The valence gap: Economic cycles, perceptions of competence, and the party system

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• 作者：Ernesto Calvo^a ; ^{ecalvo@umd.edu} ; Kiyoung Chang^a ; ^{kiyoung.chang@gmail.com} ; Timothy Hellwig^b ; ^{thellwig@indiana.edu}
• 刊名：Electoral Studies
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：45
• 期：Complete
• 页码：163-172
• 全文大小：1359 K
• 卷排序：45

文摘

How does the economic cycle matter for political parties and party systems? This article presents a unified theory connecting economic cycles to party behavior and to party system fragmentation. We argue that a key but poorly studied determinant of party system performance is the difference in perceived competence among parties. The narrowing of differences in parties' valence stock, or the ‘valence gap’, has the effect of increasing the weight voters assign to parties' ideological positions and, in turn, increases the number of parties in the system. Analyses of German public opinion from 1990 to 2007 and of cross-sectional analysis of party valence characteristics from nine countries provides evidence in support of our claims. Overall, study findings show how economic growth and decline work through differences in parties' valence to shape the behavior of party systems.