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• 标题：Comments on the paper “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system” by Toulkeridis et al. (2019)
• 关键词：Earthquake precursor,Radiation,GPS,Forecast,Early war
• 作者：Hugo Yepes,Jean-Mathieu Nocquet,Benjamin Bernard,Pablo B. Palacios,Sandro Vaca,Santiago Aguaiza

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 AN style="FONT-FAMILY: AdvOT596495f2; COLOR: rgb(0,0,0); FONT-SIZE: 7.173pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">In the paper entitled pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">“pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">radioactive and geodetic processes pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">– pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">Powerful tools for an early warning systempt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">”pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 16pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">th pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">and that their pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifipt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">ndings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">fifipt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">nd: (1) the success pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5 %; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">(2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their pt; mso-spacerun: 'yes'">proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes.