Leveraged bubbles

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• 作者：Ò ; scar Jordà ; ^a ; ^b ; ^{oscar.jorda@sf.frb.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; ^{ojorda@ucdavis.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Moritz Schularick^c ; ^d ; ^{moritz.schularick@uni-bonn.de" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Alan M. Taylor^b ; ^d ; ^e ; ^f ; ^{amtaylor@ucdavis.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Boom ; Bust ; Bank lending ; Debt overhang ; Crises ; Local projections
• 刊名：Journal of Monetary Economics
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：December 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：76
• 期：supp_S
• 页码：S1-S20
• 全文大小：675 K

文摘

What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 countries over the past 140 years. History shows that not all bubbles are alike. Some have enormous costs for the economy, while others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit booms, asset price bubbles increase financial crisis risks; upon collapse they tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon.