Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions

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• 作者：Karima R. Nigmatulina ; Richard C. Larson
• 关键词：Stochastic modeling ; Pandemic flu ; OR in health services ; Heterogeneity ; Behavior
• 刊名：European Journal of Operational Research
• 出版年：2009
• 出版时间：1 June 2009
• 年：2009
• 卷：195
• 期：2
• 页码：613-627
• 全文大小：250 K

文摘

Focusing on mitigation strategies for global pandemic influenza, we use elementary mathematical models to evaluate the implementation and timing of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies such as travel restrictions, social distancing and improved hygiene. A spreadsheet model of infection spread between several linked heterogeneous communities is based on analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. Since human behavior will likely change during the course of a pandemic, thereby altering the dynamics of the disease, we incorporate a feedback parameter into our model to reflect altered behavior. Our results indicate that while a flu pandemic could be devastating; there are coping methods that when implemented quickly and correctly can significantly mitigate the severity of a global outbreak.