The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

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• 作者：Keywan Riahi^a ; ^{riahi@iiasa.ac.at} ; Detlef P. van Vuuren^b ; Elmar Kriegler^c ; Jae Edmonds^d ; Brian C. O&rsquo ; Neill^e ; Shinichiro Fujimori^f ; Nico Bauer^c ; Katherine Calvin^d ; Rob Dellink^g ; Oliver Fricko^a ; Wolfgang Lutz^a ; Alexander Popp^c ; Jesus Crespo Cuaresma^a ; Samir KC^a ; ^h ; Marian Leimbach^c ; Leiwen Jiang^e ; Tom Kram^b ; Shilpa Rao^a ; Johannes Emmerlingⁱ ; ^j ; Kristie Ebi^k ; Tomoko Hasegawa^f ; Petr Havlik^a ; Florian Humpenö ; der^c ; Lara Aleluia Da Silvaⁱ ; ^j ; Steve Smith^d ; Elke Stehfest^b ; Valentina Bosettiⁱ ; ^j ; ^l ; Jiyong Eom^d ; ^m ; David Gernaat^b ; Toshihiko Masui^f ; Joeri Rogelj^a ; Jessica Strefler^c ; Laurent Drouetⁱ ; ^j ; Volker Krey^a ; Gunnar Luderer^c ; Mathijs Harmsen^b ; Kiyoshi Takahashi^f ; Lavinia Baumstark^c ; Jonathan C. Doelman^b ; Mikiko Kainuma^f ; Zbigniew Klimont^a ; Giacomo Marangoniⁱ ; ^j ; Hermann Lotze-Campen^c ; ^p ; Michael Obersteiner^a ; Andrzej Tabeauⁿ ; Massimo Tavoniⁱ ; ^j ; ^o
• 关键词：Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ; SSP ; Climate change ; RCP ; Community scenarios ; Mitigation ; Adaptation
• 刊名：Global Environmental Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：42
• 期：Complete
• 页码：153-168
• 全文大小：3836 K
• 卷排序：42

文摘

We present an overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were developed as a community effort over the last years. The SSPs comprise five narratives and a set of driving forces. Our SSP scenarios quantify energy and land-use developments and associated uncertainties for greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. We conduct an SSP mitigation analysis, and estimate mitigation costs. We find that very low climate targets might be out of reach in SSPs featuring high challenges. The SSPs are now ready for use by the climate change research community.