老工业城市收缩与城市紧凑相关性研究——以吉林四平市为例
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摘要
应用熵值法与收缩度模型对2000—2016年四平市城市紧凑度与收缩度进行测算分析的基础上,借助RStudio软件,对四平市城市收缩度与紧凑度进行相关性研究。研究发现:①四平市自2012年人口开始流失(SSD>0),出现城市收缩的现象,且收缩度不断上升。②2000—2016年四平市城市紧凑度(JCD)整体呈上升趋势,5个一级指标中土地利用紧凑以2009年为节点呈现先下降后上升的趋势,经济紧凑、基础设施紧凑、生态环境协同都基本保持波动上升态势,人口紧凑总体趋势以下降为主。③2000—2016年四平市城市收缩度(SSD)与紧凑度(JCD)相关性达0.7以上,具有显著相关性。5个一级指标中经济紧凑度与SSD的相关性最大,影响最为显著,其次为基础设施紧凑、生态环境协同,人口紧凑与SSD为负相关,相关性最小的为土地利用紧凑。结合2000—2016年四平市JCD及5个指标的变化趋势,认为其对四平市SSD具有较大的驱动作用。通过以2012年为节点的时段分析可知,随着四平市社会经济的不断发展,人民对生活水平要求的不断提高,城市紧凑度对人口流动、城市收缩的影响逐渐加大。应调整四平市的产业结构,促进产业优化升级;出具优惠政策,吸引高精尖人才回流;摒弃单一的、以增长为导向的规划理念;改善城市基础设施建设和生态环境,提高城市宜居性;抓住城市收缩的契机,调整城市用地空间布局,打造紧凑型城市空间结构,促进城市良性发展。
Taking Siping City-an old industrial city in Northeast China-as the research area, this paper measure the urban compactness ratio and shrinking in Siping City from 2000 to 2016 applying the entropy method and the contraction model, and analyzes the correlation between urban shrinkage and compactness ratio in Siping by the R-Studio software.The results show that:1) The population of Siping City has been lost since 2012(SSD>0), so the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has occurred at that time and will continue to rise.2) From 2000 to 2016, Siping City's urban compactness ratio(JCD) shows an overall upward trend. The land use compactness(LUC) of the five first-level indicators shows a trend of decline first and then rising in 2009, the economic compactness(EOC), infrastructure compactness(IFC) and ecoenvironmental synergy(EEC) basically maintain a fluctuating upward trend, and the overall trend of population compactness(POC) is mainly down. 3)From 2000 to 2016, the correlation coefficient between urban shrinkage(SSD) and compactness ratio(JCD) in Siping City is| above 0.7. Among the five first-level indicators, EOC has the most correlation with SSD, which means that it has the most significant impact on urban shrinkage, followed by IFC, EEC. POC was negatively correlated with SSD, and the least relevant to SSD is LUC. Combined with the trend of JCD and five indicators in Siping City in 2000-2016, it has a greater driving effect on SSD. Taking 2012 as the time node, it is known that with the continuous development of society and economy in Siping City, and people's demands for living standards are constantly improving, the impact of urban compactness on population mobility and urban shrinkage is gradually increasing. It puts forward some suggestions as followings:adjusting the industrial structure of Siping City, promoting the industrial optimization and upgrading, formulating preferential policies to attract high-quality talents, abandoning a single, growth-oriented planning concept, improving urban infrastructure construction and ecological environment to enhance the livability of Siping City; seizing the opportunity of population loss and urban shrinkage, adjusting the spatial layout of urban land, creating a compact urban spatial structure, and promoting the benign development of the city.
Taking Siping City-an old industrial city in Northeast China-as the research area, this paper measure the urban compactness ratio and shrinking in Siping City from 2000 to 2016 applying the entropy method and the contraction model, and analyzes the correlation between urban shrinkage and compactness ratio in Siping by the R-Studio software.The results show that:1) The population of Siping City has been lost since 2012(SSD>0), so the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has occurred at that time and will continue to rise.2) From 2000 to 2016, Siping City's urban compactness ratio(JCD) shows an overall upward trend. The land use compactness(LUC) of the five first-level indicators shows a trend of decline first and then rising in 2009, the economic compactness(EOC), infrastructure compactness(IFC) and ecoenvironmental synergy(EEC) basically maintain a fluctuating upward trend, and the overall trend of population compactness(POC) is mainly down. 3)From 2000 to 2016, the correlation coefficient between urban shrinkage(SSD) and compactness ratio(JCD) in Siping City is| above 0.7. Among the five first-level indicators, EOC has the most correlation with SSD, which means that it has the most significant impact on urban shrinkage, followed by IFC, EEC. POC was negatively correlated with SSD, and the least relevant to SSD is LUC. Combined with the trend of JCD and five indicators in Siping City in 2000-2016, it has a greater driving effect on SSD. Taking 2012 as the time node, it is known that with the continuous development of society and economy in Siping City, and people's demands for living standards are constantly improving, the impact of urban compactness on population mobility and urban shrinkage is gradually increasing. It puts forward some suggestions as followings:adjusting the industrial structure of Siping City, promoting the industrial optimization and upgrading, formulating preferential policies to attract high-quality talents, abandoning a single, growth-oriented planning concept, improving urban infrastructure construction and ecological environment to enhance the livability of Siping City; seizing the opportunity of population loss and urban shrinkage, adjusting the spatial layout of urban land, creating a compact urban spatial structure, and promoting the benign development of the city.
引文
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[8]Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies[R].International Journal of Urban&Regional Rese,2012,36(2):261-280.
[9]Reckien D,Cristina M F.Why Do Cities Shrink?[J].European Planning Studies,2011,19(8):1 375-1 397.
[10]Wiechmann T.Errors Expected-Aligning Urban Strategy with Demographic Uncertainty in Shrinking Citiest[R].Internation‐al Planning Studies,2008,13(4):431-446.
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[13]Kimisato Oda,Christoph D D Rupprecht,Kazuaki Tsuchiya,etal.Urban Agriculture as a Sustainability Transition Strategy for Shrinking Cities?Land Use Change Trajectory as an Obstacle in Kyoto City,Japan[J].Sustainability,2018,10(4):1 048.
[14]高舒琦.收缩城市研究综述[J].城市规划学刊,2015(3):39-39.
[15]黄玮婷.英国城市收缩现象的经验及启示[J].规划师,2014(s5):205-209.
[16]马佐澎,李诚固,张婧,等.发达国家城市收缩现象及其对中国的启示[J].人文地理,2016(2):13-17.
[17]杨琳,何邕健.吉林省收缩城市的空间分布与影响因素分析[J].西部人居环境学刊,2018,33(3):21-27.
[18]刘春阳,杨培峰.中外收缩城市动因机制及表现特征比较研究[J].现代城市研究,2017(3):64-71.
[19]林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,等.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析:基于人口与经济变化的视角[J].人文地理,2017(1):82-89.
[20]李元伟.吉林省城市收缩现狀与形成机制研究[D].长春:东北师范大学,2016.
[21]马智莉.伊春市城市收缩特征及驱动力评价研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2017.
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[23]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):36-43.
[24]MoliníF,Salgado M.Artificial surface and single-family housing in spain,in the context of the debate between compact and dispersed city[J].Boletín de la Asociación de Geógrafos Es‐pa?oles,2010,54:413-416.
[25]Kostas M.Is compact city livable?The impact of compact versus sprawled neighbourhoods on neighbourhood satisfaction[J].Urban Studies,2017,55(11):2 408-2 430.
[26]Westerink J,Haase D,Bauer A,etal.Dealing with Sustainability Trade-Offs of the Compact City in Peri-Urban Planning Across European City Regions[J].European Planning Stud‐ies,2013,21(4):413-497.
[27]In-ho K,Se-hee N.The Strategy of Compact City in Japan Local Governments[J].Korean Association For Policy Science,2017,21(3):173-197.
[28]Park H S.A Study of Urban Regeneration in Local Cities through the Establishment of Compact City in Japan-Compara‐tive Analysis about the Establishment of Multi-core Network Type Compact City and centralized Compact City[J].Journal of the residential environment institute of Korea,2018,16(2):197-219.
[29]Kang M.Three Inherent Conflicts over Compact City:Social Welfare vs Individual Interest[J].Journal of The Korean Re‐gional Development Association,2012,24(4):27-40.
[30]TaeHoon M.System Thinking Perspective on the Dynamic Relationship between Spatial Characteristics of Compact City and Urban Sustainability[J].Korean System Dynamics Re‐view,2010,11(2):5-28.
[31]Chung J Y.A Study on the Urban Development Direction of Overseas and Domestic Sustainable Compact City[J].Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning&Design,2011,27(12):297-306.
[32]李健,夏帅伟.中国特大城市紧凑度测度及多重效应相关分析[J].城市发展研究,2016,23(11):109-116.
[33]王珏,袁丰.基于演化树模型的长江三角洲城市紧凑度综合评价[J].长江流域资源与环境2014,23(6):741-750.
[34]田成诗,李金.大型城市紧凑度与能源效率的关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(10):1 781-1 795.
[35]田柳,陈江龙,高金龙.城市空间结构紧凑与土地利用效率耦合分析:以南京市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):26-34.
[36]韩刚,袁家冬,王兆博.吉林省城市紧凑度与城市效率的时空演变及相关性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):20-27.
[37]Schetke S,Haase D.Multi-criteria assessment of socio-environmental aspescts in shrinking cities.Experiences from east‐ern Germany[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2008(7):483-503.
[38]张京祥,冯灿芳,陈浩.城市收缩的国际研究与中国本土化探索[J].国际城市规划,2017,32(5):1-9.
[39]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):17-22.
[40]中华人民共和国公安部.常住人口管理信息规范[Z].中华人民共和国公共行业标,GA214.17-2005.
[41]黄永斌,董锁成,白永平,等.中国地级以上城市紧凑度时空演变特征研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):531-538.
[42]秦成,毛蒋兴,车良革.基于熵值法的城市紧凑度综合测度及其调控对策研究--以广西为例[J].规划师,2010,26(8):109-112.
[43]张卫枚,方勤敏,刘婷.基于灰色关联度的城市紧凑度评价:以环长株潭城市群为例[J].城市问题,2016(10):37-43.
[44]姜鹏.基于中日韩实例研究的收缩城市应对思辨[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):2-7.
[2]Oswalt P,Rieniets T,Schirmel H,et al.Atlas of shrinking cities[M].Berlin:Hage Cantz,2006.
[3]Schilling J,Logan J.Greening the Rust Belt:A Green Infrastructure Model for Right Sizing America's Shrinking Cities[J].Journal of the American Planning Association,2008,74(4):451-466.
[4]Pallagst K.Shrinking cities-planning challenges from an international perspective[R].Cities Growing Smaller,2008.
[5]Haase D,Lautenbach S,Seppel Rt.Modeling and simulating residential mobility in a shrinking city using an agent-based ap‐proach[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2010,25(10):1 225-1 240.
[6]Emmanuèle C S,Sylvie F.Schrumpfende St?dte in Westeuropa:Fallstudien aus Frankreich und Grossbritannien[J].Berliner De‐batte Initial,2007(10):22-35.
[7]Blanco H,Alberti M,Olshansky R,et al.Shaken,shrinking,hot,impoverished and informal:Emerging research agendas in plan‐ning[J].Progress in Planning,2009,72(4):195-250.
[8]Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies[R].International Journal of Urban&Regional Rese,2012,36(2):261-280.
[9]Reckien D,Cristina M F.Why Do Cities Shrink?[J].European Planning Studies,2011,19(8):1 375-1 397.
[10]Wiechmann T.Errors Expected-Aligning Urban Strategy with Demographic Uncertainty in Shrinking Citiest[R].Internation‐al Planning Studies,2008,13(4):431-446.
[11]Hollander J B,Németh J.The bounds of smart decline:a foundational theory for planning shrinking cities[J].Housing Poli‐cy Debate,2011,21(3):349-367.
[12]Dustin L H,William D Shuster,Audrey L Mayer,etal.Sustainability for Shrinking Cities[J].Sustainability,2016,8(9):911.
[13]Kimisato Oda,Christoph D D Rupprecht,Kazuaki Tsuchiya,etal.Urban Agriculture as a Sustainability Transition Strategy for Shrinking Cities?Land Use Change Trajectory as an Obstacle in Kyoto City,Japan[J].Sustainability,2018,10(4):1 048.
[14]高舒琦.收缩城市研究综述[J].城市规划学刊,2015(3):39-39.
[15]黄玮婷.英国城市收缩现象的经验及启示[J].规划师,2014(s5):205-209.
[16]马佐澎,李诚固,张婧,等.发达国家城市收缩现象及其对中国的启示[J].人文地理,2016(2):13-17.
[17]杨琳,何邕健.吉林省收缩城市的空间分布与影响因素分析[J].西部人居环境学刊,2018,33(3):21-27.
[18]刘春阳,杨培峰.中外收缩城市动因机制及表现特征比较研究[J].现代城市研究,2017(3):64-71.
[19]林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,等.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析:基于人口与经济变化的视角[J].人文地理,2017(1):82-89.
[20]李元伟.吉林省城市收缩现狀与形成机制研究[D].长春:东北师范大学,2016.
[21]马智莉.伊春市城市收缩特征及驱动力评价研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2017.
[22]吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):26-35.
[23]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制[J].现代城市研究,2015(9):36-43.
[24]MoliníF,Salgado M.Artificial surface and single-family housing in spain,in the context of the debate between compact and dispersed city[J].Boletín de la Asociación de Geógrafos Es‐pa?oles,2010,54:413-416.
[25]Kostas M.Is compact city livable?The impact of compact versus sprawled neighbourhoods on neighbourhood satisfaction[J].Urban Studies,2017,55(11):2 408-2 430.
[26]Westerink J,Haase D,Bauer A,etal.Dealing with Sustainability Trade-Offs of the Compact City in Peri-Urban Planning Across European City Regions[J].European Planning Stud‐ies,2013,21(4):413-497.
[27]In-ho K,Se-hee N.The Strategy of Compact City in Japan Local Governments[J].Korean Association For Policy Science,2017,21(3):173-197.
[28]Park H S.A Study of Urban Regeneration in Local Cities through the Establishment of Compact City in Japan-Compara‐tive Analysis about the Establishment of Multi-core Network Type Compact City and centralized Compact City[J].Journal of the residential environment institute of Korea,2018,16(2):197-219.
[29]Kang M.Three Inherent Conflicts over Compact City:Social Welfare vs Individual Interest[J].Journal of The Korean Re‐gional Development Association,2012,24(4):27-40.
[30]TaeHoon M.System Thinking Perspective on the Dynamic Relationship between Spatial Characteristics of Compact City and Urban Sustainability[J].Korean System Dynamics Re‐view,2010,11(2):5-28.
[31]Chung J Y.A Study on the Urban Development Direction of Overseas and Domestic Sustainable Compact City[J].Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning&Design,2011,27(12):297-306.
[32]李健,夏帅伟.中国特大城市紧凑度测度及多重效应相关分析[J].城市发展研究,2016,23(11):109-116.
[33]王珏,袁丰.基于演化树模型的长江三角洲城市紧凑度综合评价[J].长江流域资源与环境2014,23(6):741-750.
[34]田成诗,李金.大型城市紧凑度与能源效率的关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(10):1 781-1 795.
[35]田柳,陈江龙,高金龙.城市空间结构紧凑与土地利用效率耦合分析:以南京市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):26-34.
[36]韩刚,袁家冬,王兆博.吉林省城市紧凑度与城市效率的时空演变及相关性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):20-27.
[37]Schetke S,Haase D.Multi-criteria assessment of socio-environmental aspescts in shrinking cities.Experiences from east‐ern Germany[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2008(7):483-503.
[38]张京祥,冯灿芳,陈浩.城市收缩的国际研究与中国本土化探索[J].国际城市规划,2017,32(5):1-9.
[39]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):17-22.
[40]中华人民共和国公安部.常住人口管理信息规范[Z].中华人民共和国公共行业标,GA214.17-2005.
[41]黄永斌,董锁成,白永平,等.中国地级以上城市紧凑度时空演变特征研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):531-538.
[42]秦成,毛蒋兴,车良革.基于熵值法的城市紧凑度综合测度及其调控对策研究--以广西为例[J].规划师,2010,26(8):109-112.
[43]张卫枚,方勤敏,刘婷.基于灰色关联度的城市紧凑度评价:以环长株潭城市群为例[J].城市问题,2016(10):37-43.
[44]姜鹏.基于中日韩实例研究的收缩城市应对思辨[J].现代城市研究,2016(2):2-7.