摘要
黄柏河东支流域为宜昌市的生活、工业用水和农业用水提供了重要保障,是宜昌市重要水源地,研究气候变化情景下径流量的变化对该流域经济发展和生态保护具有重要意义.本文使用SWAT模型模拟黄柏河东支流域不同气候变化情景下的月径流变化,将流域下游尚家河水库为研究区出口,以2006~2012年为率定期,2013~2016年为验证期,首先将尚家河水库入库径流还原为天然月径流,进而建立流域SWAT模型并对其进行检验;设置降雨与气温不同组合条件下的34种情景作为SWAT模型输入,分析径流量变化.结果表明:在率定期与验证期的径流模拟效率系数和决定系数均达到0.85,满足精度要求.气候变化情景下,月径流增加量最大的情景为温度降低2℃,降雨增大6%,月径流增加量1 334.88万m3,减小量最大的情景是温度升高4℃,降雨减少2%,月径流减少量839.80万m3.月径流对降雨和温度变化呈现非线性响应.研究结果可为流域水资源管理提供决策支持.
The Huangbaihe River East Branch provides an important guarantee for the living,industrial and agricultural water use in Yichang City.It is an important water source in Yichang City.The study of runoff changes under climate change scenarios is of great significance to the economic development and ecological protection of the basin.In this paper,the SWAT model is used to simulate the monthly runoff variation under different climate change scenarios in the East Branch of Huangbaihe River.The Shangjiahe Reservoir in the lower reaches of the basin is the export of the study area.The period is from 2006 to 2012,and the period from 2013 to 2016 is the verification period.The inflow runoff of Shangjiahe Reservoir is returned to natural monthly runoff;and then the SWAT model of the basin is established and tested.34 scenarios under different combinations of rainfall and temperature are set as SWAT model inputs to analyze runoff changes.The results show that the efficiency coefficient and the determination coefficient of runoff simulation in the periodic and verification period are both 0.85,which meets the accuracy requirements.Under the climate change scenario,the scenario with the largest monthly runoff increase is a temperature decrease of 2 ℃,a rainfall increase of6%,and a monthly runoff increase of 13.34 million m3.The maximum reduction scenario is a temperature increase of 4 ℃ and a decrease of 2%.The monthly runoff reduction is 8.398 million m3.Monthly runoff presents a nonlinear response to rainfall and temperature changes.Research results can provide decision support for water resources management in river basins.
引文
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