Endogenous rise and collapse of housing price: An agent-based model of the housing market

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• 作者：Jiaqi Ge
• 关键词：Agent-based model ; Housing market ; Housing bubble ; Lenient lending ; Speculation
• 刊名：Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：62
• 期：Complete
• 页码：182-198
• 全文大小：4225 K
• 卷排序：62

文摘

We attempt to answer the research questions: Can housing bubbles arise and collapse without external shocks, and what are the causes of housing bubbles? In additional to the household, the developer and the real estate agent, we include the speculator and the bank, both of which play an essential role in the rise of housing bubbles. Housing price can rise and collapse endogenously without external shocks. The two necessary conditions for a housing bubble are leniency and speculation. We find that modest lending criteria increases homeownership rate through stabilized housing price; whereas lenient lending criteria lowers homeownership rate through inflated housing price. Even in the absence of mortgage securitization, a bank still has an incentive to adopt lenient lending practices.