On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

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• 作者：Yevgeny Aksenov^a ; ^{yka@noc.ac.uk} ; ^{yka@noc.soton.c.uk} ; Ekaterina E. Popova^a ; ^{ekp@noc.ac.uk} ; Andrew Yool^a ; ^{axy@noc.ac.uk} ; A.J. George Nurser^a ; ^{agn@noc.ac.uk} ; Timothy D. Williams^b ; ^{timothy.williams@nersc.no} ; Laurent Bertino^b ; ^{laurent.bertino@nersc.no} ; Jon Bergh^b ; ^{jon.bergh@nersc.no}
• 关键词：Arctic Ocean ; Arctic shipping routes ; CO2 emission scenarios ; Climate change projections ; Sea ice ; Marginal Ice Zone ; Ocean waves
• 刊名：Marine Policy
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：75
• 期：Complete
• 页码：300-317
• 全文大小：15880 K
• 卷排序：75

文摘

A high-resolution projection for the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century is examined. Future navigability of the Arctic sea routes and sailing times are assessed. Increased wind and waves transform pack ice into fragmented Marginal Ice Zone. Arctic transit shipping saves time and fuel but may add to Arctic warming. Forecasting requirements for the new emerging state of the Arctic are discussed.