基于系统动力学的绿色办公建筑性能差异分析方法及应用
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摘要
针对绿色办公建筑的性能差异问题,引入系统动力学方法,对时空分散的性能差异因素进行了深入挖掘和整合,建立了因果回路图,揭示了绿色办公建筑在一系列技术与社会因素相互关联与反馈作用下产生性能差异的动态机理。研究发现:实际性能方面,因果回路图不仅验证了用户行为和运维方的设备运行策略是两大主要因素,而且发现二者之间存在一系列相互关联与反馈;预期性能方面,存在设计预期与运行预期之分,我国绿色建筑标准是影响预期性能的直接因素,而后评估对绿色建筑标准的修改与完善有重要作用,从而间接影响预期性能。
To analyse the formation mechanism of performance gap in green office buildings, introduces the system dynamics approach to investigate technical and social factors affiliated to different stakeholders in different stages of buildings life cycle. Establishes a causal loop diagram of performance gap. Regarding the actual performance, it is not only confirmed that occupants' behavior and facilities operation strategy are the main influencing factors, but also revealed that there have interconnections between occupants and facility managers. Regarding the expected performance, there is difference between expected design performance and expected operation performance. Green building standard directly affects expected performance, and will be modified and improved by post occupancy evaluation, which indirectly affects expected performance.
To analyse the formation mechanism of performance gap in green office buildings, introduces the system dynamics approach to investigate technical and social factors affiliated to different stakeholders in different stages of buildings life cycle. Establishes a causal loop diagram of performance gap. Regarding the actual performance, it is not only confirmed that occupants' behavior and facilities operation strategy are the main influencing factors, but also revealed that there have interconnections between occupants and facility managers. Regarding the expected performance, there is difference between expected design performance and expected operation performance. Green building standard directly affects expected performance, and will be modified and improved by post occupancy evaluation, which indirectly affects expected performance.
引文
[1] 林波荣. 绿色建筑性能模拟优化方法[M]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015:1- 6
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[6] KORJENIC A, BEDNAR T. Validation and evaluation of total energy use in office buildings: a case study[J]. Automation in Construction, 2012, 23: 64- 70
[7] MENEZES A C, CRIPPS A, BOUCHLAGHEM D, et al. Predicted vs. actual energy performance of non-domestic buildings: using post-occupancy evaluation data to reduce the performance gap[J]. Applied Energy, 2012, 97: 355- 364
[8] HALDI F, ROBINSON D. On the behaviour and adaptation of office occupants[J]. Building and Environment, 2008, 43(12): 2163- 2177
[9] YAN D, O’BRIEN W, HONG T, et al. Occupant behavior modeling for building performance simulation: current state and future challenges[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2015, 107: 264- 278
[10] DASGUPTA A, PRODROMOU A, MUMOVIC D. Operational versus designed performance of low carbon schools in England: bridging a credibility gap[J]. HVAC&R Research, 2012, 18(1/2): 37- 50
[11] BORDASS B, COHEN R, STANDEVEN M, et al. Assessing building performance in use 3: energy performance of the Probe buildings[J]. Building Research and Information, 2001, 29(2): 114- 128
[12] JU C, NING Y, PAN W. A review of interdependence of sustainable building[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2016, 56: 120- 127
[13] SWARUP L, KORKMAZ S, RILEY D. Project delivery metrics for sustainable, high-performance buildings[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2011, 137(12): 1043- 1051
[14] YANG R J, ZOU P X W. Stakeholder-associated risks and their interactions in complex green building projects: a social network model[J]. Building and Environment, 2014, 73: 208- 222
[15] NING Y, LI Y, YANG S, et al. Exploring socio-technical features of green interior design of residential buildings: indicators, interdependence and embeddedness[J]. Sustainability, 2016, 9(1): 33
[16] FORRESTER J W. Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1958, 36(4): 37- 66
[17] 钟永光,贾晓菁,钱颖,等. 系统动力学[M]. 2版. 北京:科学出版社,2013:19- 34
[18] JEON C, SHIN J. Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: photovoltaic technology case[J]. Energy, 2014, 66: 447- 457
[19] ASLANI A, HELO P, NAARANOJA M. Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: system dynamics approach[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 113: 758- 765
[20] ABDELKAFI N, T?USCHER K. Business models for sustainability from a system dynamics perspective[J]. Organization and Environment, 2016, 29(1): 74- 96
[21] BLOODGOOD J M, HORNSBY J S, BURKEMPER A C, et al. A system dynamics perspective of corporate entrepreneurship[J]. Small Business Economics, 2015, 45(2): 383- 402
[22] RAHMANDAD H, WEISSD M. Dynamics of concurrent software development[J]. System Dynamics Review, 2009, 25(3): 224- 249
[23] HAN S, LOVE P, PE?A-MORA F. A system dynamics model for assessing the impacts of design errors in construction projects[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2013, 57(9): 2044- 2053
[24] HANG W, LI X. Application of system dynamics for evaluating truck weight regulations[J]. Transport Policy, 2010, 17(4): 240- 250
[25] KEILHACKER M L, MINNER S. Supply chain risk management for critical commodities: a system dynamics model for the case of the rare earth elements[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2017, 125: 349- 362
[26] ANGERHOFER B J, ANGELIDES M C. System dynamics modelling in supply chain management: research review[C]// Proceedings of the 32nd Conference on Winter Simulation, 2000: 342- 351
[27] LYNEIS J M, FORD D N. System dynamics applied to project management: a survey, assessment, and directions for future research[J]. System Dynamics Review, 2007, 23(2/3): 157- 189
[28] SHEPHERD S P. A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation[J]. Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, 2014, 2(2): 83- 105
[29] ONAT N C, EGILMEZ G, TATARI O. Towards greening the US residential building stock: a system dynamics approach[J]. Building and Environment, 2014, 78: 68- 80
[30] SIM J, SIM J. The effect of new carbon emission reduction targets on an apartment building in South Korea[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2016, 127: 637- 647
[31] FAZELI R, DAVIDSDOTTIR B. Energy performance of dwelling stock in Iceland: system dynamics approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 167: 1345- 1353
[32] VENNIX J A M. Group model-building: tackling messy problems[J]. System Dynamics Review, 1999, 15(4): 379- 401
[33] ZIMMERMANN N, BLACK L, SHRUBSOLE C, et al. Meaning-making in the process of participatory system dynamics research[C]//Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2015: 19- 23
[34] VIDEIRA N, ANTUNES P, SANTOS R, et al. A participatory modelling approach to support integrated sustainability assessment processes[J]. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 2010, 27(4): 446- 460
[35] ANDERSEN D F, VENNIX J A M, RICHARDSON G P, et al. Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2007, 58(5): 691- 694
[36] BERARDI U. Stakeholders’ influence on the adoption of energy-saving technologies in Italian homes[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 60: 520- 530
[37] WONG L T, MUIK W. An energy performance assessment for indoor environmental quality (IEQ) acceptance in air-conditioned offices[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2009, 50(5): 1362- 1367
[38] MUIK W. Energy policy for integrating the building environmental performance model of an air conditioned building in a subtropical climate[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2006, 47(15): 2059- 2069
[39] MUI K W, WONG L T, LAW L Y. An energy benchmarking model for ventilation systems of air-conditioned offices in subtropical climates[J]. Applied Energy, 2007, 84(1): 89- 98
[40] 宋凌,李宏军. 运行使用阶段绿色建筑评价标识实践浅析[J]. 建筑科学,2011,27(2):14- 16,60
[2] 叶青. 绿色建筑GPR-CN综合性能评价标准与方法——中荷绿色建筑评价体系整合研究[D].天津:天津大学,2016:217- 219
[3] DE WILDE P. The gap between predicted and measured energy performance of buildings: a framework for investigation[J]. Automation in Construction, 2014, 41: 40- 49
[4] 林波荣,刘彦辰,裴祖峰. 我国绿色办公建筑运行能耗及室内环境品质实测研究[J]. 暖通空调,2015,45(3):1- 8,21
[5] NEWSHAM G R, MANCINI S, BIRT B J. Do LEED-certified buildings save energy? Yes, but…[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2009, 41(8): 897- 905
[6] KORJENIC A, BEDNAR T. Validation and evaluation of total energy use in office buildings: a case study[J]. Automation in Construction, 2012, 23: 64- 70
[7] MENEZES A C, CRIPPS A, BOUCHLAGHEM D, et al. Predicted vs. actual energy performance of non-domestic buildings: using post-occupancy evaluation data to reduce the performance gap[J]. Applied Energy, 2012, 97: 355- 364
[8] HALDI F, ROBINSON D. On the behaviour and adaptation of office occupants[J]. Building and Environment, 2008, 43(12): 2163- 2177
[9] YAN D, O’BRIEN W, HONG T, et al. Occupant behavior modeling for building performance simulation: current state and future challenges[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2015, 107: 264- 278
[10] DASGUPTA A, PRODROMOU A, MUMOVIC D. Operational versus designed performance of low carbon schools in England: bridging a credibility gap[J]. HVAC&R Research, 2012, 18(1/2): 37- 50
[11] BORDASS B, COHEN R, STANDEVEN M, et al. Assessing building performance in use 3: energy performance of the Probe buildings[J]. Building Research and Information, 2001, 29(2): 114- 128
[12] JU C, NING Y, PAN W. A review of interdependence of sustainable building[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2016, 56: 120- 127
[13] SWARUP L, KORKMAZ S, RILEY D. Project delivery metrics for sustainable, high-performance buildings[J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 2011, 137(12): 1043- 1051
[14] YANG R J, ZOU P X W. Stakeholder-associated risks and their interactions in complex green building projects: a social network model[J]. Building and Environment, 2014, 73: 208- 222
[15] NING Y, LI Y, YANG S, et al. Exploring socio-technical features of green interior design of residential buildings: indicators, interdependence and embeddedness[J]. Sustainability, 2016, 9(1): 33
[16] FORRESTER J W. Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers[J]. Harvard Business Review, 1958, 36(4): 37- 66
[17] 钟永光,贾晓菁,钱颖,等. 系统动力学[M]. 2版. 北京:科学出版社,2013:19- 34
[18] JEON C, SHIN J. Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: photovoltaic technology case[J]. Energy, 2014, 66: 447- 457
[19] ASLANI A, HELO P, NAARANOJA M. Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: system dynamics approach[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 113: 758- 765
[20] ABDELKAFI N, T?USCHER K. Business models for sustainability from a system dynamics perspective[J]. Organization and Environment, 2016, 29(1): 74- 96
[21] BLOODGOOD J M, HORNSBY J S, BURKEMPER A C, et al. A system dynamics perspective of corporate entrepreneurship[J]. Small Business Economics, 2015, 45(2): 383- 402
[22] RAHMANDAD H, WEISSD M. Dynamics of concurrent software development[J]. System Dynamics Review, 2009, 25(3): 224- 249
[23] HAN S, LOVE P, PE?A-MORA F. A system dynamics model for assessing the impacts of design errors in construction projects[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2013, 57(9): 2044- 2053
[24] HANG W, LI X. Application of system dynamics for evaluating truck weight regulations[J]. Transport Policy, 2010, 17(4): 240- 250
[25] KEILHACKER M L, MINNER S. Supply chain risk management for critical commodities: a system dynamics model for the case of the rare earth elements[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2017, 125: 349- 362
[26] ANGERHOFER B J, ANGELIDES M C. System dynamics modelling in supply chain management: research review[C]// Proceedings of the 32nd Conference on Winter Simulation, 2000: 342- 351
[27] LYNEIS J M, FORD D N. System dynamics applied to project management: a survey, assessment, and directions for future research[J]. System Dynamics Review, 2007, 23(2/3): 157- 189
[28] SHEPHERD S P. A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation[J]. Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, 2014, 2(2): 83- 105
[29] ONAT N C, EGILMEZ G, TATARI O. Towards greening the US residential building stock: a system dynamics approach[J]. Building and Environment, 2014, 78: 68- 80
[30] SIM J, SIM J. The effect of new carbon emission reduction targets on an apartment building in South Korea[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2016, 127: 637- 647
[31] FAZELI R, DAVIDSDOTTIR B. Energy performance of dwelling stock in Iceland: system dynamics approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 167: 1345- 1353
[32] VENNIX J A M. Group model-building: tackling messy problems[J]. System Dynamics Review, 1999, 15(4): 379- 401
[33] ZIMMERMANN N, BLACK L, SHRUBSOLE C, et al. Meaning-making in the process of participatory system dynamics research[C]//Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2015: 19- 23
[34] VIDEIRA N, ANTUNES P, SANTOS R, et al. A participatory modelling approach to support integrated sustainability assessment processes[J]. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 2010, 27(4): 446- 460
[35] ANDERSEN D F, VENNIX J A M, RICHARDSON G P, et al. Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2007, 58(5): 691- 694
[36] BERARDI U. Stakeholders’ influence on the adoption of energy-saving technologies in Italian homes[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 60: 520- 530
[37] WONG L T, MUIK W. An energy performance assessment for indoor environmental quality (IEQ) acceptance in air-conditioned offices[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2009, 50(5): 1362- 1367
[38] MUIK W. Energy policy for integrating the building environmental performance model of an air conditioned building in a subtropical climate[J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2006, 47(15): 2059- 2069
[39] MUI K W, WONG L T, LAW L Y. An energy benchmarking model for ventilation systems of air-conditioned offices in subtropical climates[J]. Applied Energy, 2007, 84(1): 89- 98
[40] 宋凌,李宏军. 运行使用阶段绿色建筑评价标识实践浅析[J]. 建筑科学,2011,27(2):14- 16,60