Prediction of China's coal production-environmental pollution based on a hybrid genetic algorithm-system dynamics model

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• 作者：Shiwei Yu^a ; ^b ; ^c ; ^{ysw81993@sina.com} ; Yi-ming Wei^b ; ^c
• 关键词：Coal production ; Environmental pollution ; GA-SD prediction model
• 刊名：Energy Policy
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：March 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：42
• 期：Complete
• 页码：521-529
• 全文大小：606 K

文摘

This paper proposes a hybrid model based on genetic algorithm (GA) and system dynamics (SD) for coal production-environmental pollution load in China. GA has been utilized in the optimization of the parameters of the SD model to reduce implementation subjectivity. The chain of ¡°Economic development-coal demand-coal production-environmental pollution load?of China in 2030 was predicted, and scenarios were analyzed. Results show that: (1) GA performs well in optimizing the parameters of the SD model objectively and in simulating the historical data; (2) The demand for coal energy continuously increases, although the coal intensity has actually decreased because of China's persistent economic development. Furthermore, instead of reaching a turning point by 2030, the environmental pollution load continuously increases each year even under the scenario where coal intensity decreased by 20 % and investment in pollution abatement increased by 20 % ; (3) For abating the amount of ¡°three types of wastes? reducing the coal intensity is more effective than reducing the polluted production per tonne of coal and increasing investment in pollution control.