation[A]. Song L,Garnaut R,Cai F,Johnston L. China’s Domestic Transformation in a Global Context[C]. Canberra:Australian National University Press,2015:271-295.
[16] Quinn D.. The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation[J]. American Political Science Review,1997,91(3):531-551.
[17] Xu,X,Guo,P.. Exchange Rate Appreciation Expectation,Importer's Behavior and Choice of Invoicing Currency[J]. China Finance Review International,2012,2(3):231-245.
[18]姜晶晶,孙科.基于动态面板数据的国际储备币种结构影响因素分析——兼论人民币成为国际储备货币的前景[J].金融研究,2015,(2):57-75.
[19]贾宪军.金融资本跨境流动与储备货币地位——基于日元经验的研究[J].国际金融研究,2014,(8):35-43.
[20]彭红枫,谭小玉.人民币国际化研究:程度测算与影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2017,(2):127-141.
[21]宋暄.货币影响力、金融脆弱度与资本账户开放——基于新兴市场国家的研究[J].金融论坛,2017,(10):53-66.
[22]徐国祥,蔡文靖.金融发展下资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响[J].国际金融研究,2018,(5):5-15.
[23]严佳佳,郭明华,何乐融.人民币国际化的制约:资本账户未开发还是金融市场欠发达[J].经济学家,2018,(8):67-74
[24]杨荣海.当前货币国际化进程中的资本账户开放路径效应分析[J].国际金融研究,2014,(4):50-61.
[25]杨荣海,李亚波.资本账户开放对人民币国际化“货币锚”地位的影响分析[J].经济研究,2017,(1):136-150.
[26]赵柯.工业竞争力、资本账户开放与货币国际化——德国马克的国际化为什么比日元成功[J].世界经济与政治,2013,(12):140-155.
(1)关于世界银行全球治理指标的构建过程及其他相关信息,详见Kaufmann等(2011)的研究。
(2)由于IMF的COFER数据库公布的澳大利亚元和加拿大元数据时间跨度为2012~2017年,人民币数据时间跨度为2016~2017年,故本文样本数据为非平衡面板数据。
(3)由于各成员加入欧元区的时间不同,故不同年份加权平均时所包含的成员数量也不同。
(1)本文的这一结论与赵柯(2013)、Eichengreen和kawai(2014)的研究结论一致,他们也指出简单地解除资本管制并非一定能推动货币国际化的进程,只有在国内制度环境较好的背景下,资本账户开放对货币国际化的促进作用才能有效发挥。
[2] Blundell R,Bond S.. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
[3] Chinn M,Frankel J.. Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 11510,2005.
[4] Chinn M.. Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies[J]. Open Economies Review,2015,26(1):155-174.
[5] Chinn M,Ito H.. Capital Account Liberalization,Institutions and Financial Development:Cross Country Evidence[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 8967,2002.
[6] Eichengreen B,Kawai M.. Issues for Renminbi Internationalization:An Overview[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 454,2014.
[7] Eichengreen B,Panizza U,Gullapalli R.. Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Industry Growth:A Snthetic View[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2011,30(6):1090-1106.
[8] Frankel J.. Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents[J]. Journal of Economic Integration,2012,27(3):329-365.
[9] Huang Y,Wang D,Fan G.. Paths to a Reserve Currency:Internationalization of the Renminbi and Its Implications[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 482,2014.
[10] Ito H,Chinn M.. The Rise of the“Redback”and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization:An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies[R]. ADBI Working Paper No. 473,2014.
[11] Ito T.. A New Financial Order in Asia:Will a RMB bloc emerge?[J]. Journal of International Money&Finance,2017,(74):232-257.
[12] Kaufmann D,Aart K,Massimo M.. The Worldwide Governance Indicators:Methodology and Analytical Issues[J]. Hague Journal on the Rule of Law,2011,(3):220-246
[13] Lane P,Milesi-Ferretti G.. The External Wealth of Nations Mark II:Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970~2004[J]. Journal of International Economics,2006,73(2):223-250.
[14] Lee J.. Will the Renminbi Emerge as an International Reserve Currency?[J]. The World Economy,2014,37(1):42-62.
[15] Nixon W,Hatzvi E,Wright M.. The Offshore Renminbi Market and Renminbi Internationalisation[A]. Song L,Garnaut R,Cai F,Johnston L. China’s Domestic Transformation in a Global Context[C]. Canberra:Australian National University Press,2015:271-295.
[16] Quinn D.. The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation[J]. American Political Science Review,1997,91(3):531-551.
[17] Xu,X,Guo,P.. Exchange Rate Appreciation Expectation,Importer's Behavior and Choice of Invoicing Currency[J]. China Finance Review International,2012,2(3):231-245.
[18]姜晶晶,孙科.基于动态面板数据的国际储备币种结构影响因素分析——兼论人民币成为国际储备货币的前景[J].金融研究,2015,(2):57-75.
[19]贾宪军.金融资本跨境流动与储备货币地位——基于日元经验的研究[J].国际金融研究,2014,(8):35-43.
[20]彭红枫,谭小玉.人民币国际化研究:程度测算与影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2017,(2):127-141.
[21]宋暄.货币影响力、金融脆弱度与资本账户开放——基于新兴市场国家的研究[J].金融论坛,2017,(10):53-66.
[22]徐国祥,蔡文靖.金融发展下资本账户开放对货币国际化的影响[J].国际金融研究,2018,(5):5-15.
[23]严佳佳,郭明华,何乐融.人民币国际化的制约:资本账户未开发还是金融市场欠发达[J].经济学家,2018,(8):67-74
[24]杨荣海.当前货币国际化进程中的资本账户开放路径效应分析[J].国际金融研究,2014,(4):50-61.
[25]杨荣海,李亚波.资本账户开放对人民币国际化“货币锚”地位的影响分析[J].经济研究,2017,(1):136-150.
[26]赵柯.工业竞争力、资本账户开放与货币国际化——德国马克的国际化为什么比日元成功[J].世界经济与政治,2013,(12):140-155.
(1)关于世界银行全球治理指标的构建过程及其他相关信息,详见Kaufmann等(2011)的研究。
(2)由于IMF的COFER数据库公布的澳大利亚元和加拿大元数据时间跨度为2012~2017年,人民币数据时间跨度为2016~2017年,故本文样本数据为非平衡面板数据。
(3)由于各成员加入欧元区的时间不同,故不同年份加权平均时所包含的成员数量也不同。
(1)本文的这一结论与赵柯(2013)、Eichengreen和kawai(2014)的研究结论一致,他们也指出简单地解除资本管制并非一定能推动货币国际化的进程,只有在国内制度环境较好的背景下,资本账户开放对货币国际化的促进作用才能有效发挥。