Evaluation of uncertainties originating from the different modeling approaches applied to analyze regional groundwater flow in the Tono area of Japan

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Yuji Ijiri ; Hiromitsu Saegusa ; Atsushi Sawada ; Makoto Ono ; Kunio Watanabe ; Kenzi Karasaki ; Christine Doughty ; Michito Shimo ; Kenichi Fumimura
• 关键词：Modeling ; Uncertainty ; Heterogeneity
• 刊名：Journal of Contaminant Hydrology
• 出版年：2009
• 出版时间：26 January 2009
• 年：2009
• 卷：103
• 期：3-4
• 页码：168-181
• 全文大小：3395 K

文摘

Qualitative evaluation of the effects of uncertainties originating from scenario development, modeling approaches, and parameter values is an important subject in the area of safety assessment for high-level nuclear waste disposal sites. In this study, regional-scale groundwater flow analyses for the Tono area, Japan were conducted using three continuous models designed to handle heterogeneous porous media. We evaluated the simulation results to quantitatively analyze uncertainties originating from modeling approaches. We found that porous media heterogeneity is the main factor which causes uncertainties. We also found that uncertainties originating from modeling approaches greatly depend on the types of hydrological structures and heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity values in the domain assigned by modelers. Uncertainties originating from modeling approaches decrease as the amount of labor and time spent increase, and iterations between investigation and analyses increases.